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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Posted on 4/7/20 at 9:16 pm to
Posted by dafif
Member since Jan 2019
8598 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 9:16 pm to
The news here in Orlando keeps showing the reporter at the convention center where they have drive up testing. Everytime they go on air, the place is empty. I think there was some discussion of shutting it down.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129629 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 9:17 pm to
quote:

I really think we're missing the point that new cases are flat because testing is flat.


I mean 216k is a pretty big outlier to just pretend it’s not there. Over the last 5 days, we’ve averaged 153k tests/day.

The previous 5 days were 104k tests/day on average.

ETA: the day with the most tests had the lowest % of positives.
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 9:19 pm
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
67437 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 10:38 pm to
quote:

You know the irony of your obsession with a statistic that is not important until we’re on the backside of the outbreak, is that if they started wasting time and resources on coding recoveries, there would be fewer recoveries and more deaths.


I don't think it's possible to have more deaths. That number is clearly inflated.
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
67437 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 10:42 pm to
quote:

If you take out the NY and NJ numbers, the daily confirmed cases has been dropping for 4 days in a row now.


Where are you seeing the numbers with NY/NJ broken out?
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 10:43 pm
Posted by Poncho and Lefty
Guntersville, AL
Member since Jul 2018
834 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 10:45 pm to
Posted by Ingloriousbastard
Member since May 2015
917 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 10:46 pm to
But If people don’t get sick or have symptoms, then they do not get tested. Is it not possible that this has led to less tests being administered than there otherwise would be if symptomatic people were increasing?
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 11:18 pm to
1900 deaths today is upsetting.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
74630 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 11:24 pm to
quote:

1900 deaths today is upsetting.
it will get worse next few days
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 11:25 pm to
I had hope we would hover around a 2000-2200/day max for awhile but that hope is just about gone.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 11:27 pm to
Btw, Spain passed Italy for most deaths per capita.
Posted by TeLeFaWx
Dallas, TX
Member since Aug 2011
29311 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 11:55 pm to
quote:

I had hope we would hover around a 2000-2200/day max for awhile but that hope is just about gone.


2500 isn’t unreasonable for a peak.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129629 posts
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:16 am to
We’re looking at 2700-3,000/day in 10 days unless something is materially changing.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
74630 posts
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:22 am to
quote:

We’re looking at 2700-3,000/day in 10 days unless something is materially changing.
The IMHA (spelling?) model has us peaking at deaths on April 17
Posted by trinidadtiger
Member since Jun 2017
20609 posts
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:32 am to
quote:

But If people don’t get sick or have symptoms, then they do not get tested. Is it not possible that this has led to less tests being administered than there otherwise would be if symptomatic people were increasing?


This is what I think is happening. We are fast approaching the point where there just arent enough people who feel its necessary to get a test because they arent sick.

In other words, if we test 300,000 tomorrow, to Inglorious point, we would probably still only get 30-35 thousand positive and the percentage would drop to 10 or 11%.

The "test constraints" crowd would have you believe if we tested 3 million tomorrow then we would have the same positive percentage rate or close to 500,000 cases. They arent there.

And on the backside, with all the testing of different drug packages, we are going to see the percentage of sick who die decrease as well....no matter how many influenza/flu/car wreck victims they throw in there (because they were already in the mix to begin with).

Within the next week we will be testing all possible and the raw number of positives will not increase and it will become evident its run it course and time to get back to work.

A native american elder once said "When the Shoshone came we sent the old men to fight, when the Apache came we sent our little boys, when the Lakota came....we put on our death masks and prepared to die".

Despite all the doom and gloom the msm can muster, this aint the Lakota, time to take off those death masks and get back to keeping America great, and never forget what the chinese have done to this country of ours.

Posted by berrycajun
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
7227 posts
Posted on 4/8/20 at 4:45 am to
quote:

Where are you seeing the numbers with NY/NJ broken out?


This breaks down every state really well

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129629 posts
Posted on 4/8/20 at 6:34 am to
quote:

The IMHA (spelling?) model has us peaking at deaths on April 17


As long as we’re popping more new cases per day, I’m not confident we’re peaking.
Posted by TeLeFaWx
Dallas, TX
Member since Aug 2011
29311 posts
Posted on 4/8/20 at 6:46 am to
quote:

We’re looking at 2700-3,000/day in 10 days unless something is materially changing.


Well deaths lags behind cases, and the daily growth rate for cases has clearly started trending downwards.
Posted by Eat Your Crow
caught beneath the landslide
Member since May 2017
9190 posts
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:14 am to
The updated UW model (for whatever that's worth) now has the peak in 4 days at ~2,200 deaths.

Tuesday's totals were probably artificially high from the weekend.
Posted by uppermidwestbama
Member since Nov 2014
2097 posts
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:21 am to
I think we see a drop in confirmed cases. We have hit our peak. I look for new hotbeds and not just a daily total number. We will see a gradual decline in confirmed cases over time. We aren't going to see it drop by 15k cases at a time. I will be gradual.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
96151 posts
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:37 am to
quote:

We have hit our peak.


I'm not disagreeing with you, but I think we're a couple of days too soon to make this call.

It does appear to have stabilized and we may very well be at the peak of the pandemic.
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