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re: Great prognosticator- Nate Silver &538- 75% Dems take House
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:12 pm to Y.A. Tittle
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:12 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:You sure get confused easy from thread to thread. What don't you understand? He presents stats and predictions in a way that the lay person can actually understand them and that they are interesting. And he has an excellent track record in making political predictions. His book - The Signal and the Noise - goes to great pains to talk about how difficult predictions are in general.
How is this guy still getting paid to do this?
He literally said on the eve of the election that Trump had about a 1/3 chance of winning. And then Trump won. Do you not understand that 2:1 events like that happen all the time in your real life? Do you even understand the very concept of probability?
2
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:14 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:Unfortunately, most people can't grasp this basic concept. This doesn't even require knowledge of mathematics...just common sense. Alas.
He literally said on the eve of the election that Trump had about a 1/3 chance of winning. And then Trump won. Do you not understand that 2:1 events like that happen all the time in your real life? Do you even understand the very concept of probability?
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:17 pm to Covingtontiger77
Nate is still using flawed polling. Interesting.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:25 pm to GumboPot
Flawed because it doesnt support ur party?
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:30 pm to Tigerdev
quote:
Unfortunately, most people can't grasp this basic concept. This doesn't even require knowledge of mathematics...just common sense. Alas.
So, if Silver was correct, if they held the election 9 more times are you saying Hillary would win approximately 6-7 of those times?
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:30 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Big Scrub TX
Hey, you're right here, I didn't realize he was that close immediately prior to the election.
It seems an odd methodology (and I'm not sure how really useful), though, in that he had Hillary higher than 80% just a few months before that.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:31 pm to PresidentJerry
$ 20 fine for the President Jerry. I have another $980.00 available to wager, if anyone is interested, for the Dumbs take the House. Let me know if interested. 
This post was edited on 8/16/18 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:31 pm to HubbaBubba
LOL
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:32 pm to Brosef Stalin
The people in the background of that picture look defeated.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:33 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
It seems an odd methodology (and I'm not sure how really useful), though, in that he had Hillary higher than 80% just a few months before that.
The probabilities move around based on actual events. It's an iterative, dynamic model he has. He wasn't predicting from a personal ideology and then just sticking with it. Certainly you agree that all the FBI/Comey/email stuff had vast relevance in the final weeks/months of the campaigns...no?
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:34 pm to Robin Masters
quote:Yes.
So, if Silver was correct, if they held the election 9 more times are you saying Hillary would win approximately 6-7 of those times?
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:35 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Certainly you agree that all the FBI/Comey/email stuff had vast relevance in the final weeks/months of the campaigns...no?
Of course.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:36 pm to PresidentJerry
quote:
Flawed because it doesnt support ur party?
Flawed because they poll likely voters. Many Trump voters are not likely voters. If they come out for the midterms the polls will be off again.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:36 pm to Y.A. Tittle
Well, there you go. I was way more likely she would win prior to the final email thing with Comey.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:44 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
So, if Silver was correct, if they held the election 9 more times are you saying Hillary would win approximately 6-7 of those times? Yes.
bullshite.
What would have changed? Do you really think that many people change their vote or decide to vote/not to vote?
This isn’t a football game where variables can change throughout the game. Trump had a 100% chance of winning and if the election were held 10 times he would win all 10. The 64% chance was how likely the poll will be in choosing the correct winner.
Perhaps this is splitting hairs but I think it makes a difference.
Also, what the frick are you doing promoting the accuracy of polls. I thought you were saying the outcomes of these elections were decided well in advance and Trump was always going to win? Wouldn’t then the polls be meaningless?
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:45 pm to Robin Masters
quote:
So, if Silver was correct, if they held the election 9 more times are you saying Hillary would win approximately 6-7 of those times? Yes.
I don't think that's what it means.
The results are the results.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:47 pm to Robin Masters
quote:Weather, for one. It can easily have an impact on certain counties/regions when the margin is already very thin.
What would have changed?
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:52 pm to UGATiger26
quote:
If I'm a Republican candidate, I'm telling my campaign communications folks to create a montage of the craziest hate-filled rants that Democrats have uttered over the past couple of years. Emphasize the ones where they insult, degrade, and slander Trump voters and supporters.
They can't debate issues. They have to immediately descend to name-calling and spewing hate, in general.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:56 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Weather, for one. It can easily have an impact on certain counties/regions when the margin is already very thin.
Myth.
LINK wapo
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:56 pm to VoxDawg
Democrats are going to take the House on November 6. Repubs are reeling in up to 55 Congressional districts as of August polling. I think the Dems will net 30 seats from those 55.
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