re: COVID-19 vs Influenza = False Narrative

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That's been my stance all along.

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I’m agreeing with you on it.

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What specifically about it?

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You aren’t coherent. You take Chinese numbers when it boosts the mortality rate and then discount them when it doesn’t help you. You completely ignored the numbers in Singapore because, well, it’s not clear.

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COVID-19 vs Influenza = False Narrative

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The comparison is in handling and presentation.
It is a response to the laypublic asking "What should we expect? / How should we act and react?"

Influenza is an excellent analogy.

Sure, there absolutely are differences in symptomatology, course homogeneity and virulence, but there are also similarities. Discounting those serves no purpose.

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One problem with comparing this to Influenza is that you're comparing the combined results of (at least) 2 strains of Influenza to the one strain of COVID-19.

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That changes CFR not one iota.

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Another problem with comparing this to Influenza is that Influenza has had worldwide saturation for at least a century

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There are over 100 strains of flu. Cross-immunity is not conferred.

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meanwhile COVID-19 is only ~3 months old and thus doesn't have nearly the depth of saturation as does Influenza.

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20% of common colds are caused by a coronavirus, just a different strain from COVID-19.

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You take Chinese numbers when it boosts the mortality rate and then discount them when it doesn’t help you.

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No, I see their numbers as an absolute floor. It's not less, but it could be more. That's how communist regimes operate.

You deserve an upvote for hanging tough and completing the OP.....I did read it, well done.

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but there are also similarities.

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They're both respiratory virus, that's about it. The flu isn't airborne (sneeze droplets don't count), while coronavirus is. That within itself should discount any comparison. It's much more contagious. That's how you went from one, or a handful of people in the Wuhan foodmarket to tens of thousands in a month and a half. The flu doesn't spread that fast from one, or a handful of people.

Comparing this to the flu could give the impression that we need to react as if its the flu, after all who's died in America?

No, we need to play it safe, shut down travel from China, Iran, and anyone else who doesn't seem to be able to contain it.

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if it wasn't so obvious that the left was basically cheering for this thing to be bad the reaction might be more measured

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There is an old saying out in the hard and dangerous Construction community..."sh*& and fall back in it". That is exactly what the Left is doing, as there is not a sane individual in this Nation that would pick Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden over Trump to run the show in a CRITICAL and dangerous National Security scenario. Hell, BOTH have raised their hands and pledged and OPEN BORDER with Universal Healthcare to all comers. I can just see them sell that on Stage when Trump calls them out for the insanity and moral outrage of selling out the American Citizenry for their delusional and essentially impossible virtue signaling, vote buying atrocity. Like Biden saying He WILL raise people's taxes.

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No one wants to read an essay, bruh.

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Which is a big part of the problem. I've laid out everything in a very easy to understand manner. Anyone wanting to discuss it without reading at least that much is doing both themselves and others a disservice.

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Having said that, it's easy to straddle the fence with topics like this one. It's also intellectually dishonest. The facts are there for us to see. There is no reason to mediate or to be a moderate.

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Wrong. The fence is exactly where we should be right now because we're so early into this. There's absolutely no benefit for over or under reacting other than stroking the ol e-peen once your "side" is proven right.

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This report from NBC News from 2018 said that new research has revealed that the flu virus might in fact spread through the air.

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Interesting, I wonder what's making this virus so much more contagious than the flu, then.

EDIT: I have to wonder if more follow up was done, as I've heard this repeated several times in the last week.

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Which is a big part of the problem. I've laid out everything in a very easy to understand manner. Anyone wanting to discuss it without reading at least that much is doing both themselves and others a disservice.

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I read through it. I was just giving you grief for writing it.

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The fence is exactly where we should be right now because we're so early into this.

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We're three months removed from patient zero. This thing first popped up in Wuhan back in December. To date, there have been only 85,000 infections - of which the vast majority were infected from the city of Wuhan. The metropolitan population of that city is roughly 19 million. That means the virus infected less than .04% of the population of Wuhan. The numbers are probably higher but I doubt they are significantly higher.

This thing is already showing signs of slowing down and it's very likely we won't be talking about it three months from now.

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Those mortality rates are almost certainly inflated due to the fact that many cases go undiagnosed.

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I don't disagree with that and it's a reasonable assumption but the uncertainty of the Chinese numbers is just enough to keep us from guessing how far off it is. As I mentioned, we'll be in a far better place to make an assumption like that once we're a month or three down the road.

I've made this point a few times in a few thread but I think it's worth repeating that if this gets loose in a San Fran, LA, Seattle, etc opioid-addicted homeless population then I think we see a spike in domestic mortalities that will play into the media's hype narrative. It's something we should be mindful of before it happens (and should actually be pondered by pundits now) so it isn't such a shock if it comes about.

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It is common that in almost all new disease cases the apparent mortality rate shrinks as familiarity with the disease grows

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Agreed, but that's the problem because right now it's still very new. People want a definite course of action immediately instead of waiting to see what the best course actually is.