re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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yes we have a general idea, there's data out there regarding the efficiency of various strategies

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What's the source of this data?

I don't know, I've just seen it referenced from various epidemiological folks in the field

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A bunch, okay - but "bunch" really isn't science.

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And you multiplying active cases by 10 to get total cases isn’t either.

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And you multiplying active cases by 10 to get total cases isn’t either

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That's the difference between a question and a statement. I asked whether or not we knew there wasn't 10x the cases. I'm smart enough not to argue knowing something I don't (not saying anyone here is, just pointing out I haven't).

I think it's pretty reasonable to ask questions - and one of the big ones for me is how many have/had the virus. And the unfortunate truth is nobody knows to any meaningful precision. Perhaps I'm simply unaware of some data that answers that question? - that's why I'm asking.

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A bunch, okay - but "bunch" really isn't science. Do we know there isn't a much bigger bunch that isn't in the denominator? I just mentioned above they're not even testing people in LA with symptoms unless they're headed to treatment.

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I’m sure we’ll eventually be able to get a better estimate of the true fatality rate when it’s all said and done, but we’re at 1.4% CFR compared to 4.47% worldwide.

And South Korea had one of the most extensive and proactive testing (and as a result quarantine programs) to both limit the cases and the severity. And they’re far further along where the spread is really slowing (about 1.2% per day over the last week) and their active cases have actually decreased.

And they’re at a 1.33% CFR as their fatalities have increased at a far greater rate than their new cases (5.8% vs. 1.2%) and while their active cases have decreased. Presumably, that’s a result of the lag between identification and deaths.

So I don’t see the actual fatality rate being much lower than 1.3%, with maybe a lower bound of 1%, and that’s under the best case scenario. Our 1.4% seems pretty good all things considered.

Tiguar how are your people doing?

having trouble getting people off vents

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Are any of you getting scared or anxious? Or are you remaining calm?

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I'm calm because I know what I signed up for. I'm anxious for those around me. I always have it in the back of my head my elderly parents might get this and might not come back from it. That is my only fear. I have told them I wont visit them until this is mostly resolved.

Who do we test next? I ask as the tests are down in Lafayette as far as the news is reporting.

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its going to get worse before it gets better, and I'm afraid it wont get completely better until we get a vaccine

we need to be working around the clock on this

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I call that Governor in Nevada and follow his advice