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Started By
Message
Coronavirus going to hit its peak and start falling sooner than you think
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:20 pm
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:20 pm
LINK /
quote:
The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.
Like the flu, the coronavirus is afflicting high-risk groups: the elderly, those with *underlying health conditions like diabetes or heart disease and those with compromised immune systems. Are there exceptions? Sure. But that’s the case with almost every complex biological phenomenon of the kind.
More good news. This month, the Northern Hemisphere, which includes the countries with the most cases, starts heating up. Almost all respiratory viruses hate warm and moist weather. That’s why flu dies out in America every year by May at the latest and probably why Latin America has reported only 25 coronavirus cases. The Philippines, where I live, has about a third of the US population, but it’s so damned hot and humid here, so far we have had no confirmed cases of internal transmission.
Both the surgeon general and head of the CDC have advised we nix the masks; they don’t work. Instead, wash your hands with hot water and soap or an alcohol solution for at least 10 to 20 seconds. That way you won’t spread any germs when you use the TV remote to flip off the latest hysterical news report.
13
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:24 pm to Presidio
Good I had a Get Together for my daughters cape hanging cermlemony yesterday and no body has got sick
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:53 pm to Presidio
I give it roughly a week, to a week and half to hit its peak in the US. I think seasonality and/or a treatment and/or our extreme measures will knock it down at around that point. I’ll admit I’ve been wrong about all of this so far (never thought it would go this far), but I feel good about this prediction.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:02 am to Presidio
horse shite. they arent even allowing people to get tested in most instances
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:02 am to Presidio
I wish I could say I believe any information that comes from Chinese sources...
But I don't.
Not to disagree with OP... I believe based on what data has been released by other nations with similar population density and weather as the US, that the trend would seem to appear like the virus may run its course sooner than later, but in no way would I suggest we abandon the race to develop a vaccine.
The virus will likely try to make a comeback in the fall and winter. I'm fond of elderly people and I don't want them to die of an illness we could possibly cure, earlier than they need to.
But I don't.
Not to disagree with OP... I believe based on what data has been released by other nations with similar population density and weather as the US, that the trend would seem to appear like the virus may run its course sooner than later, but in no way would I suggest we abandon the race to develop a vaccine.
The virus will likely try to make a comeback in the fall and winter. I'm fond of elderly people and I don't want them to die of an illness we could possibly cure, earlier than they need to.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:10 am to Presidio
If heat kills it why is New Orleans a hot spot for it with temps around 80 degrees? I have been hopeful and banking on “once we get to late spring and into summer, this will die down just based on weather” but seeing New Orleans being so high per capita and then checking the weather worried me a bit.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:12 am to yellowhammer2098
What were the temperatures 14-21 days ago in New Orleans?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:14 am to SevenLinesofPine
quote:
Good I had a Get Together for my daughters cape hanging cermlemony yesterday and no body has got sick
This is a decent troll account. Kudos.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:19 am to Ingloriousbastard
quote:
but I feel good about this prediction.
I think the hysteria around COVID has gone down quite a bit now that people are being proactive and concientous of their decisions.
But even at today's press conference Fauci gave a vague "it could have" when asked if COVID will have peaked 45 days from now. And then the whole Trump team stressed the importance of staying diligent to fight this with their standards.
I'll still defer to the experts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:34 am to Presidio
Today was the 2nd highest growth rate since the US started tracking these things. We have so many people walking around and spreading the disease without showing any signs of symptoms. We’re a long was from being out of the woods. And many of the people testing positive passed it to people that are just now starting the incubation period.
It’s going to be an interesting couple of weeks.
It’s going to be an interesting couple of weeks.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:35 am to Ingloriousbastard
quote:
I give it roughly a week, to a week and half to hit its peak
I pray you’re right but seriously? We don’t even know what we know right now.
What miraculous development do you expect to happen in the next 7-10 days.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:39 am to Havoc
Refer to my previous post. Seasonality/treatment/our actions.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think so.
As far as treatments, google Chloroquine.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think so.
As far as treatments, google Chloroquine.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 12:41 am
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:40 am to MightyYat
quote:
And many of the people testing positive passed it to people that are just now starting the incubation period.
Not necessarily? If they test positive today but we’re truly positive for days no telling how many they infected before. Yikes.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:41 am to Ingloriousbastard
The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis....
Stopped reading after that sentence...
Stopped reading after that sentence...
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:43 am to Russ337
What are you referring to?
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 12:44 am
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:46 am to yellowhammer2098
quote:
If heat kills it why is New Orleans a hot spot for it with temps around 80 degrees? I have been hopeful and banking on “once we get to late spring and into summer, this will die down just based on weather” but seeing New Orleans being so high per capita and then checking the weather worried me a bit.
Probably because New Orleans is a high traffic tourist destination, and people are bringing their viruses with them from all over. That would be happening, anyway, just from the flu, I'd imagine. It'll die down as the the rest of the country heats up.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 12:49 am
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:50 am to Metaloctopus
Another reason being the weather in New Orleans just started to rise to 75+ last week. None of these shut downs really started to occur until last Friday. And the virus doesn’t really show symptoms till
About a week in which is when people finally decide to get tested. Then tests take 2-4 days to be confirmed.
The cases are going to rise tremendously over the next week because they are basically all people that got infected before the temperature got up to around 80s and bc it takes ~10 days from being infected to actually getting a positive test back.
We won’t for sure know if the rising temps, the shut down and social distancing is working for another 2 weeks IMO
About a week in which is when people finally decide to get tested. Then tests take 2-4 days to be confirmed.
The cases are going to rise tremendously over the next week because they are basically all people that got infected before the temperature got up to around 80s and bc it takes ~10 days from being infected to actually getting a positive test back.
We won’t for sure know if the rising temps, the shut down and social distancing is working for another 2 weeks IMO
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 12:51 am
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:53 am to MightyYat
quote:
Today was the 2nd highest growth rate since the US started tracking these things. We have so many people walking around and spreading the disease without showing any signs of symptoms. We’re a long was from being out of the woods. And many of the people testing positive passed it to people that are just now starting the incubation period.
It’s going to be an interesting couple of weeks.
My wife is an ER nurse at one of the local hospitals and just finished her second shift in a row. She said that they’ve really started coming in today with the three symptoms, but that they won’t know until the results come back on those that were tested. She expects the numbers to really start increasing once those results are in, but the problem is that it can take 2-3 days to get them back.
She said it’s already here (we only have a handful of local cases in our MSA), and that the number will show it by the end of the week for our area.
This is anecdotal, so take it for what it’s worth. If you can distance yourselves for a while, it’ll help.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:07 am to MightyYat
quote:
Today was the 2nd highest growth rate since the US started tracking these things
We also test more people every day than we did the day before. As long as testing continues to increase (given how few have still been tested in the US) it will be awhile still until we have a clearer big picture outlook. Nobody has any idea how many people are infected at the moment.
Until recoveries start outpacing new confirmed cases, it will be business as usual
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:08 am to TigerMan327
I talk to some of my friends in COLOMBIA and they have 75 cases, shite it's 94 degrees there and has been hot all dam year. Cartagena, Colombia.
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