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Message
re: H1N1 vs. Coronavirus - Why are they not comparable?
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:59 am to Powerman
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:59 am to Powerman
quote:
Powerman
Do you think, that maybe, one difference in the response has to do with the prevalence of social media today, as compared to 2009?
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 9:00 am
1
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:59 am to Yak
quote:
If you really want to compare the 2, then extrapolate what the coronavirus deaths would be if it reached H1N1 infected levels.
one thing I've realized from this ordeal is just how bad the general public is at ratios and cross multiplication
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:00 am to BugAC
quote:
Do you think, that maybe, one difference in the response has to do with the prevalence of social media today, as compared to 2009?
No. Absolutely not. That's absurd.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:01 am to Tiguar
quote:
one thing I've realized from this ordeal is just how bad the general public is at ratios and cross multiplication
And how obsessed people are with defending a political agenda
It has literally become a religion where it is a necessity to suspend reality
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:01 am to Yak
quote:
Or, let's compare what the OP is asking, H1N1 vs. Coronavirus.
They are not comparable per the numbers.
No pandemics are moron. That's the point. You can throw any 2 pandemics out there and any poster with a 7th grade education can tear the comparison apart in 5 minutes by simply comparing the numbers.
They are ALL different.
The only reason these two are being compared is to measure the effectiveness of government response, unless we suddenly have a bunch of virologists in the media.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:02 am to Powerman
quote:
Tests only confirm positive or negative. They don't help alleviate any of the health issues.
Correct. And most that test positive do not require medical treatment or hospitialization, thus the # of positives to death ratio decreases.
quote:
In problem areas like New Orleans and New York they are absolutely about to get overwhelmed with people that do in fact need treatment.
What does that mean? Are you basing this off of what you think will happen or of what you KNOW will happen with 100% certainty?
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:03 am to Powerman
quote:
No. Absolutely not. That's absurd.
So you don't think social media has anything to do with the response to this? You don't think interconnectivity of the entire world that has increased exponentially since 2009, factors at all in the global/local response?
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:03 am to BugAC
quote:
I would just like a straight answer as to why the fear mongering is so high with CV,
The easiest answer is normally the correct answer.
It's about fear mongering and destroying Donald Trump, our economy, our healthcare system, jobs, Trump momentum.
The only difference between H1N1 and CV is the person in the White House.
Now ask yourself why they want to destroy him. Is it because he has vowed to drain the swamp? Now you know who resides in the swamp.
There is no other explanation. The facts don't match the response. If they didn't freak out before over those numbers what has changed?
The answer is right in front of you.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:03 am to Vacherie Saint
quote:So after 4 pages, we finally agree that they're not comparable.
No pandemics are moron. That's the point. You can throw any 2 pandemics out there and any poster with a 7th grade education can tear the comparison apart in 5 minutes by simply comparing the numbers.
They are ALL different.
The only reason these two are being compared is to measure the effectiveness of government response, unless we suddenly have a bunch of virologists in the media.
I've had worse dates, I suppose
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:03 am to BugAC
quote:
Correct. And most that test positive do not require medical treatment or hospitialization, thus the # of positives to death ratio decreases.
In that case you may have a point. Unfortunately irrespective of the total confirmed cases the death toll will go up.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:06 am to BugAC
quote:
So you don't think social media has anything to do with the response to this?
No. Not at all. Me posting some article about the topic on facebook has no bearing on the responses of governments that are decided on the basis of scientific counsel.
The response to this is scientific. Nothing more. You think every country in the world would be shitting all over their economy because of what some random people are saying on twitter and facebook?
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:15 am to Yak
quote:
So after 4 pages, we finally agree that they're not comparable.
You didn't need 4 pages for that, Corky Sherwood. Its been my contention the entire thread.
On pure numbers, no pandemics ever are. Which is why it isn't useful. On response, the comparison is very useful, and its the ONLY reason the media is examining the two. A good response, in theory, could take two identical pandemics and yield radically different numbers. You can do this today by analyzing COVID19 in different countries (IF you can somehow get parallel data that's not completely made up).
Dig deeper friend. If I wanted shitty one-liners, I'd spend the day with my father-in-law.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:18 am to Powerman
quote:
The response to this is scientific. Nothing more.
The market response preceded much of the heavy government action. Media driven social pressure has as much to do with government action as scientific counsel.
Media has culpability here.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:19 am to Powerman
quote:link?
We're not even close to peaking yet
again, chicken little people seem to think we're early in this outbreak when we're not. i've explained how multiple times.
quote:
we're already over 1K deaths
"already." after at least 2 months quote:
extreme measures we've been taking
people are still out doing stuff.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:22 am to Yak
quote:CDC estimates are 60.8 million cases (43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) in the United States during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak.
If you really want to compare the 2, then extrapolate what the coronavirus deaths would be if it reached H1N1 infected levels.
Current guestimates for CV19 are ~10% hospitalizations and a 0.7% CFR. Assuming no control efforts (which was basically the case in 2009) and 60.8M CV19 infections, we'd have 6,080,000 hospitalizations and 425,000 deaths. Bad news.
However with extensive CV19 and CV19ab testing, mitigation awareness, geriatric and "at-risk" isolation, and some therapeutic success, the numbers would look nothing like that. In fact, they'd likely approximate or be less than the '09 epidemic even within a functioning and open economy.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:22 am to bfniii
quote:
people are still out doing stuff.
In most places people aren't congregating in big groups unless they're idiots
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:22 am to Powerman
quote:
In that case you may have a point. Unfortunately irrespective of the total confirmed cases the death toll will go up.
Agreed. And i guess that leads to, if the death toll rises (not necessarily the rate) does that necessitate continued shut down of our economy?
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:25 am to Powerman
quote:
Me posting some article about the topic on facebook has no bearing on the responses of governments that are decided on the basis of scientific counsel.
Social media is more than just facebook/twitter/instagram. Maybe i should rephrase it from social media to the pervasiveness of all media nowadays.
quote:
The response to this is scientific. Nothing more.
The response is not just scientific. Politics plays a big part. Look at the House bill that included congressional pay raises, early voting, and funding to the Kennedy center...
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:25 am to BugAC
quote:
And i guess that leads to, if the death toll rises (not necessarily the rate) does that necessitate continued shut down of our economy?
I think it will go more on the rate. If you see the number of deaths flatten then I think more considerations about opening up the economy will be taken seriously.
If the trend below continues I don't think you'll see things open up until there is a clear downward trend.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:26 am to NC_Tigah
Yeah, but he never has to accept your comparisons because there will always be some unique wrinkle in the numbers that make them different.
And if the numbers are different, we can't compare the Obama response to the Trump response. See how that works?
And if the numbers are different, we can't compare the Obama response to the Trump response. See how that works?
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