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re: Is Kalshi Biased?
Posted on 10/16/26 at 6:37 pm to IvoryBillMatt
Posted on 10/16/26 at 6:37 pm to IvoryBillMatt
Tell us what you think first.
Posted on 10/16/26 at 6:47 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
Tell us what you think first.
I don't have an opinion on it. If I had one, I would share it. I remember it being wildly inaccurate with Massie.
With polls, I don't know if there's an actual formula, by I would guess, on average, that Republicans out perform the polls by around 3% or so.
I wondered if there were some predictable bias with Kalshi.
Then, considering the MILLIONS of dollars spent on political campaigns, I wondered if a few million here and there would really manipulate the market. I didn't know if there were some kind of internal check that the platform could use (I know they have caught some insider trading).
Posted on 10/16/26 at 6:49 pm to rocksteady
quote:
have a not insignificant amount of money placed
I'm still kicking myself for not buying "Biden will not be the nominee" right after his fatal debate with Trump. Listening to leftist media that night it was obvious that the plan was to replace him.
Posted on 10/16/26 at 8:54 pm to IvoryBillMatt
Betting markets only have the same information everyone else does. If the information is bad, that will influence the betting market. If a betting market bucks that trend, that is something to pay attention to because it hints at a big enthusiasm gap that isn’t being accounted for, but given the bad polling you’d expect the betting markets to follow. Trust in Trump. He knows what he is doing
Posted on 10/17/26 at 9:39 am to imjustafatkid
quote:
This is a thread about betting markets?
He thinks they might be accurate.
Posted on 10/17/26 at 9:42 am to IvoryBillMatt
In liquid markets, kalshi/polymarket seem to do a pretty good job. Efficient market hypothesis in action. Those markets predicted Trump’s win pretty dang well in the face of vacillating polls heading into the election.
Posted on 10/17/26 at 10:17 am to rocksteady
quote:
and I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is and make it interesting
I took the great odds on Paxton right before Talafreako went missing. Bet $20 to win $50. Not big money, but I think Paxton isn’t getting his fair shake in the polls and that Paxton wins by 3%, we’ll see what happens
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