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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:57 pm to Fun Bunch
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:57 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:Okay, you’re crazy.
Call me crazy but I'm liking the looks of some of those graphs
I don’t think you know the numbers for today have at least 2 more updates before today is over.
0
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:03 pm to TigerDoc
quote:Perhaps it's because the overwhelming percentage of South Koreans in their healthcare system - from doctors and nurses down to the orderlies and cleaning crews.
South Korea managed to get it done right. Kudos to them.
I wonder if it wasn't all their testing regime. I wonder if they've got more trust in public health authorities than we do.
We don't have that here.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:07 pm to Chromdome35
Texas.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:08 pm to FearlessFreep
That could be part of it, it could also be due to the social norms of the asian countries. The populations are much more likely to conform to the regulations put in place. It could also be because they are all used to wearing masks all the time.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:12 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I suspect we might hit 1K deaths today, its mid-afternoon and we're already at 604 deaths for the day, if not today, then tomorrow.
With 4053 deaths yesterday, 1K deaths today would make the growth rate close to 25%, the highest in a week. That would wipe out a week’s worth of trending in the right direction. Let’s hope it’s only 800.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:12 pm to Chromdome35
They’re also better prepared nationwide for epidemics. Any country bordering China should be.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:21 pm to FearlessFreep
quote:
Perhaps it's because the overwhelming percentage of South Koreans in their healthcare system - from doctors and nurses down to the orderlies and cleaning crews.
You think the staff is better? I haven't considered that.
My assumption has been that it's testing combined with willingness of the broad public to follow hygiene and social distancing that we don't have here, where there's been a partially politicized response (as with almost everything, alas) with reds more skeptical of the recs than blues.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:22 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
they are all used to wearing masks all the time.
I think there's something to this & to Bass's comment about their proximity to China. They've been through this drill before with regard to SARS & other outbreaks.
ETA: Georgia going to shelter-in-place & students won't come back to school this term. That's FL, MS, and GA today...
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:12 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
Georgia going to shelter-in-place & students won't come back to school this term. That's FL, MS, and GA today...
Shouldn’t be a surprise considering Atlanta and Athens already had shelter in place put in about 10 days ago. And my fiancé is a grad student at UGA and she was told 10 days ago when Athens had it’s shelter in place school for the rest of the semester would be digital. The had classes postponed for 2 weeks and just resumed Monday via digital.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:16 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:20 pm to Magician2
This is interesting if other states are inflating their numbers.
*brit Hume just retweeted this out
*brit Hume just retweeted this out
quote:
NYC numbers are cooked so that "if it died, and it tested positive for Covid-19, book it" Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, "…the mistake is being made worldwide to report virus-related deaths (continued) soon as it is established that the virus was present at the time of death – regardless of other factors. This violates a basic principle of infectiology: only when it is certain that an agent has played a significant role in the disease or death...
quote:
(continued) may a diagnosis be made. The Association of the Scientific Medical Societies of Germany expressly writes in its guidelines: „In addition to the cause of death, a causal chain must be stated, with the corresponding underlying disease in third place on the death...
quote:
Question: 1. Is the most important indicator for judging danger of covid-19 reported # of positive-tested persons/deaths 2. # of persons actually/unexpectedly developing/dying from pneumonia (excess mortality). healthy pop = mild/moderate Covid-19 disease can be expected
quote:
CDC arrived at forecast of +/-100k to 240k dying from Covid-19 by modeling it on NYC = "if its no longer moving, it died of coronavirus" Going back to NYC chart: 3k to 9k people over 65 die monthly of influenza/pneumonia. +/-50% in the US have hypertension
quote:
Prez of Germany's Koch Institute confirmed test-positive deceased ppl are counted as "corona deaths" regardless of real cause: "We consider someone with a corona virus infection to be a corona death"
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:32 pm to Magician2
Yeah it's pretty nuts how they're reporting this. If you die for any reason, and had COVID in your system, the virus was the cause. That's pure nonsense.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:34 pm to imjustafatkid
It makes all of these numbers and graphs, while pretty to look at and impressive in the effort that went into them, pretty bunk and hard to trust.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:35 pm to SevenLinesofPine
I think we would all agree that it isn't perfect data, but it's all we've got to keep track of this.
Your always welcome to come up with something you think is more accurate.
Your always welcome to come up with something you think is more accurate.
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 5:39 pm
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:42 pm to Chromdome35
I don't think anyone is knocking your efforts Chrome. At least I hope not.
I think it's more disappointment in how the data is being collected which you have absolutely no control over.
You are correct in that it's really the best we got.
Appreciate what you are doing.
I think it's more disappointment in how the data is being collected which you have absolutely no control over.
You are correct in that it's really the best we got.
Appreciate what you are doing.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:45 pm to tgrgrd00
It's all good, I didn't interpret as a knock.
The truth is that the data and how it's being collected and reported is inconsistent. That's frustrating to all of us, but we don't control it so we just have to live with it.
We won't really know the real numbers for a long time, there is going to be a huge amount of analysis done on this after it's over.
The truth is that the data and how it's being collected and reported is inconsistent. That's frustrating to all of us, but we don't control it so we just have to live with it.
We won't really know the real numbers for a long time, there is going to be a huge amount of analysis done on this after it's over.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:46 pm to Magician2
They aren’t testing the strokes, etc for Coronavirus. They are testing the people with respiratory issues. Split it up all you want but it is playing a role in those deaths.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:52 pm to tigerskin
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:52 pm to SevenLinesofPine
quote:
It makes all of these numbers and graphs, while pretty to look at and impressive in the effort that went into them, pretty bunk and hard to trust.
I think the fact that they're inflating the numbers, and the numbers are still low, makes it pretty obvious that this has been a major overreaction.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:53 pm to tigerskin
quote:
They aren’t testing the strokes, etc for Coronavirus. They are testing the people with respiratory issues. Split it up all you want but it is playing a role in those deaths.
Maybe. Maybe not.
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