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Message
re: Iowa Selzer poll has Kamala in the lead
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:32 pm to alabamabuckeye
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:32 pm to alabamabuckeye
Accuracy is great.
Believability is also important.
Trump could lose on Tuesday. He won’t lose Iowa. And it won’t be close.
Believability is also important.
Trump could lose on Tuesday. He won’t lose Iowa. And it won’t be close.
1
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:33 pm to the808bass
Yea, this is the literal definition of a suppression poll.
If this was true it would be a Reagan level sweep for Harris.
If this was true it would be a Reagan level sweep for Harris.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:35 pm to Hamma1122
Yea, I am pessimistic, but anyone freaking out and believing this poll is literally retarded.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:35 pm to alabamabuckeye
quote:
This is what’s strange. She was the only one who had any accuracy in a sea of polling shite in 2016 and 2020. When the 2016 poll came out it sent shockwaves through confident Democrats.
But this poll makes no sense. This feels like it’s going to be an absolute nuke to her great reputation. I will eat a warm slice of Anderson Cooper’s arse if Kamala wins Iowa.
This post was edited on 11/2/24 at 6:36 pm
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:38 pm to The Boat
quote:Trump would be a literal reincarnation of Mondale if he lost Iowa. He would lose nearly every state.
But this poll makes no sense. This feels like it’s going to be an absolute nuke to her great reputation. I will eat a warm slice of Anderson Cooper’s arse if Kamala wins Iowa.
This is a 100% suppression poll.
This post was edited on 11/2/24 at 6:39 pm
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:39 pm to 32footsteps
quote:
Internal polling is what campaigns follow. If this was within 3 points either way they both would’ve been in Iowa and their surrogates would’ve been there too. Harris and her surrogates and Trump and his surrogates have not been in Iowa. Their internals are telling them that it’s not close and worth investing the time.
That’s the reality. Neither side has set foot in Iowa. They haven’t even had 2nd tier members of the campaign go there like a Mark Cuban. There only goi g to places where they have a shot. Trumps not going to AZ or NV which means he has either wrapped them up or lost them. Most believe the wrapped up. He’s spending his time in PA and NC above anywhere else and will wrap in MI.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:44 pm to Demonbengal
Here is how far from reality this poll is. If Trump only got 44% of the Iowa vote, he would have to have dropped from 897,672 votes in 2020 to almost 730,000 in 2024. He won Iowa 53 to 45 in 2020. He will most likely win it by more than that this year.They obviously can't poll Iowa well, because even in 2020 RCP/538 only had him up between 1 and 2% and he won by 8.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:44 pm to Demonbengal
Iowa will be 7+ plus for Trump. A lot of issues for land owners to vote on that usually don’t get out and vote.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:46 pm to Eric Nies Grind Time
quote:
No idea. I am shocked. I thought at best for Kamala it would be +3 for Trump.
and you believe this shite....lol
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:48 pm to Golgi Apparatus
quote:
Trump up 3.8 in Iowa is a massive red flag. Either Trump gets smashed in the election or this pollster will lose all of their built up reputation.
But to note, this is how polls work, there's 95% confidence and 5% chance that the poll is just totally off.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:48 pm to Mandtgr47
If this was accomplished through a vast conspiracy that had the capability to pull off
they would not show their hand on Iowa this early
I would love to play y'all in some high stakes poker
they would not show their hand on Iowa this early
I would love to play y'all in some high stakes poker
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:49 pm to Eric Nies Grind Time
quote:
Yeah there is no way to paint this as a good thing for Trump.
LMAO...you are very very very low T.......if you believe this
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:50 pm to John Barron
quote:
She was. Then on Mark Halperin's show she admitted to not releasing a August poll because her "client" would not let her. After that I new she was bought and paid for
When one only releases one side of outliers... then one is a liar.
Shame that she sold her reputation then.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:50 pm to RLDSC FAN
She polled way more democrats…. Her 2020 recalled vote was even
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:52 pm to Mandtgr47
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/2/24 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:53 pm to Eric Nies Grind Time
Right
Dems would’ve been stoked if it was *only* Trump +3-4
It’s a newsworthy result from a quality pollster
Dems would’ve been stoked if it was *only* Trump +3-4
It’s a newsworthy result from a quality pollster
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:54 pm to Eric Nies Grind Time
use some common sense man
no one has even campaigned there.....by all means believe what you want. She just sold her soul to the dems it appears.
no one has even campaigned there.....by all means believe what you want. She just sold her soul to the dems it appears.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 6:54 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Your melts next week are going to be amazing 
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