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re: How long do we need to wait and see on the tarrifs?
Posted on 4/21/25 at 11:44 pm to Adam Banks
Posted on 4/21/25 at 11:44 pm to Adam Banks
8 years or so.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 11:58 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
America doesn’t have the patience of China who makes 100 year decisions.
China's long term prospects are bleak. The concern would be that we put them in desperation mode and they start a hot war with someone in the region that could expand.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 11:58 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Has anything you spend daily on increased since the evil tariffs kicked in
Absolutely zero.
Which is my point.
I’m great with riding it out and don’t mind it.
It’s a ballsy move but I respect the play.
With that said my only concern (not a concern troll despite the sound lol) is trump cutting the strategy off too early because of midterms. It’s a long term play. Americans are idiots. Hence the skyscreaming about the market today as evidence of the failure of the strategy.
We won’t know success OR failure for years IMO but the upside of preserving a prosperous future is worth it rather than slowly dying
Posted on 4/22/25 at 7:31 am to Tantal
quote:
Once they lose those markets, China will crumble and go back to the fractured shithole that it's always been.
We really just need to make moves that will cause internal rebellion, and let that take off until it implodes.
Now I will say currently they have done things to help squash a lot if it starts slow, like cameras everywhere and controls over how money is used, etc etc, but they have so many people it can over take it all.
They also I don't think they have an experienced military, and veterans. Their experience is way up in leadership or out of the game. So they may have the training, but the in game experience is where we'd have an advantage, if able to take advantage of it right.
Our biggest concern definitely needs to be with all the secret crap the Democrats have allowed them to do here. Like chips with dormant backdoors in our infrastructure, them posting up secret infrastructure on our borders in disguise of mfg plants in MX/CAN, Cuba base, them owning land next to bases, letting in who knows how many of them in to be training and setting up those plots of lands, etc etc etc.
This post was edited on 4/22/25 at 7:33 am
Posted on 4/22/25 at 7:32 am to Adam Banks
quote:
Absolutely zero.
If only other posters were this honest. The clown show of the money board needs to read this
Posted on 4/22/25 at 7:40 am to Adam Banks
quote:
I think I’m fairly well on the record here about no one including fart sniffing economist have any real idea about how tarrifs will affect us and that there is the possibility of it being a major boon.
I also understand that it is clearly a long term play and ANY day to day variance in the stock market is of little consequence one way or the other in regards to the strategy.
With that said I wonder how long do we have to let this play out?
America doesn’t have the patience of China who makes 100 year decisions.
Does Don have ~ 6-8 months or is he willing to sacrifice the midterms to achieve the overall goal.
Capitulating is always way worse than abandoning your plan before it has had a chance
Posted on 4/22/25 at 8:00 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
President Trump delivers a global address to announce we are ready to drop tariffs, industry subsidies, and barriers to zero on any nation willing to reciprocate. Trump creates the first real free trade deal in US history with an open invitation. The proposal reveals which “free trade” nations scramble to accept Mr. Trump’s challenge and those who retreat behind ad hominem insults, fear, blame and incessant misuse of the words “protect” or “democracy.”
Trump's goal is free and fair trade for all who join us. He wants to open foreign markets to U.S. exports: real free trade (less expensive goods and more trade for everyone). His tariffs leverage the fact that we buy massively more from foreign countries: our $1.2 Trillion annual trade deficit. Almost all large modern economies remain export driven and need the US consumer market.
quote:
In 2018, at the Group of Seven meeting in Quebec, Mr. Trump made an historic offer for the U.S. to drop all tariffs if other nations would do the same: “No tariffs, no barriers. That’s the way it should be. And no subsidies. . . Ultimately, that’s what you want.”
European and Asian politician faces went pasty at the offer. President Trump exposed trade policy hypocrisy in Brussels, Beijing and the whole G7. Global annual tariffs cost about $500 billion (zero historical correlation between tariff level and inflation). The most expensive and glaring barriers to global trade today remain unfair health barriers and technical barriers, which include import licensing/administrative procedures, state aid/subsidies, and rules of origin/local content requirements. These barriers impose costs exceeding $1.4 trillion globally (WTO) and restrict U.S. exports. The US trade deficit reached a record of 1.2 trillion in 2024.
quote:
We need a national conversation on the best steps to streamline and improve our domestic manufacturing pipeline.
1. Designate at least 20 U.S. "manufacturing universities" where US companies can outsource R&D spending. Those universities could develop nationwide manufacturing skills standards.
2. Privatize and expand the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP). In 2024, the MEP generated $15 billion in new/retained sales, $5 billion in new investments, $2.6 billion in cost savings, and supported 108,000 jobs, with a return of $24.60 in new sales per $1 of federal investment
3. Make R&D 100% tax creditable and permanent. Permanently make the corporate tax rate 15%. Make the income tax 15%, only paid by those with income over $200,000.
4. 100% investment tax credits on the purchases of new capital equipment and software.
5. The two most expensive costs for US manufacturing are healthcare and energy, whose subsidies come with a daunting regulatory price tag: we have the highest priced health care system on the planet, and we have failed to develop energy, export energy or significantly lower domestic prices.
6. Expand high-skill and/or well capitalized immigration. Trump’s $5,000,000 instant citizenship Gold Card idea is genius: Hong Kong on the Hudson, or in Hawaii, or on the coast of the Gulf of America, or…
7. Transform Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae into industrial banks (shift their focus to supporting manufacturing). Buy loans for manufacturing firms and selling them on the secondary market, like their current mortgage support. This would help manufacturers, especially small businesses, raise funding for growth and innovation.
8. Incorporate a "competitiveness screen"/cost impact analysis review of federal regulations and launch a massive regulatory review. Deregulate. Regulation is a far more expensive tax than tariffs (10/1 - WTO).
9. US trade policy focuses on technology, tax, trade, talent, increased access to capital, reform/delete regulations, and better assessment of U.S. trade sector competitiveness. We streamline the permitting process from top to bottom - cut timelines, eliminate duplicative reviews and ensure projects get approved on merit. Unleash American energy, rebuild our industrial base and secure true energy independence, by transcending inefficient federal choke points - environmental impact reports, hiring and zoning stipulations, non-competitive contractor bids.
10. We freeze our federal budget, including entitlements. DC politicians will never pass that? Fine. Hysteria is their new norm. Let us have the discussion. We could freeze everything and privatize entitlements/safety net. We could open retirement accounts instead of shoveling Social Security taxes into a centralized abyss, devaluing the dollar, and driving up inflation (the most regressive tax).
Posted on 4/22/25 at 8:02 am to Adam Banks
Give it a break Chicken Little. The sky is not falling, you will survive.
Posted on 4/22/25 at 8:05 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
Next to profit, business craves nothing more than stability.
This, all day long. This reality is the reason that how Trump does things can be just as important as what he's doing.
Posted on 4/22/25 at 10:05 am to Adam Banks
Probably more than 2-3 weeks.
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