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Started By
Message
“he was right 100% right, except for he ones he got wrong”. 
0
Posted on 8/17/18 at 8:39 am to Tigerdev
quote:Nope.
That's the point. He isn't going around creating data points. He is taking the data points available, applying an algorithm and then synthesizing the output into a data model. Hillary and Trump were polling within the margin of error. This was a possible outcome.
quote:Nah. No one in PMO would use such a stupid convoluted and inaccurate method of cost estimating a project.
It's the same reason you can't accurately estimate cost on a project down to the dollar.
quote:
With all of these projections you build an algorithm based on reasonable assumptions and scientific estimation techniques (typically relying on a combination of analogous situations and parametrics).
only if you want the same garbage out as you put in. Good modelers don’t let that happen. Posted on 8/17/18 at 8:43 am to PresidentJerry
quote:This the equivalent of saying... “the chance of rain is always 50%. It will either rain or it won’t. He picked 60% so he was pretty close to the 50%!”
Right, he didnt say it was a 100% chance HRC would win, I think it was like 62-64% around election day so pretty much 1/3 chance Trump would win.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 8:47 am to PresidentJerry
quote:Unless you deescalate premature assumptions regarding individual's opinions here, and stick to facts, you're going to get your arse handed to you.
if you think he sucks that bad.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 8:47 am to BugAC
quote:
Can someone explain to me why the left think they are going to retake the house? What has the left done to garner any support? Realistically, economy is great, jobs are up. The dems aren't running on anything other than "no trump". Via the 2016 election, that didn't turn out too well. So what are they running on that makes them think they will flip the house?
--Trump is an historically unpopular president. Midterms are typically a referendum of the President.
--Voters want health care solved. GOP has done nothing on this front other than dismantle a popular program.
-- Economy is humming but wages are static or dropping for the average Joe. Tax cuts were passed with a promise to look out for the middle class. That didn't happen and voters realize it.
-- Tariffs are hurting American workers.
-- According to polling, it's low on the list, but this whole Russia thing hanging over the President is not helping him.
-- Broken campaign promises.
-- Mouth running on Twitter
-- Inaction by Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell when it comes to checking Trump's efforts to expand executive reach.
-- HEALTHCARE. Repeating this one because it's polling as the number 1 issue heading into this midterm. This will be compounded when enrollment prices come out just prior to the election and show a precipitous increase. Who are voters going to blame?
Posted on 8/17/18 at 8:51 am to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
--Voters want health care solved. GOP has done nothing on this front other than dismantle a popular program.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 8:52 am to THRILLHO
Posted on 8/17/18 at 9:02 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
what i understand is that you are clearly completely innumerate, yet confidently opining on probability
Probability is not how the poll is marketed. I'm going with how it is presented.
If you want to argue the old "lies, damn lies, and statistics" routine then be my guest
Posted on 8/17/18 at 9:27 am to gthog61
Some ppl want this info now tho. Of course these percentages will change by then. They're ever-moving.
You can look at his numbers on a daily basis now until the election. Why do u hate numbers so much?
You can look at his numbers on a daily basis now until the election. Why do u hate numbers so much?
This post was edited on 8/17/18 at 9:30 am
Posted on 8/17/18 at 9:28 am to Taxing Authority
Please name me a good modeler...or one that has been more successful than Nate Silver.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 9:29 am to NC_Tigah
NC Tigah scared to death, that is the easiest thing to see on this Friday morning.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 9:33 am to PresidentJerry
Posted on 8/17/18 at 9:38 am to PresidentJerry
quote:
PresidentJerry
quote:
NC Tigah scared to death, that is the easiest thing to see on this Friday morning.
Oh Lord another mentally ill prog that will contribute nothing here.
Dude literally said on page two he expect this to happen. Moron.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 9:47 am to PresidentJerry
quote:
Please name me a good modeler...or one that has been more successful than Nate Silver.
He's probably the best. No argument here. But his data isn't presented for what it is. It's marketed as being more.....authoritative, maybe?
Posted on 8/17/18 at 9:51 am to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
--Trump is an historically unpopular president.
Historically?
Posted on 8/17/18 at 10:27 am to Y.A. Tittle
quote:Well, historically in terms of the last few . . . . weeks.
Historically?
Posted on 8/17/18 at 1:03 pm to Covingtontiger77
Nate uses a "snapshot in time" approach. IE, if the election was held today, what he would predict the outcome to be based off his model.
Looking at his input data, he is bsing todays "snapshot" off of a +7.9 dem favor ability index. Based on the polls below:
538 dem vs reb generic poll
all but ne of these polls are registered voters. when we get closer to election date, RV becomes LV (likely voters) and poll sample sizes are larger, yielding smaller MOE. once those start to come out we will get a better feel of where the election might fall.
Looking at his input data, he is bsing todays "snapshot" off of a +7.9 dem favor ability index. Based on the polls below:
538 dem vs reb generic poll
all but ne of these polls are registered voters. when we get closer to election date, RV becomes LV (likely voters) and poll sample sizes are larger, yielding smaller MOE. once those start to come out we will get a better feel of where the election might fall.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 1:06 pm to Jyrdis
quote:
The people in the background of that picture look defeated.
I mean... technically, they literally were
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