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re: California Asks Residents to Avoid Charging Electric Vehicles

Posted on 6/25/21 at 10:20 am to
Posted by EA6B
TX
Member since Dec 2012
14754 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 10:20 am to
quote:

Yeah, in about 10 or 20 years after breaking even from the initial investment.


Solar cell output declines with age, current technology cells would have output down 75% after 20 years, they likely will never break even.
This post was edited on 6/25/21 at 10:26 am
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
18016 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 10:27 am to
quote:

Solar cells decline with age, and require replacement to restore output, they likely will never be profitable.


LID is real, but a seriously overblown talking point. The financial modeling typically uses LID that's way above the NREL recommendations and several times what what most manufacturers warranty against. There are many projects that are already profitable.

quote:

current technology cells would have output down 75% after 20 years


Holy shite no. Maybe for some knock off Chinese shite. Most Tier 1 modules have a warrantied degradation of .4-.5% per year. HALT testing and observed degradation are far less than the warrantied numbers.
This post was edited on 6/25/21 at 10:41 am
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
59193 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 10:50 am to
quote:

Do the calculation for the grid load of gas pumps and get back to me.




You mean the gas pumps which are normally working at those times regardless? The gas pumps whose energy use is already being taken into account in the current grid-use?

Enough with the common-sense questions, let's dig into the numbers.

There are an estimated 10,449 "fuel" stations in California (there are just over 8,000 "gasoline" stations but I'm feeling generous so I will go with the larger number just to cover everything not EV). The average station has 8 pumps, giving us potentially 83,592 individual pumps in California.

A gasoline pump uses ~3,960 watts per hour. We'll extend that to the other fuels (natural gas, etc) as well and just say it covers all "fuel pumps" for the sake of argument.

That means fuel pumps in California are using 331,024,320 watts per hour. Not all pumps are being used at all times (especially at night) and the average visit time to any station ranges from 10 minutes (just getting gas) to 20 minutes (gas, snacks, bathroom break, lotto tickets, etc). We can reasonably cut this near the middle and say 8 minutes for the ease of math. As all pumps aren't constantly in use it's also reasonable to estimate ~50% usage throughout the day (averaging all pumps together).

So 12 hours per day means just under 4B watts per day (again, we'll round up for easy math). Multiply that times 365 days and you get 1.45T watts per year.

In 2020 California had ~425k electric vehicles registered in the state. The average overnight recharge for an electric vehicle takes 7,200 watts. So that's 425,000 vehicles using 7,200 watts each per night for a total of 3.06B watts per night or 1.117T watts per year.

That's ~1.117T watts per year for just the current number of EV's in California versus the ~1.45T watts used by gas stations over the same year. In other words, EV-charging for just the current number of EV's has added an extra drain on California's grid which is nearly equivalent to what fuel pumps use.

Notice that underlined/italicized verbiage: "just the current number of EV's". There are over 35.5 MILLION vehicles in California. Even just replacing 1/3 of those (ie: 11.8 million) with EVs would create a far worse drain on the California electric grid than they have ever seen.

What you failed in seeing in this is the scope of energy use. While each pump uses more power than it takes to recharge an EV, each pump can service hundreds (up to just over 1k under ideal circumstances) vehicles per day and those vehicles will not need refueling every day whereas each EV is a direct draw each night. As this energy demand increases per each new EV it will only increase the drain on the grid.

This post was edited on 6/25/21 at 1:36 pm
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
18016 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 11:05 am to
I'll give you credit, that's a well thought out argument. Your assumption for daily EV consumption is too high based on the data I've seen from Tesla. But thank you for disproving you own point that gasoline powered vehicles don't have an associated grid load. I never stated that EVs have less of a load than gas pumps, only pointed out that
quote:

Gasoline-powered vehicles?

Oh, wait...
is incorrect.

And I'm not sure who this boogey man is that's somehow going to transform the entire country into EVs tomorrow. FFS guys even with the STRICTEST regulatory changes possible, we're 30+ years away from EVs being 51% of vehicles.
Posted by bluedragon
Birmingham
Member since May 2020
9527 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 11:12 am to
quote:

Maybe instead of paying 5.5B on past rents, they should invest in a better power grid


To meet their environmental BS ...California pawned off most of their production to Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico. Thus they claim to be the most "green power" capable in the nation.

California is in serious trouble .... No snow, no melt, rivers running low. Their neighbors are having problems keeping up. This is just the start to a long sweltering summer for the mind numb idiots with their heads stuck up Newsom's arse.

Be prepared ....LA should be up in flames by August.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
59193 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 11:15 am to
quote:

I'll give you credit, that's a well thought out argument.


Thanks. I had some bad data in there so I went back and revised it. The numbers are a bit closer now but as I added in my addendum it still means an extra draw on the grid now and a greater one (compared to pumps) as the number of EV's increase. So what we will see for a long time is an additive drain on the grid instead of an offset drain.

quote:

But thank you for disproving you own point that gasoline powered vehicles don't have an associated grid load.


The vehicles themselves don't, the fueling pumps do. It's entirely possible to refuel a gasoline-based vehicle without needing electricity (just annoyingly time consuming and far too cumbersome for stations to do it).



This post was edited on 6/25/21 at 11:20 am
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112848 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 11:20 am to
quote:

In 2020 California had ~425k electric vehicles registered in the state. The average full recharge for an electric vehicle takes 7,200 watts. So that's 425,000 vehicles using 7,200 watts each per night for a total of 3.06B watts per night or 1.117T watts per year.
I maybe misreading but are you assuming a "full recharge" meaning all 425k EVs are going from 0 charge to 100% every night to arrive at this number?
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
18016 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 11:28 am to
quote:

The vehicles themselves don't, the fueling pumps do. It's entirely possible to refuel a gasoline-based vehicle without needing electricity (just annoyingly time consuming and far too cumbersome for stations to do it).


Fair point, although I seriously at the idea of my wife hand cranking her own fuel. I have to do it to get the E98 in my car since it only comes in a drum.

My real point is that everything uses power. The infrastructure that supports ICE has a grid load. When I'm looking at these big project and we're going through technical diligence, they take everything into account and when you see it in aggregate, there's a whole lot going on. So vilifying EVs is misguided. And before someone jumps my arse, I still think forced roll outs are dumb as frick. However, there is a metric frick load of money going into the energy sector right now. I've already worked on $50B in projects this year. It might top $100B by the end of the year. Everyone knows we need to expand, not because of EVs, because its been neglected.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
59193 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 1:33 pm to
quote:

I maybe misreading but are you assuming a "full recharge" meaning all 425k EVs are going from 0 charge to 100% every night to arrive at this number?


Missed an edit on that. It looks to be that the 7,200 watts is the average nightly charge for EVs. (some of the more specific information is hard to find)

quote:

Most electric vehicles charging at home on a 240-volt level 2 charger will draw about 7,200 watts or less.


LINK

Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
59193 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

My real point is that everything uses power. The infrastructure that supports ICE has a grid load. When I'm looking at these big project and we're going through technical diligence, they take everything into account and when you see it in aggregate, there's a whole lot going on. So vilifying EVs is misguided. And before someone jumps my arse, I still think forced roll outs are dumb as frick. However, there is a metric frick load of money going into the energy sector right now. I've already worked on $50B in projects this year. It might top $100B by the end of the year. Everyone knows we need to expand, not because of EVs, because its been neglected.


I get it.

My point was that while an EV is doing a continuous charge and thus drawing from the grid during those times, a gasoline powered vehicle never does. The pumping aspect was an unexpected twist but an interesting one to dig a little into.

When you put forth the challenge I really thought the numbers would be much farther apart considering the number of EVs in California represents only .01197 of the total number of registered vehicles in the state. Scaling the watts needed to charge even 10% of their vehicular population means ~9.36T mostly extra watts per year (by that time it might have some slight impact on pump use, but that's going to be far too deep into the weeds for me to want to dig into :p ).

California annually uses around ~259T watts. That would mean just 10% of vehicles going EV equates to ~23% increase in total energy consumption for the state's grid. I thought it would be a decent bit of extra load when I read your post but I had no idea it would be that much. For a system with semi-regular rolling brownouts, even without the mandate (which we both agree is ridiculous) the increasing popularity of EVs out there is going to cause a very big problem for their grid sooner rather than later.
Posted by notsince98
KC, MO
Member since Oct 2012
22051 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 2:32 pm to
quote:

It's entirely possible to refuel a gasoline-based vehicle without needing electricity (just annoyingly time consuming and far too cumbersome for stations to do it).


Not really. Above ground tanks can eliminate the need for pumps at all. Just like water towers.

But this is silly anyway. Gas pumps have very small electrical loads. you wouldn't even be able to see the grid load fluctuate if you turned off all gas pumps at once.
Posted by Concerned Senior
New England
Member since Oct 2020
771 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 2:33 pm to
Thinking about that too. If they can't handle a heat wave, which is not a constant, how on earth will they handle all the electric cars if they become mandatory.
Posted by notsince98
KC, MO
Member since Oct 2012
22051 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

California annually uses around ~259T watts. That would mean just 10% of vehicles going EV equates to ~23% increase in total energy consumption for the state's grid.


Be careful. Don't confuse watts and watt-hour. Energy is measured in watt-hour and power (demand) is measured in watts.
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
57819 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 2:39 pm to
Posted by TigerVespamon
Member since Dec 2010
7508 posts
Posted on 6/25/21 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

This usually happens in the evening hours when solar generation is going offline and consumers are returning home and switching on air conditioners, lights, and appliances
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