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Does This War Ultimately Bring China Closer to the Middle East?
Posted on 3/4/26 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 3/4/26 at 1:42 pm
I think this unprecedented (or unprovoked, depending on how you interpret international law) U.S./Israel attack on Iran will pull U.S. resources into a costly Middle East quagmire, diverting focus and military assets from the Indo-Pacific competition with China.
This in-turn opens a strategic vacuum where China steps in with economic ties (discounted Iranian oil, Belt and Road expansion), diplomatic mediation, and positioning as a reliable non-interventionist power—eroding U.S. dominance and boosting Beijing’s regional leverage over 5–10 years.
While Israel may gain temporary relief from their nuclear program, I think it can only expect more sustained Iranian/ proxy retaliation, heavy casualties, economic strain, growing isolation, and long-term vulnerability as U.S. support fatigues in a China-leaning Middle East over the next 10 years.
Of course it’s hard to see that far ahead but I see no benefits to our current plan (if there was one).
This in-turn opens a strategic vacuum where China steps in with economic ties (discounted Iranian oil, Belt and Road expansion), diplomatic mediation, and positioning as a reliable non-interventionist power—eroding U.S. dominance and boosting Beijing’s regional leverage over 5–10 years.
While Israel may gain temporary relief from their nuclear program, I think it can only expect more sustained Iranian/ proxy retaliation, heavy casualties, economic strain, growing isolation, and long-term vulnerability as U.S. support fatigues in a China-leaning Middle East over the next 10 years.
Of course it’s hard to see that far ahead but I see no benefits to our current plan (if there was one).
12
Posted on 3/4/26 at 1:43 pm to RFK
What war are you referring to?
Posted on 3/4/26 at 1:43 pm to RFK
China is pretty close to the ME states already. But it all depends on the outcome of course.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 1:45 pm to RFK
It’s already brought them closer to Russia. I don’t see the ME being much of an opportunity for them. Most nations are allied with us already. China is boxed in. That’s pretty damn good considering Trump “didn’t have a plan” according to the Left.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 1:51 pm to RFK
quote:
This in-turn opens a strategic vacuum where China steps in with economic ties (discounted Iranian oil,
Ask China how they feel about the discounted oil from Venezuela.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 1:52 pm to RFK
How's you campaign going alt?
Posted on 3/4/26 at 1:52 pm to La Place Mike
Posted on 3/4/26 at 1:53 pm to RFK
I think china and Russia are watching this closely. If Iran falls, and the US overthrows Iran government, they will see they are next. They will ultimately have to enter the war.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 1:57 pm to RFK
quote:No
Does This War Ultimately Bring China Closer to the Middle East?
From the Middle-Eastern perspective;
1) we already have treaties with Saudi Arabia and some other countries. This won't break those.
2) Iran has been a pain in the arse to other countries over there, this removes that pain in the arse.
3) from a purely strategic point of view, China and the US are two opposing economic superpowers. The US has stepped in several times to slap a country, demolished Iraq, Libya, Syria, and is now demolishing Iran.
China has been in position to oppose this, and actually had diplomatic ties to Iran. And hasn't done a single thing to defend it's "ally", or otherwise threaten to engage or stop the US.
In what world does that cause a country to pick China over the US?
Posted on 3/4/26 at 2:03 pm to RFK
TDS is a real disease
USA USA
USA USA
Posted on 3/4/26 at 2:05 pm to RFK
Unprovoked huh
Posted on 3/4/26 at 2:11 pm to BurlesonCountyAg
quote:
What war are you referring to?
Imma guess the one this board has a 200 page thread talking about.
I’m just spitballing here.
This post was edited on 3/4/26 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 3/4/26 at 2:19 pm to RFK
quote:
international law)
quote:
This in-turn opens a strategic vacuum where China steps in with economic ties (discounted Iranian oil, Belt and Road expansion), diplomatic mediation, and positioning as a reliable non-interventionist power—eroding U.S. dominance and boosting Beijing’s regional leverage over 5–10 years.
Iran is already one of the top three countries where China gets their oil. So is Venezuela. This is crippling their access, not expanding it. How do you always get it wrong?
Posted on 3/4/26 at 2:21 pm to RFK
In my lifetime, I have never seen the Middle East as closer to the USA as it is right now. I understand the Shia v. Sunni divide but the fact that you have the Saudis and other Gulf states essentially supporting this mission speaks volumes.
But that is obviously right now. The likelihood that once the bombing starts that an Iranian government forms that has true control over the nation seems like a pipe dream. There are going to be factions competing for power and the likelihood of some sort of civil war breaking out seems far less than remote, if not downright probable.
And if that happens then it is highly probable that Russia and China fight a proxy war with us.
The U.S., of course, will bear that burden. Not our allies and certainly not China or Russia. Billions and billions of U.S. tax dollars will be spent, and a lot of people will get nice homes in the DC suburbs and elsewhere.
But that is obviously right now. The likelihood that once the bombing starts that an Iranian government forms that has true control over the nation seems like a pipe dream. There are going to be factions competing for power and the likelihood of some sort of civil war breaking out seems far less than remote, if not downright probable.
And if that happens then it is highly probable that Russia and China fight a proxy war with us.
The U.S., of course, will bear that burden. Not our allies and certainly not China or Russia. Billions and billions of U.S. tax dollars will be spent, and a lot of people will get nice homes in the DC suburbs and elsewhere.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 2:30 pm to RFK
How could that possibly be the result? Iran is a Chinese ally.
China’s oil supply is being greatly constrained by the war.
China’s other main partners in the region , Pakistan and Afghanistan, are currently at war with one another.
I don’t see how any of this helps China. Sure, the West is distracted, so they could theoretically move on Taiwan, but they lack the fuel to do it with the Strait of Hormuz essentially closed.
China’s oil supply is being greatly constrained by the war.
China’s other main partners in the region , Pakistan and Afghanistan, are currently at war with one another.
I don’t see how any of this helps China. Sure, the West is distracted, so they could theoretically move on Taiwan, but they lack the fuel to do it with the Strait of Hormuz essentially closed.
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