re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

We’re at the 2 week point of social distancing. We should start to see the data move soon.

Right? I’m surprised it hasn’t bent yet tbh.

So many of the infections are in clusters that aren’t really affected by social distancing. You have a worker show up with the Rona at an assisted living and presto, you have 20 new cases before you know it.

A family practice doctor shut his office down today. Three staff infected.

They just flipped the clock to tomorrow. Final death count for 4/2 is 968. A decline from yesterday.

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.

Great work as always. I’m not following this as closely as some others, but weren’t we expecting a large day today because last night worldometer ended the day fairly early? Did that get mitigated cause they ended early tonight too?

I’m late to the party on this stuff somewhat but just curious. Was definitely happy/surprised to see deaths lower today and a lower growth rate on new cases.

The optimist in me wants to believe the increasing use of Hydroxychloroquine/Z packs nationally is the reason there was a decline in deaths today.

Don’t judge me!!

We aren't going to see the numbers drop from social distancing/home orders for another week. It takes a week to 3 weeks for most people to develop the symptoms.

We haven't hit peak in new casses per day and haven't hit the peak in deaths yet. We are about a week away from that, IMO.

What matters right is the growth rate of new cases (aka confirmed cases) per day. It needs to continue to slow down before we will see a decline in new cases.

Check out these two graphs of New Cases/Deaths plotted against cumulative cases/deaths. The Cases graph shows a much cleaner curve. The Deaths graph is much more choppy.

I didn't say we hopefully wanted the number of cases to increase dramatically.

I said that with faster testing available, we would see the number of cases rise because of the greater number of tests being administered.

Today wasn’t too bad. <1k deaths is nice psychologically if nothing else.