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Started By
Message
re: Dr. Fauci in New England Journal of Medicine Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:10 am to Powerman
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:10 am to Powerman
Why not? “If it saves just one life...”
Meanwhile, 3 million new unemployment claims were filed yesterday. I wonder if CNN will keep a running graphic of the number of people who die of hunger over this.
Meanwhile, 3 million new unemployment claims were filed yesterday. I wonder if CNN will keep a running graphic of the number of people who die of hunger over this.
1
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:11 am to NATidefan
quote:
Well all depends on what level of bad flu we are talking about.
The spanish flu was a Very Bad Flu.
Correct
But there really isn't anything in the early numbers to suggest that this is anywhere near that bad
At least not in the United States
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:12 am to msutiger
quote:
but some opinions should be more valued than others.
Agreed but valued opinions are still not the gospel.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:12 am to Robin Masters
quote:
Dr. Fauci in New England Journal of Medicine Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May Be Much Closer to a Very Bad Flu
translation = will be close to the same a the flu every year.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:12 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
Like I've said before, I really don't like "experts" and their "opinions".
That's why you stick to total # of cases, R0, and CFR.
Everything else is an opinion.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:13 am to NaturalBeam
quote:
Meanwhile, 3 million new unemployment claims were filed yesterday. I wonder if CNN will keep a running graphic of the number of people who die of hunger over this.
I don't think they have to do this. They've already positioned their message. If the economy recovers (mostly, I doubt we can get back to where we were just in February), then Trump will have sacrificed lives for his re-election.
If it doesn't, it's Trump's fault.
They don't have to do the boring bodycount on this one (although they will continue to do that perversely/obscenely for the virus).
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:15 am to Robin Masters
The influenza pandemic of 1957 or 1968 might be a good comparison where 1M people died worldwide.
There’s never a need to overstate the case. The NEJM article makes the comparison between SARS and MERS to Covid-19 and says it’s closer to a pandemic flu than SARS and MERS.
There’s never a need to overstate the case. The NEJM article makes the comparison between SARS and MERS to Covid-19 and says it’s closer to a pandemic flu than SARS and MERS.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:16 am to Powerman
quote:
They need to figure out what the real transmission rate is on this thing
I know no one believes internet message guy ShortyRob which is totally fair.
But ShortyRob WILL be shown to be correct that we massively undercounted infections from the outset. And. Shorty was saying this almost two weeks ago.
I'll just have to be content with my own personal told you so
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:17 am to ShortyRob
quote:
But ShortyRob WILL be shown to be correct that we massively undercounted infections from the outset.
I'd say that's more than a reasonable assumption based on the number of tests
I think we're going to find out that the number of infected might be 10 fold what is actually being confirmed at the moment
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:19 am to Powerman
quote:
Yeah that's not really something to throw a party over
or tank an economy over such that trillions of dollars must be thrown at it
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:19 am to Powerman
I may be reading it wrong, but from the link they estimate 2X the regular flu @ .28%. I’ll admit, that’s ummm, very ambitious let’s say, but, even if we can get around .5%, which I believe South Korea & Germany are at, that’s a huge win.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:20 am to Powerman
quote:
The precedent has been set. We’ll now have to shut the country down every winter during flu season, right?
quote:
Of course not
Based off what? This episode has shown the willingness for politicians to out virtue signal each other to extremes not seen before, a map is being drawn up for the future. Don't fool yourself.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:25 am to Powerman
quote:
I'd say that's more than a reasonable assumption based on the number of tests
The antibody testing is going to be an eyeopener.
Of course, we didn't know what we didn't know. We suspected (I certainly did) a broader spread (with many, many asymptomatic or mild cases). Which should make the disease less terrifying.
The danger of overwhelming the various states (which may be on the verge of happening) because of the ventilator demand was still something that had to be addressed, but in hindsight it will look like we may have overreacted.
But, the executives (President, Governors, Mayors) and public health officials were flying blind. Because China lied.
China lied and the World suffered/is suffering because of those lies.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:26 am to ShortyRob
quote:
But ShortyRob WILL be shown to be correct that we massively undercounted infections from the outset.
There's no doubt about that but some people need to quit acting like the infection rate equals death. That's where this virus is being overblown.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:27 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
The antibody testing is going to be an eyeopener.
Absolutely. I think when that comes out you're going to see things get back to normal fairly quickly.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:27 am to OTIS2
quote:
OTIS2
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:27 am to Robin Masters
So we agree with Fauci now?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:27 am to NATidefan
quote:
Well all depends on what level of bad flu we are talking about.
A "very bad flu" with a TFR of 0.28%.
quote:
The spanish flu was a Very Bad Flu.
The Spanish Flu had a TFR of up to 20%.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:32 am to ShortyRob
quote:
But ShortyRob WILL be shown to be correct that we massively undercounted infections from the outset. And. Shorty was saying this almost two weeks ago.
Yes. That was an easy call. It was in everything being said about the disease from the start. The question is are the infections undercounted by 80% or 40%?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:33 am to RollTide1987
quote:
A "very bad flu" with a TFR of 0.28%.
I would be highly surprised if we end up at .28%. I would also celebrate. I’m guessing it’s closer to 1% than .1%.
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