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If the "Refi" plan is real, and the plan is to force a recession...
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:04 pm
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:04 pm
The "refi plan" in shorthand terms, is a theory that Trump's tariff plan really doesn't have anything to do with tariffs, and the goal is not one of the 3 big ones that are rotated, but to cause a new recession in order to lower rates, so we can refinance about $9T in treasury bonds coming due.
Here are some threads started by MAGA people discussing it in detail.
Trumps actions are by design to lower interest rates so we sell $9 trillion in new bonds
Hidden in the tariff news is the fact that the 10 year yield has dropped below 4%
Is Trump trying to Crash the Economy...
I asked grok how much did the bond market gain last week.
So, assuming this is the plan, and not 1. Bring manufacturing back 2. Fair trade/0 tariffs 3. Replace the income tax with tariffs, a few questions:
When did you first hear about this plan?
Do you support this plan?
How long do you think that we can hold out?
Within what timeframe would you require a recovery?
How much of your stock portfolio can you lose before you start to worry?
Are you scared that the "natural" recession we had coming around the corner will snowball with this "refi" recession?
How do you feel about this plan over 1. Bring manufacturing back 2. Fair trade/0 tariffs 3. Replace the income tax with tariffs?
Would you be willing to oppose Trump supporting federal plans to help people in the recession when we have to approve new spending in September?
Here are some threads started by MAGA people discussing it in detail.
Trumps actions are by design to lower interest rates so we sell $9 trillion in new bonds
Hidden in the tariff news is the fact that the 10 year yield has dropped below 4%
Is Trump trying to Crash the Economy...
I asked grok how much did the bond market gain last week.
So, assuming this is the plan, and not 1. Bring manufacturing back 2. Fair trade/0 tariffs 3. Replace the income tax with tariffs, a few questions:
When did you first hear about this plan?
Do you support this plan?
How long do you think that we can hold out?
Within what timeframe would you require a recovery?
How much of your stock portfolio can you lose before you start to worry?
Are you scared that the "natural" recession we had coming around the corner will snowball with this "refi" recession?
How do you feel about this plan over 1. Bring manufacturing back 2. Fair trade/0 tariffs 3. Replace the income tax with tariffs?
Would you be willing to oppose Trump supporting federal plans to help people in the recession when we have to approve new spending in September?
This post was edited on 4/6/25 at 6:05 pm
24
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:06 pm to SlowFlowPro
I don't think it was the primary plan, but is an added bonus
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:08 pm to stout
Understand as we would head into a recession, there will be zero buyouts this time. There will be blood.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:10 pm to SlowFlowPro
They don’t have to force a ressesion we’ve been on one since Covid by definition. They are just calling it was it is now. The stock market isn’t the economy it can drop 5000 one day and gain 6000 the next. Look at the inflation the worth of the a dollar and prices vs wages and you’ll clearly see we’ve been in a recession for years now.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:10 pm to FireawayLSU
quote:
They don’t have to force a ressesion we’ve been on one since Covid by definition
Clearly they had to make it worse to get to the point where rates are lowered.
quote:
The stock market isn’t the economy it can drop 5000 one day and gain 6000 the next.
The stock market has nothing to do with this discussion.
Read the threads I linked.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:11 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
So, assuming this is the plan
That's a might big assumption.
But I'll play along. Is the bond marker up or down in the past week?
Whichever way you answer, is that a good thing?
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:11 pm to CharlesLSU
quote:
Understand as we would head into a recession, there will be zero buyouts this time. There will be blood.
Good
There should have been zero bailouts in 2008. We would be much better off currently.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:13 pm to SlowFlowPro
Just wait until the Fed reserve has to step in and buy our debt because there won’t be enough buyers at such a low rate, if it happens.
So we print more money to buy more of our debt all while there is little to no economic growth.
We have seen this movie before guys.
So we print more money to buy more of our debt all while there is little to no economic growth.
We have seen this movie before guys.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:14 pm to stout
quote:
There should have been zero bailouts in 2008. We would be much better off currently.
So you’re good with a depression? There’s only one generation that has any experience with a depression, and they are barely alive. This purity test is insane and will lead to massive consequences.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:16 pm to SlowFlowPro
100% the plan. It’s not just Treasuries but the huge Corporate bond rollover. The debt is so big it would require a deliberate and immediate inflation of currency.
What’s sweet is Biden did this on purpose and the forced rotation from equities to Bonds is mainly screwing the coastal elites that have gone after the Trump family.
Pay back is hell.
What’s sweet is Biden did this on purpose and the forced rotation from equities to Bonds is mainly screwing the coastal elites that have gone after the Trump family.
Pay back is hell.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:16 pm to SlowFlowPro
Its this type of simple, single-tracked thinking that betrays each and everyone with tds.
Its multiple things, all at the same time. Exactly how it winds up depends on a whooe host of factors. Some aspects may come out better than others.
Instead of trying to play gotchas, why dont you educate everyone on the “proper” way to finance 9 trillion dollars in 12 months. Whats the “right” play book here?
Its multiple things, all at the same time. Exactly how it winds up depends on a whooe host of factors. Some aspects may come out better than others.
Instead of trying to play gotchas, why dont you educate everyone on the “proper” way to finance 9 trillion dollars in 12 months. Whats the “right” play book here?
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:16 pm to Rebel
quote:
That's a might big assumption.
That's the assumption for this thread, but the steam is picking up that it is the plan for Trump. Again, read the links
I didn't make this up. I was told this by MAGA types.
quote:
Whichever way you answer, is that a good thing?
The combination of how long we have to force this and whether or not this snowballs with the "natural" recession will determine that.
This could easily cause worldwide depression and destruction off the modern economy, so the "bad" side is really bad.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:16 pm to trader_tiger83
quote:
So you’re good with a depression? There’s only one generation that has any experience with a depression, and they are barely alive. This purity test is insane and will lead to massive consequences.
Moral hazard is a bitch. You cannot allow it in a free market
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:17 pm to LSUnation78
quote:
Its this type of simple, single-tracked thinking that betrays each and everyone with tds.
This is not my theory
This theory is being proposed by diehard MAGA types
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:17 pm to trader_tiger83
quote:
So you’re good with a depression?
There would have been a depression if there were no bailouts?
You are a "New Deal" kind of guy, huh?
Next you will tell us we need to go to war for the post-war economic bump.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:19 pm to SlowFlowPro
People on this board don’t understand anything about federal debt financing.
Hell, Trump once said the US should call its bonds and refinance them for super long periods while rates were low - an idea that would have been sound if, you know, treasuries were callable.
Hell, Trump once said the US should call its bonds and refinance them for super long periods while rates were low - an idea that would have been sound if, you know, treasuries were callable.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:19 pm to CharlesLSU
Blood makes the grass grow.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:20 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
How much of your stock portfolio can you lose before you start to worry?
I'm 20 years from retirement and all of my stock portfolio is long term. As long as I don't lose shares, the prices can got to zero. Makes my dividend reinvest go further.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:22 pm to CharlesLSU
quote:
here will be zero buyouts this time
Trump doesnt have the guts to see it through. We saw that with Covid, as he wanted more money spent than the Democrats.
He'll cut stimulus checks the moment he gets a chance.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 6:24 pm to slackster
quote:
Hell, Trump once said the US should call its bonds and refinance them for super long periods while rates were low - an idea that would have been sound if, you know, treasuries were callable.
Stable genius. And he would have succeeded if not for the deep state and the globalists
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