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Started By
Message
re: Great prognosticator- Nate Silver &538- 75% Dems take House
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:56 pm to PresidentJerry
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:56 pm to PresidentJerry
quote:
p.s. The chances our model gives Democrats—between 70 and 75 percent depending on what version you look at—are pretty much exactly the odds that Hillary Clinton had of winning in 2016! So hopefully everyone's learned their lesson and won't mistake that for a sure thing. ??????
I understand exactly what he’s saying...that republicans need to vote.
0
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:56 pm to Covingtontiger77
But he’s jewish, so he’s so much smarter than is gentiles.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:57 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
Nate Silver &538- 75% Dems take House
That is for the last big election. Just a warm-up for the next one. I'm getting in practice.Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:58 pm to Covingtontiger77
Also, I will bet anyone that the Dems will take back the House. Not sayin its gonna happen but Bovada, PredictIt, and Smarkets all show the odds with the Dems. I'll try Vegas' take and u can take Trump.
Any takers?
Any takers?
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:58 pm to Covingtontiger77
Lol what a fruit. 75% is WAY too low. Nate Bronze is a cuck!
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:59 pm to PresidentJerry
quote:
Any takers?
tony tiger seems interested
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:59 pm to BBONDS25
If I recall his algorithm was based on the raw data from polls (weighted by their historical reliability from previous elections) with variables added to account for other historical and/or parametric factors such as considering that the Dems had already been in office eight years. It's all on his website if you actually care. But we both know you are just being a smarmy prick... 
This post was edited on 8/16/18 at 2:00 pm
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:59 pm to Tigerdev
Right, he didnt say it was a 100% chance HRC would win, I think it was like 62-64% around election day so pretty much 1/3 chance Trump would win.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:00 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
Legit statisticians and data scientists think Silver is a hack.
yep
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:01 pm to 90proofprofessional
I am very interested !!
How much would Presdent Jerry Louis, like to wager ???
How much would Presdent Jerry Louis, like to wager ???
This post was edited on 8/16/18 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:01 pm to Tiger985
The history that supports this was largely written before Democrats outed themselves as the party of sodomy, sharia, snd socialism. That history also predicted a second President Clinton.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:01 pm to Tigerdev
He got like 99 out of 100 states right in the two previous elections before '16. He's pretty good at what he does.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:02 pm to Northwestern tiger
quote:
I’m not a liberal but I think the 75% chance dem take back house is very reasonable.
75 may be kinda high but history has shown the opposing party always picks up seats in these elections. Its not ridiculous to predict the Dems will based off history alone
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:02 pm to Covingtontiger77
How is this guy still getting paid to do this? 
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:03 pm to PresidentJerry
quote:
he didnt say it was a 100% chance HRC would win, I think it was like 62-64% around election day so pretty much 1/3 chance Trump would win.
But only 50% of the time.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:03 pm to Boatshoes
EXACTLY Boat shoes !!
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:04 pm to PresidentJerry
quote:
Any takers?
Sure
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:05 pm to PresidentJerry
quote:Correct. If I didn't have an interest in stats and data I wouldn't even bother trying to explain this to people who can't even bother to read the articles they are linking and commenting on.
Right, he didnt say it was a 100% chance HRC would win, I think it was like 62-64% around election day so pretty much 1/3 chance Trump would win.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:07 pm to Tony Tiger89
$20?
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:09 pm to LuckyTiger
Kinda like how win totals are half points. LSU's win total is 7.5. I've got some buddies who cant wrap their head around it.
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