Sooner rather than later.

There are some things happening in the landscape of higher education that are leading to an absolute collapse. I think it could be as soon as 2030. Here are some hard truths that most people don't realize.

1. College isn't a good deal for most students anymore. Unless you are majoring in a STEM field, it makes little sense to spend four years and $100k to get a degree that you will make about the same as working at Target.

2. So much competition for a decreasing pool of students. After 9/11, the birth rate in the US started dropping. It had a small increase and then the 2008 recession hit and it decreased again. The result is now there is not only competition from increased wages, but colleges are competing for less students than they have in the past.

3. The Student Debt Crisis. It went on for years without being talked about, but Dems talking about student debt has shined a light on the crisis. I don't think we'll see across the board student loan forgiveness, but the fact that its being talked about hurts colleges.

4. The rise of micro credentials. IT fields don't care if you have a degree. Do you have Microsoft certification? Javascript, C++ certification? You're hired. And these are the job fields that are growing. What happens if other fields start going this route? Do you think people really care that an accountant took music appreciation? There is a rise of these type programs across the nation. 10-12 months of intense learning on one thing. 100% job placement.

5. Test Optional is Going to Backfire. Many colleges are scraping SAT/ACT requirements in the name of equity. What they are getting are students that are not prepared. Plus, an admission essay is way more hackable than a standardized test. Standardized tests aren't perfect, but they should be a part of a holistic look at a potential student. A 4.0 at an inner city high school is not equal to a 4.0 at an elite private school, no matter how woke you want to be.

Side note on this. Watch this Supreme Court case. If colleges can't discriminate against Asian-American students anymore - this may change.

6. COVID funding saved a bunch of colleges, including most HBCUs from closing. You aren't going to hear this in the media, but there are about 1000 schools that would not be open today if not for the billions in COVID funding.

There are five tiers of schools, I've placed some Louisiana/Mississippi examples when appropriate. .

Tier 1: AAU schools. Ivies, Stanford, Caltech, etc. and top notch public schoolsThese schools will have to make some adjustments, but are in little danger of collapse.

Tier 2: Flagship state schools like LSU, Ole Miss and R1 schools like Mississippi State and Tulane. Will be hurt more than AAU schools, but will recover by taking students from below tiers.

Tier 3: Top Regional Universities like Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss and High Endowment ($300 MM+) like Gonzaga, Samford. These schools will be hurt badly. You will see some of them have to reclassify athletics from Division I. They will survive but take a major hit.

Tier 4: Lower Regionals like Southeastern, McNeese, Delta State, Top HBCUs like Howard, Florida A&M, Grambling, Jackson State. Privates who have invested in online learning like Louisiana College, Belhaven, Mississippi College. Privates with >$100 million endowments like Dillard, Centenary, Millsaps.

Some of these schools will not survive. States will have to consolidate some schools. Privates will have to go to non-scholarship athletics and focus more on adult and online learning. If Tier 2 schools start focusing on adults and online at a higher level, it will wipe out most of this tier.

Tier 5: Low Regionals, Niche Schools, Low HBCUs, Privates with under $100 million endowments. These schools are going to have a really tough time adjusting. Some states will keep these open longer than they should and others will cut bait.