COVID-19 vs Influenza = False Narrative

This place is often a shitshow for reasoned debate, but this whole COVID-19 issue is starting to make it look as unhinged as DU, Twitter or r/The_Donald (but without the bannings). It's embarrassing and I hope all of you reading this take a moment to calm down and at least open yourself to a more reasoned approach than e-peen measuring.

Let me state this plainly from the outset: we don't know enough yet. Period. Anyone in hysterics about "nothing to see here" is talking out of their arse every bit as much as the "OMG WORLD WAR Z!!1111" crowd. If you're in either crowd you're being a Greta Thunberg. You're better than that so just stop.

One problem with comparing this to Influenza is that you're comparing the combined results of (at least) 2 strains of Influenza to the one strain of COVID-19.

Another problem with comparing this to Influenza is that Influenza has had worldwide saturation for at least a century (we didn't have the means to isolate it until the 1930's so we have no idea how long it's been around), meanwhile COVID-19 is only ~3 months old and thus doesn't have nearly the depth of saturation as does Influenza.

Comparing it to something like cancer, drunk driving deaths, abortions, etc is equally ignorant. Again, just stop. If you aren't capable of forming a coherent stance without its foundation being some sort of comparison then don't even know enough to know you don't know enough.


I've seen people crowing that there are no US deaths and therefore it's innocuous. That's almost as fricking moronic as saying it's the next Black Death because it has a 7% mortality rate in Iran.

I've seen the CDC talking about fricking shutting schools and businesses down. ARE YOU frickING KIDDING ME!?!

I've watched as investors have been apoplectic this week. There were similar woes and cries when Trump began the Trade War with China, how did that end up again?

Instead of throwing out bullshite narratives that promote doom and gloom or push half-assed comparisons in a way that comes across as more desirous of just being contrarian than serious, let's instead look at what we know, what we don't know and what we can reasonably assume from those points then work from there.

What We Know

-It's highly contagious
-It can last on surfaces up to ~9 days
-People with weakened immune systems and/or respiratory issues are especially susceptible (as the atmosphere in many Chinese cities is absolute shite and ~50% of the population smokes, those factors probably weigh into it greatly)
-People can transmit it well before they ever show symptoms
-There is no vaccine for it yet
-Basic flu prevention (sneezing into your elbow, using hand sanitizer, etc) helps limit exposure and transmission
-People with healthy immune systems are FAR less likely to die from it
-Initial symptoms feel like that of a cold
-Recovery rates are climbing
-Recovery rates in almost all Western societies is 100%

Worldwide Mortality Rate: 3.4% (2,941/85,994)
China Mortality Rate: 3.59% (2,835/79,251)
Mortality Rate Excluding China: 1.5% (106/6,743)
LINK

What We Don't Know

-If climate or seasons impacts it
-If animals can transmit it (more importantly, if mosquitoes can transfer it)
-How much it's spread
-How many more recoveries and deaths have been missed due to not knowing to test for it until recently

Reasonable Assumptions

-We can reasonably assume that Western societies have far better health than the average Chinese because the mortality rates in almost all Western countries is 0% even after having thousands of cases confirmed
-We can reasonably assume that the vast, VAST majority of people will not die even as infection rates climb.
-We can reasonably assume our opioid-addicted homeless populations will be hit very hard when/if this ever gets loose in their groups.
-We can reasonably assume that group will see a higher mortality rate and thus skew the numbers upwards here in the US if such a scenario ever comes to pass.
-We can reasonably assume that if/when a vaccine comes out that people will flock to get it, thus damned near eradicating COVID-19 in most areas of the world.

What this all comes down to is that we can reasonably assume that until a vaccine is found it will be worse than a bad flu for the truly compromised (those with existing respiratory issues, heavy smokers, people with already-compromised immune systems) and somewhere in between a cold and a mild flu for those who are not heavy smokers and have healthy immune systems. Patience is the watchword. The next 2-3 months will give us a far more clear picture now that it's being found in people in Western countries who have no known direct ties to China travel (ie: what are the US stats 3 months from now compared to what China's stats were around January 1).


CHINESE FOOTNOTES:

The VAST majority of these deaths (96.3%) come from China. A higher mortality rate is to be expected as that's where it originated.

-We know the Chinese government has lied about epidemic numbers before.
-We know that they quarantined cities and millions and millions of people after only a couple thousand reported deaths.

If they have misreported numbers then they under-reported them. The worse the numbers are the worse it looks for their society, their healthcare system, their government and the more it hurts their already-battered-and-bruised economy. Reporting actual numbers or under-reporting are the only things that make sense.



***EDIT*** After I finished this I saw that the first death in the US has been announced. It changes nothing of what I've said at this point though. We're still far too early in this to make concrete statements comparing it to anything else.