re: Florida books are officially closed until Election Day--Result incredible news for GOP

no way Trump has a state as large as Florida in the bag already while being down 15% overall

Miami Herald

“I don’t think you’ll meet any Democrat out there who’ll say this registration number is a good thing,” said Scott Kosanovich, a Democratic strategist who led Bloomberg’s short-lived presidential campaign in Florida.

But Kosanovich said there are positive signs that Democrats won’t look back in regret after the election when it comes to voter turnout. This year, voters on the left are voting early at an unprecedented rate, even if the registration numbers show they don’t outnumber Republicans to the extent they did in the past.

Kevin Cate, a Florida Democratic operative and veteran media consultant, said in an interview Thursday that “before 2020, Democrats had to look at the voter registration gap as our holy grail.” Now, he said, Democrats have a massive early vote advantage and still have more registered voters than Republicans.

“The reality is Democrats have amassed an overwhelming vote by mail advantage, and turned out in historic numbers for the primary election in August,” said Jackie McGuinness, a spokeswoman for Biden’s campaign in Florida. “Democrats are leading in the metrics that will determine this election and returning their ballots at a higher rate than Republicans — and we aren’t letting up.”

Republicans, though, say they believe Democrats are largely just transitioning in-person voters to ones that vote by mail, and aren’t increasing Biden’s base in any material way.

“That’s historically close,” he said of the 134,000-voter gap. “It’s never been that close in the history of the state.”

quote:

---

Trump win Florida probably before the Central time zone counts come in.

---

If it doesn't take long for the decision to come in....Trump will win BIGLY.

can't wait for the REEEEEEEEing

quote:

---

I just read Steve Shale's Twitter thread (he's a FL elections expert and a total party hack for the Dems) and he's spinning pretty strongly and in a way that makes me think these numbers are legit and that they're fantastic for Trump.

I'd recommend people investing in FL for Trump on PredictIt or betting sites. I loved him to win FL anyway, but this is actual hard data that confirms underperformance with young voters and a great start to the counting for Trumpy Bear.
This post was edited on 10/15 at 4:51 pm

---

I'm fairly new to actually betting on Predictit, but I find that a majority of the commenters on each betting market are overwhelmingly liberal. Granted, they could be pumpers and may be masking their true opinions but I get the sense there's a liberal tilt there. My expectation is holding my Dem NO Florida shares until the state is called for TRUMP.

what keeps a democrat from registering as a republican and then voting democrat?

quote:

---

This question won’t be answered until Election Day.

---

True but when your own Democratic consultants speak on the record that Biden has a problem in Florida then it probably says something about his ability to beat Trump in Florida. Still you are correct it will all turn to election day turnout now.

Jacksonville

I've never been a registered Republican, so that "independent" thing means nothing to me.