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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:44 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:44 am to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
2
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:47 am to halleburton
Halleburton, I think the increase in mortality rate is due to the fact that the number of cases is artificially low due to testing constraints. Deaths have no such constraint (people are going to die regardless of how many have been tested).
This graph shows the growth rate of cases vs the growth rate of testing.
So the # of deaths is increasing organically while the number of cases isn't keeping up because of testing.
The formula for Mortality Rate is (# Deaths / # cases)
This graph shows the growth rate of cases vs the growth rate of testing.
So the # of deaths is increasing organically while the number of cases isn't keeping up because of testing.
The formula for Mortality Rate is (# Deaths / # cases)
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 11:26 am
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:53 am to Chromdome35
why is the mortality rate near 2.4% in this chart?
what is going on?
not of this is making sense
why aren't the infections numbers doubling every 2 days?
how many test per day are doing now?
what is going on?
not of this is making sense
why aren't the infections numbers doubling every 2 days?
how many test per day are doing now?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:58 am to Chromdome35
2 weeks. Most people will be going back to work.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:00 pm to Chromdome35
How many days before recoveries more than triple deaths? I'm thinking 7-10 days.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:02 pm to ApexTiger
quote:
why is the mortality rate near 2.4% in this chart?
what is going on?
not of this is making sense
why aren't the infections numbers doubling every 2 days?
how many test per day are doing now?
The mortality rate is as useless as social distancing and shelter in place orders are right now. They have no idea how many people have been infected.
ETA: They're also inflating the death numbers by counting any death of a person who has coronavirus to the coronavirus even if coronavirus did not contribute to their death.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:06 pm to Langland
We are at 7,800 deaths after 2 months in a country of 350 million people and the vast majority are over 65 years old. Data out of Italy modeled that over 80% of deaths would have died of something else in the next year. There is a 0.05% mortality rate for those under 45 who contract COVID. Over 55,000 a year die of the flu in the US in any year. Still hard to believe we are creating an economic depression for these numbers
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 12:09 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:11 pm to Drizzt
Actually the average is 37,462 with a low in 2011-2012 of 12K and a high of 61K in 2017-208
You can see that data here at the CDC website.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
And that data is just estimated. The CDC also publishes the actual numbers that they use for those estimates which are substantially lower
You can see that data here at the CDC website.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
And that data is just estimated. The CDC also publishes the actual numbers that they use for those estimates which are substantially lower
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:12 pm to Drizzt
We’ve had over 7600 deaths in just two weeks, not two months.
ETA: Ya stinkin Drow!
I’m currently in my second read of the Drizzt series.
ETA: Ya stinkin Drow!
I’m currently in my second read of the Drizzt series.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:16 pm to Chromdome35
if you combine the entire state of cali (40mil), the entire state of fla (21.5mil), the entire state of mich (10mil), the entire state of louisiana (4.5mil), the entire state of washington (7.8mil), the worst hotspots outside of NYC (83.5mil), you get just over 1600 DEATHS total.
somebody run those numbers. i'm too lazy
somebody run those numbers. i'm too lazy
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:19 pm to thetigerman
I have an original set of Gord of Greyhawk books signed by Gary Gygax.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:36 pm to Chromdome35
OMG that’s awesome. Gygax will always be a legend.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:11 pm to tiger91
quote:
Damn I’m 50 and am going to the grocery and Walmart and what without a worry. I wash my hands and stay a distance from people but other than that doing nothing different.
The Walmart in my area is imposing a maximum number of people that can be inside the store at any time. Based upon sq. footage, they said 900 maximum is allowed inside. They have closed one of the two entrances (the one closest to the grocery side), and left the other open.
Apparently their issue was that people are going to the walmart without even needing to shop for anything - they are using it like the typical mall, just going to hang out and have something to do. Apparently people are getting stir-crazy staying at home.
So the Walmart people are concerned about the health risks this is imposing on their work force, so first they put out a message on their facebook site asking people to be considerate and stop going to the Walmart just to hang out, and now they are imposing this customer restriction....
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:32 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 3:38 pm to Chromdome35
What are the nation’s top hot spots and what percentage do they occupy overall or is there a database or graphic readily available?
tia
tia
Posted on 4/4/20 at 4:30 pm to wfallstiger
quote:i somewhat answered just a few posts earlier. if you take away nyc, the rest of the nation is barely noticing this outbreak. 1600 deaths from the top 5 hotspots after at least 3 months.
What are the nation’s top hot spots and what percentage do they occupy overall
Posted on 4/4/20 at 4:51 pm to ApexTiger
quote:
how many test per day are doing now?
The latest number I saw was 130k/day
Posted on 4/4/20 at 5:25 pm to Chromdome35
What are the daily US deaths going to peak at? 10,000 per day?
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 5:26 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 5:47 pm to RidiculousHype
Depends where new cases peak at, obviously.
I would expect to see 8,000-10,000 deaths per day around 10 days from now. Somewhere around 25% of new cases 10 days prior.
I would expect to see 8,000-10,000 deaths per day around 10 days from now. Somewhere around 25% of new cases 10 days prior.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 5:49 pm to the808bass
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