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re: Does the left really believe we can power the entire country on solar and wind?

Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:17 pm to
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
12614 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:17 pm to
Solar cells last longer than 25 years. They do degrade but don’t go to zero and the degradation is percentile based (about .5% annually) therefore the total wattage loss decreases with age. And battery tech lasts longer than 5 years. The reality is long term cycle testing is infantile at best and most should go north of 10. There is plenty of information that’s not easily asseccible that says they last quite a while and many of the big manufacturers are stepping up their warranties. As an example, Panasonic warranties their panels at far less than .5% per year degradation.
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
50647 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:20 pm to
quote:

guess not. lay it out for me, don't spare the details



Nah, it's better if you just stay in the dark. Helps turn the moderates further away from the left.
Posted by tiggerthetooth
Big Momma's House
Member since Oct 2010
61342 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:23 pm to
quote:

Solar cells last longer than 25 years.


Which solar cells? How long do they last after adding weather changes and things like rain or snow, extreme heat or cold?

To suggest they universally without question last 25 years is pointless because that number is probably taken for perfect conditions.

Even then I dont think 25 years is correct.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162258 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:25 pm to
quote:

Bill Gates thinks we should start subsidizing battery storage, do these people even realize that solar cells last about 20-25 years before needing to be replaced, and the batteries will need to be replaced every 5. We are going to fill so many landfills with batteries and solar cells over the next 50 years of the green movement.

Or we could just recycle the batteries
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37716 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:26 pm to
quote:

Bill Gates thinks we should start subsidizing battery storage, do these people even realize that solar cells last about 20-25 years before needing to be replaced, and the batteries will need to be replaced every 5. We are going to fill so many landfills with batteries and solar cells over the next 50 years of the green movement.

Lead Acid batteries .... maybe ever five years if you don't know how to maintain them or if you let them drain to zero.

Lithium Iron Phosphate ... properly maintained can go ten years or longer.

New technology allows for lead acid recycling and more and more of that is happening these days.

The real problem with Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO, pronounced Liff Poh) is the rarity of some of the ingredients required, particularly triphylite. It's fairly scarce.

Energy Density is the key to all of this when it comes to batteries. Finding a compromise between Energy Density and safety is particularly key. It's basic E=MC2 physics. The more energy you pack into a smaller package the bigger the bomb.
This post was edited on 9/19/19 at 9:36 pm
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
99074 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:28 pm to
No.

They believe their power needs can be met this way.

frick everyone else.

Remember...in the USSR, the Party leaders had all the food and luxuries they wanted.
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
12614 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:28 pm to
Current mono cells last longer than 25 years. That’s been verified by numerous independent tests by DNV and other IE firms. Even older poly lasts but degrade more. If your opinion is that they completely fail, then the manufafruers have put their money where they mouth is because all the bankable manufactures have 25 year warranties with degradation maximums of .2% to .7% depending on the technology.
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
12614 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:31 pm to
Also in reference to the conditions, there’s been no correlation to failure and conditions. Production yes, and that’s in the tenths of a percentage point, failures no. They’re put through rigorous tests for investment from the largest banks in the world. They’re confident enough to throw billions of dollars at this.
This post was edited on 9/19/19 at 9:32 pm
Posted by cajunandy
New Orleans
Member since Nov 2015
674 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:32 pm to
quote:

Do you think the government should have taken 0 action against British petroleum in 2009


Yes, considering BP blew out the Deepwater Horizon on April 20, 2010.
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37716 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:34 pm to
quote:

Solar cells last longer than 25 years. They do degrade but don’t go to zero and the degradation is percentile based (about .5% annually) therefore the total wattage loss decreases with age. And battery tech lasts longer than 5 years. The reality is long term cycle testing is infantile at best and most should go north of 10. There is plenty of information that’s not easily asseccible that says they last quite a while and many of the big manufacturers are stepping up their warranties. As an example, Panasonic warranties their panels at far less than .5% per year degradation.

Well done.

100% correct.

I might add that degradation can be slowed by lowering temperatures over the life of the panels ... which currently is being done by incorporating cooling systems that either passively produce hot water or heat homes via conduction radiation much like the old oil filled radiator systems that used to be common in old buildings.

Modern charge controllers and inverters make systems far more user friendly these days and extend both the life of the panels and the battery banks.
Posted by Brazos
Member since Oct 2013
20362 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:35 pm to
Oh you big pussy, there are enough fossil fuels for a very very long time.
Posted by Colonel Flagg
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
22815 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:36 pm to
quote:

does the right really believe we can go on with fossil fuels forever?

it's clear you have no interest in honest debate so enjoy your circle jerk


When do you expect us to run out and it not be viable? Is that your stance that we are running out of time? Honest debate.
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
12614 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 9:40 pm to
Yeah the modern micro or optimized platforms are light years ahead of anything previously deployed. I monitor about 100,000 systems across the country anywhere form 0-6 years old and the newer tech kills it on efficiency, diagnostics and reporting.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162258 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 10:01 pm to
quote:


Yes, considering BP blew out the Deepwater Horizon on April 20, 2010.

Not really the most important detail now is it?
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162258 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 10:04 pm to
quote:

you big pussy, there are enough fossil fuels for a very very long time.

Sure and we'll probably need to reserve them for use in applications for which there is no tangible substitute. They will eventually be displaced on the grid by emerging green tech that has been growing very rapidly.
Posted by tiggerthetooth
Big Momma's House
Member since Oct 2010
61342 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 10:12 pm to
quote:

Also in reference to the conditions, there’s been no correlation to failure and conditions. Production yes, and that’s in the tenths of a percentage point, failures no. They’re put through rigorous tests for investment from the largest banks in the world. They’re confident enough to throw billions of dollars at this.



Geography is also a big factor in solar panel effectiveness. Theres an extraordinary number of variables involved. What's generated in California will not be generated in Texas or Florida, not even Arizona.


Dry/wet conditions effect sunlight, even if they dont effect the solar cells themselves.



Posted by tiggerthetooth
Big Momma's House
Member since Oct 2010
61342 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 10:13 pm to
quote:

emerging green tech that has been growing very rapidly.


What green tech that isnt solar energy or wind farms? Battery tech isnt anywhere near what it needs to be.
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37716 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 10:17 pm to
quote:

Yeah the modern micro or optimized platforms are light years ahead of anything previously deployed. I monitor about 100,000 systems across the country anywhere form 0-6 years old and the newer tech kills it on efficiency, diagnostics and reporting.


I consult for an engineering firm that specializes in power engineering, surveying, land development and construction in the solar energy industry as well as oil and gas.

You are no doubt monitoring some of our completed projects. We've done quite a bit in Mexico as well.

About ten years ago I became so fascinated with solar that I designed and built my own system, with the help of a friend in the upstate (Engineer775 on YouTube, Clemson guy) that I learned a lot from over the years. We just recently upgraded our entire system here at the farm house and moved our old existing system over to the barn after tweaking it with some new remote monitoring things here and there ... and I built my own Tesla Wall last year sort of as a hobby project, which I have been very satisfied with now powering my man cave.

Additionally, I moved to zoned split mini ACs and it was one of the best moves I've ever made.

We're now net energy producers and, while we remain grid connected as backup and to run the main 5 ton HVAC when needed in very very prolonged hot weather, the system will pay for itself inside of seven years whereas the old return rate model was more in the 10-15 year range.

ETA: The new system we installed is also EMP hardened.
This post was edited on 9/19/19 at 10:20 pm
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
12614 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 10:20 pm to
No ones arguing that irradiance is more favorable in some areas than others. But feel free to school me on GHI. I wonder if there was only a way to model these differences and size a system to the consumers needs based on something like a large dataset that takes into account all these variable factors. Hmm, if only.
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
12614 posts
Posted on 9/19/19 at 10:23 pm to
That’s awesome. I actually haven’t put anything on my current place because it’s a townhouse and the roof isn’t favorable. My next house will be built with off grid capabilities for sure.

Everything I do is resi at the moment. But we work with all the big IE firms (dnvgl, b&v, etc) to vet projects and tech.
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