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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:00 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:00 pm to Chromdome35
Sorry for the delayed update. I was occupied 
5
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:01 pm to Chromdome35
Everything appeared to slow today, is it real or is it more weekend weirdness?
Guess we'll find out in a few days.
Today marks the first day we saw fewer new cases than the previous day. If this is a true trend, then it is the most positive indicator we've had that we have reached some kind of peak. Until proven otherwise, I'm considering today's case growth numbers with a large helping of skepticism.
The same applies to deaths. They are bouncing up and down and not following any reasonable growth pattern. I suspect this is due to reporting issues and inconsistency.
The number of tests fell back to its previous levels after yesterday's large increase.
Guess we'll find out in a few days.
Today marks the first day we saw fewer new cases than the previous day. If this is a true trend, then it is the most positive indicator we've had that we have reached some kind of peak. Until proven otherwise, I'm considering today's case growth numbers with a large helping of skepticism.
The same applies to deaths. They are bouncing up and down and not following any reasonable growth pattern. I suspect this is due to reporting issues and inconsistency.
The number of tests fell back to its previous levels after yesterday's large increase.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 9:14 pm
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:01 pm to Lickitty Split
quote:
I wish our boy would update this.
You got any more of those graphs?
ETA: I really appreciate how much you've put into this thread. Thank you.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:01 pm to Chromdome35
Worth the wait
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:02 pm to PurpleGoldTiger
That made me actually laugh out loud.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:04 pm to Chromdome35
Our boy chrome got a little hanky panky
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:06 pm to Chromdome35
Hope you had a great Sunday Chrome.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:09 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:19 pm to wickowick
As I stated a couple of days ago, we are now seeing FEWER confirmed cases per test performed as a country. As the weather continues to warm that will only help.
For the first time in two weeks, regardless of the lag and inconsentices in reporting, we saw a decrease in confirmed cases.
There are only four problem areas - one in New Orleans, two in NYC, and one in NJ. The rest of the country is fine and the virus is running its course through the communites.
They say half of the people with COVID19 never develop symptoms, but I believe the real number is closer to 90 percent.
The volunerable are those that produce too many of whatever those receptors are called that this virus attaches onto, fricken up the lungs by making the fluid sticky. A vaccine will take care of this issue in the long run.
Just get the Abbott test available on a larger scale so people just need to go to urgent care to get tested.
For the first time in two weeks, regardless of the lag and inconsentices in reporting, we saw a decrease in confirmed cases.
There are only four problem areas - one in New Orleans, two in NYC, and one in NJ. The rest of the country is fine and the virus is running its course through the communites.
They say half of the people with COVID19 never develop symptoms, but I believe the real number is closer to 90 percent.
The volunerable are those that produce too many of whatever those receptors are called that this virus attaches onto, fricken up the lungs by making the fluid sticky. A vaccine will take care of this issue in the long run.
Just get the Abbott test available on a larger scale so people just need to go to urgent care to get tested.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:28 pm to Chromdome35
Looks like the total number of recoveries will be double the total numbers of deaths by the end of day tomorrow.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:35 pm to imjustafatkid
This looks like the first time the growth in total cases was actually less than the day before.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:42 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:I don’t know why you’re so focused on recoveries since as long as it’s a virus that people recover from and in a somewhat short period of time (weeks, months at most), then eventually recovers will just be the # of cases - # of deaths.
Looks like the total number of recoveries will be double the total numbers of deaths by the end of day tomorrow.
And even using the current worldwide case fatality rate (5.45%), which is likely 3-5 times greater than the “true” fatality rate (1-2%), there will be 17 times more recoveries than deaths.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:49 pm to buckeye_vol
So I’m a few months say the fall and I’m not feeling well, running fever, I’ll go to the walk-in clinic.
Will they still test for flu first and if neg then covid? If only want to get tested in the event that it would be flu in which they could give tamiflu. Who knows if they’ll give the meds for covid.
Thoughts?
Will they still test for flu first and if neg then covid? If only want to get tested in the event that it would be flu in which they could give tamiflu. Who knows if they’ll give the meds for covid.
Thoughts?
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:50 pm to Jrv2damac
quote:
This looks like the first time the growth in total cases was actually less than the day before.
I remember one day in feb where China released that they had 15k cases in one day and everybody was all shocked. Now, we're relieved about 25k for one day. Kind of odd how perspectives change over time if you think about it.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:52 pm to Jrv2damac
quote:
This looks like the first time the growth in total cases was actually less than the day before.
Sunday is a slow report day probably.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:54 pm to Jrv2damac
quote:This time last Sunday there was about a 4.2% drop in case growth, but it was eventually revised up to about a 3.2% increase.
This looks like the first time the growth in total cases was actually less than the day before.
In fact, 2 Sundays ago was even more extreme since both Sunday and Saturday figures were updated: it went from a 10.7% decrease to a 94.5% increase.
In other other words, weekend data appears to have more error both in the final reporting and the updates of it, and usually shows a more “rosy” picture. I would imagine that Palm Sunday could make that even more dramatic today.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:56 pm to Chromdome35
I appreciate it! Thanks for keeping track of this
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:00 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
is it more weekend weirdness?
The potential is there for some hinky revisions through Tuesday, but this feels different than the last couple of weekends, if you want a totally subjective, unscientific take on this.
Just feels different.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 10:01 pm
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:06 pm to tiger91
quote:I would sure hope so.
Will they still test for flu first and if neg then covid?
Luckily the the rapid flu tests are more likely to yield a false negative (specificity/true positive detection is only 50 to 70 percent) than a false positive (sensitivity/true negative detection is 90 to 95 percent).
That said, I would think that due to the alternative (COVID-19), the risk of a false positive would make a more accurate flu follow-up test and/or a COVID-19 test more common than usual.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:29 pm to uppermidwestbama
quote:
What makes me scratch my head is, how can NYC have this daily intubated problem but no other metro area has this same problem?
Subways...are overcrowded
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