re: Chinas debt rose to 40 Trillion USD, 304% of (supposed) GDP

quote:

---

Much research has been done to quantify the impact of the trade war on the two countries. Our analysis shows that China’s exports to the US have contracted by more than 7 per cent in the first five months of this year, down from double-digit growth before the tariffs came into effect. But if one focuses only on the tariffed goods, China’s shipments to the US have fallen by as much as 30 per cent.
On the US side, the pain is concentrated on two groups. Firstly, exporters are bearing the brunt of the shock from Beijing’s tit-for-tat retaliations. US data shows that tariff-hit exports to China plunged by 38 per cent after three rounds of tariffs. US farmers were hit the hardest, with soybean exports to China reportedly grinding to a halt last year. Under pressure to offer relief to his constituencies, President Donald Trump has demanded that China purchase a large sum of farm goods as a precondition to resuming trade talks post-Osaka.

The other victim of the trade war is the US consumer. According to recent research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the tariffs imposed last year had reduced US household incomes at a rate of US$1.4 billion per month. An updated analysis predicts that the latest tariff hike on US$200 billion of Chinese goods would cost the average US family an extra US$831 annually due to higher prices and loss of economic efficiency.

Sadly, the pain does not stop there. As the saying goes, when two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.

---

no winners

quote:

---

The goal of many of you posters here is to hurt China. You don't mind hurting Americans so long as China is hurt worse.

---

Nice spin with a half-truth. What you stated isn't wrong, it is just simply a portion of the equation. The end game is what is important. Imho, China will never come to the table unless they are under extreme economic pressure. They were gambling on being able to continue business as usual with America while the new Silk Road was coming online. Trump has thrown a massive wrench in their plans. As for your insistence that change was going to occur organically, I could not disagree more. President Xi controls the military, and they control ALL Chinese companies through communist proxy. They are concerned for ONE reason...Trump will back up what he says. They may slow play this and try to save face, but if they feel that Trump will be re-elected as we get closer to 2020, they will be at the table to deal. Just my .02.

true if they can make it to Jan 2021 and somehow Trump loses by Feb 2021 all sanctions will be lifted and China and Iran will be running free.

LINK
So they were just wrong for 10 years.
The low since 1986 is 97.80 in 2008.

something terrible has happened in the last month.
Moody's
June is at 100, the lowest point since 2008.

Farm trade is grossly exaggerated, Some of the soybeans were transhipped through Brazil (the chini taught us this trick with NAFTA). In addition pigs eat soybeans and well there are a couple 100 million less pigs in chini.

Farm exports from the US are down single digit overall and if Pelosi would get off her plastic arse and bring USMCA to the house floor that could be resolved post haste.

Lastly, contrary to your biased posts, chini has offered incentives to reduce costing of goods shipped, and importers in the US have eaten some margin, to keep the 25% tariffs to a net of around 5% for the consumer. Heck its part of the reason we have no inflation, we are importing deflation from chini! Their ex factory pricing is a brick wall, they cant move cause the items with tariffs are easily replaced due to price sensitivity.

While some worry about a few bucks more on goods, Im concerned about the 100s of dollars paid because chini keeps ripping off our tech and our own companies make us pay their new R&D in the cost of the products they sell us. Does anyone think US companies EAT THE 400 BILLION THEY LOSE IN IP EACH YEAR?????? Its a heck of a lot more than 5% cost on 250 billion.

quote:

---

Trump loses by Feb 2021 all sanctions will be lifted and China

---

BS the democrats LOVE tariffs. The failed leftist democrat Navarro is Trump's man on tariffs.

Have you heard a single criticism on tariffs from Pelosi or Schumer except to say they should be higher and punish Americans more?

So many people said this is about moving toward free markets and they will only be temporary.

Don't kid yourself. At least some part of it now is about winning union votes in PA, MI, WI and OH. Trump will gladly ignore Louisiana knowing he has it in the bag to do something to win those union yankee states. Its like democrats taking blacks for granted. Republicans now take the south for granted and run for the battleground states only.