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Iowa House Race Cong Dist 1 Race Tightens
Posted on 10/13/18 at 4:27 am
Posted on 10/13/18 at 4:27 am
LINK
538 puts this district in the “leans Democrat.”
Latest poll has the incumbent Republican down 1.
Polls six to eight weeks ago had his challenger, Abby Finknauer, up comfortably.
538 puts this district in the “leans Democrat.”
Latest poll has the incumbent Republican down 1.
quote:
That poll found the race is a statistical dead heat, with Finkenauer at 44 percent and Blum at 43 percent with 8 percent of voters undecided. The poll was conducted by the Polling Company, which the Blum campaign has used in previous campaigns, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
quote:
The Congressional Leadership Fund, for example, hasn’t run any ads in the district, according to Kantar Media’s CMAG, which tracks political advertising, and Blum has been the only one running ads supporting his candidacy since Labor Day.
Polls six to eight weeks ago had his challenger, Abby Finknauer, up comfortably.
5
Posted on 10/13/18 at 4:29 am to the808bass
Democrats have done a great job pushing tons of moderates to the right side with their latest antics.
Posted on 10/13/18 at 4:56 am to the808bass
quote:
poll was conducted by the Polling Company, which the Blum campaign has used in previous campaigns
quote:
incumbent Republican
quote:Not good for the incumbent FWIW.
43 percent
This post was edited on 10/13/18 at 4:58 am
Posted on 10/13/18 at 6:06 am to NC_Tigah
quote:no, it's not
Not good for the incumbent FWIW.
At least not in a traditional year under normal conditions
What's different? The trend is encouraging, the Democrat brand is seriously damaged and the enthusiasm gap is closed - or actually favors Republicans
In a normal year, I'd bet the house on the challenger
This year? I just don't know, but I like our chances
Posted on 10/13/18 at 6:15 am to the808bass
He has some ethics issues, so this race probably isn’t a good one to use to attempt to show anything.
Posted on 10/13/18 at 9:05 am to the808bass
In other words, Blum is up +10 with a comfortable lead.
Posted on 10/13/18 at 9:12 am to the808bass
quote:
The Congressional Leadership Fund, for example, hasn’t run any ads in the district, according to Kantar Media’s CMAG, which tracks political advertising, and Blum has been the only one running ads supporting his candidacy since Labor Day.
That's a shame.
Posted on 10/13/18 at 9:23 am to Jjdoc
That can be pretty standard practice for a less prioritized district. The money will come in late depending upon need and opportunity.
Posted on 10/13/18 at 10:57 am to the808bass
quote:
The money will come in late depending upon need and opportunity.
Of course if they're having to put money into a race that they should have won handily, that's less money for races where there was a real battle.
Posted on 10/13/18 at 1:25 pm to Quidam65
This was going to be a tight one. The Dems drafted a pretty strong challenger. And the women have been running pretty hard in NE Iowa with a coordinated ground attack.
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