re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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Wtf?????

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Using Worldmeter’s data, there are 778 deaths as of today, March 24th. Here are the totals from the Tuesday, of the last 4 Tuesdays (including today).

March 24th—778
March 17th—109
March 10th—30
March 3rd—9

That’s an overall daily growth rate average of 23.7% but here are the daily growth rate averages by week.

March 24th—32.4%
March 17th—20.2%
March 10th—18.8%

So as you can see, the growth rate has been accelerating each week. But even if we just use the 23.7% 3 week daily growth rate average, that would be 15,210 deaths in 14 days 18,809 deaths in 15 days, an increase of 3,599 in one day.

So for that to not happen, the rate would not have to stop accelerating, it would have decelerate, and that deceleration would need to happen quickly. I am hopefully we’ll peak in 2 weeks, and we’ll decelerate the growth, I’m just not hopefully that we won’t hit a 3,000 daily death total at its peak though.

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3000 deaths per day here is equivalent to 545 deaths in Italy. Which is about what we are seeing there

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So far, it’s peak at 793 deaths in one day, and the 5 day average is 683 per day.

Their peak is equivalent to 4,440 daily deaths in the US and their 5 day average is 3,738. So if we only peak at 3,000 then we’ll still be at only 67.6% of their peak.

Edit: Worldmeter’s final total for March 24th was updated to 778, so I’ve adjusted those figures to reflect that.

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bottom line is we know there are 50k cases. Those 220 that died today were sick and probably positive a week ago when there were 20k cases. This isn’t the flu.

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There wasn't 20k cases a week ago.

There might have been 100,000. Or 250,000. Perhaps even 500,000. I think the point is we don't really know how many have or had the virus, which makes the mortality rate a guess, and not necessarily an educated one.

I cannot wait until the antibody tests come

The results could be absolutely remarkable

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There might have been 100,000.

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That wouldn’t fit what we know to this point. It’s more likely that 20k known cases represents somewhere between 32,000 and 100,000 cases at the upper bound.

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I’m just not hopefully that we won’t hit a 3,000 daily death total at its peak though.

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As ugly as that will be, that’s probably a win overall for the country.

Tiguar, do you think a national lockdown is necessary or do you prefer states and mayors deciding?

I personally think a national lockdown is unnecessary

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That wouldn’t fit what we know to this point. It’s more likely that 20k known cases represents somewhere between 32,000 and 100,000 cases at the upper bound.

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So at the lower end of that range, you believe 2/3rds of everyone with (or had) the virus had been tested a week ago? Do we know enough to make that call?

I don't understand why there hasn't been a serious randomized national test yet. Granted, test kits were/are a rare commodity, but it seems getting a scientific fix on a certain point in time would be monumental for understanding/planning what we're going through.

Honest question - do we have a solid understanding of how effective these lockdowns are? I'm a bit skeptical, but hopefully the numbers start indicating they're making a difference (or not).

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As ugly as that will be, that’s probably a win overall for the country.

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Agreed. In the worst case scenario, where the virus spread unabated, then both the case total and the fatality rates as a percentage of those causes would have increased significantly since the more it spreads the more severe the outcomes, both as the hospitals become less capable of handling the cases and it’s hard to control the spread to the most at-risk population.

I would guess that we could have easily seen 10+ times the fatalities, IF we just let it go on its course, although it would have been nearly impossible not do something though.

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You’re arguing that hundreds of thousands of people are symptomatic and aren’t being tested.

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I'm arguing there are loads of people that are mild/asymptomatic that belong in the denominator of the mortality rate calculation.

By the way, re: getting close to testing the shite out of this, they're not testing in LA anymore unless the person presenting with symptoms meet the criteria of acutely at-risk.