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re: Breaking: Kari Lake loses trial to overturn Arizona Governor election - Vows to appeal
Posted on 12/27/22 at 9:45 am to loogaroo
Posted on 12/27/22 at 9:45 am to loogaroo
The issue is who is correct - the lawyer in an article who didn’t argue the case, or the judge.
If the judge applied the wrong standard (by requirement of specific intent), then Kari Lake gets a “de novo” review of the evidence presented at trial by the appeal court - who can sustain the judge’s ruling or reverse it on one or more grounds. If it reverses, can either decide the question itself based on the evidence in the record, or remand to the trial judge with instructions to reconsider it based on the “correct” standard which may or may not require additional evidence to be entered.
If the trial judge applied the “correct” standard (ie specific intent to change result of the election), then Kari Lake’s only hope for a reversal is if there was no evidence to support the trial judge’s findings. There was evidence to support the judge’s findings, I just don’t believe the evidence was “credible.” The appeal court cannot Re-weigh the evidence or reverse the trial judge bc it thinks the evidence was not credible. Credibility determinations belong to the trial judge.
FWIW - I have no idea if the trial judge applied the wrong standard. The statute does not contain a “specific intent” requirement in its terms (I don’t see one in the text). However, the trial judge cited and relied upon an Arizona Supreme Court decision to determine that such a standard existed. As I understand it, Lake’s lawyers relied on the same case to argue that they can get a do-over. Thus, I don’t see how they can now argue that the old Arizona Supreme Court case doesn’t apply.
If there was some legislative intent documented to overrule the specific intent requirement then maybe. There are also other rulings (for example the judge’s decision to dismiss the 8 claims that did not get tried) that could be subject to a reversal.
I don’t know the legal basis of the judge’s decision to dismiss those 8 claims - but if he made an error interpreting the law on any of them - the case could get reversed. Interestingly some of these were raised pursuant to the US constitution. So, if the trial judge or the appeal judge’s apply the wrong COTUS standard - Lake could go to SCOTUS. If the SCOTUS doesn’t want to get involved then they’ll say “writ denied.”
I’m not sure which judge decides on 9th Circuit cases to go before it. Any of you PoliBarristers know? (i think AZ is 9th).
All that said - while I disagree with the trial court’s decision, Lake’s appeal is DOA if the judge’s assessment of the law was correct as decided by Arizona courts. The factual review standard is nearly impossible to get, and I don’t think it’s met here. Her lawyers will argue it, but the appeal court will probably say, they defer to the trial court.
If the judge applied the wrong standard (by requirement of specific intent), then Kari Lake gets a “de novo” review of the evidence presented at trial by the appeal court - who can sustain the judge’s ruling or reverse it on one or more grounds. If it reverses, can either decide the question itself based on the evidence in the record, or remand to the trial judge with instructions to reconsider it based on the “correct” standard which may or may not require additional evidence to be entered.
If the trial judge applied the “correct” standard (ie specific intent to change result of the election), then Kari Lake’s only hope for a reversal is if there was no evidence to support the trial judge’s findings. There was evidence to support the judge’s findings, I just don’t believe the evidence was “credible.” The appeal court cannot Re-weigh the evidence or reverse the trial judge bc it thinks the evidence was not credible. Credibility determinations belong to the trial judge.
FWIW - I have no idea if the trial judge applied the wrong standard. The statute does not contain a “specific intent” requirement in its terms (I don’t see one in the text). However, the trial judge cited and relied upon an Arizona Supreme Court decision to determine that such a standard existed. As I understand it, Lake’s lawyers relied on the same case to argue that they can get a do-over. Thus, I don’t see how they can now argue that the old Arizona Supreme Court case doesn’t apply.
If there was some legislative intent documented to overrule the specific intent requirement then maybe. There are also other rulings (for example the judge’s decision to dismiss the 8 claims that did not get tried) that could be subject to a reversal.
I don’t know the legal basis of the judge’s decision to dismiss those 8 claims - but if he made an error interpreting the law on any of them - the case could get reversed. Interestingly some of these were raised pursuant to the US constitution. So, if the trial judge or the appeal judge’s apply the wrong COTUS standard - Lake could go to SCOTUS. If the SCOTUS doesn’t want to get involved then they’ll say “writ denied.”
I’m not sure which judge decides on 9th Circuit cases to go before it. Any of you PoliBarristers know? (i think AZ is 9th).
All that said - while I disagree with the trial court’s decision, Lake’s appeal is DOA if the judge’s assessment of the law was correct as decided by Arizona courts. The factual review standard is nearly impossible to get, and I don’t think it’s met here. Her lawyers will argue it, but the appeal court will probably say, they defer to the trial court.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 9:47 am to DisplacedBuckeye
I'm hardly a cultist claiming stolen elections, and I have serious problems with ballot harvesting and voting by mail (more specifically, how ballots are acquired to vote by mail). Do you believe it has no value or is unfair to design a system of voting that requires a modicum of effort in order to minimize the potential for fraud?
Posted on 12/27/22 at 9:57 am to loogaroo
quote:
quote:
Arizona law is clear: even inadvertent errors in election require setting aside result if it casts outcome in doubt. Intentionality is NOT required when the error casts actual winner "in doubt."
Where this argument falls apart is the "if it casts the outcome in doubt" part. And nobody arguing the judge's ruling was wrong has explained how KL's arguments casts the election's outcome in doubt. We're talking about a 17K vote deficit for Lake. If you take KL's arguments about all the shenanigans by county election officials - the 50 ballots by the contractor, and even the door 3 ballots - you don't get to 17K votes.
The only argument KL had that could make up a 17K deficit is if the printer/tabulator issues disenfranchised 25K+ voters (17K deficit divided by how in-person voting broke), and KL's team did not come close to credibly making that argument.
To legitimately dispute the judge's ruling, you've got to make that argument. That 25K voters either walked off lines and didn't vote elsewhere or didn't bother showing up to a voting center, because wait times were unreasonably long.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 9:57 am to David_DJS
quote:
Do you believe it has no value or is unfair to design a system of voting that requires a modicum of effort in order to minimize the potential for fraud?
Nope. We already have that.
We should all be voting from our smartphones by now, if not for the technologically illiterate and overly paranoid.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 9:59 am to DisplacedBuckeye
quote:If you thought "black people can't afford ID's" was bad...
We should all be voting from our smartphones by now, if not for the technologically illiterate and overly paranoid.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:04 am to VolcanicTiger
Double tap.
This post was edited on 12/27/22 at 10:06 am
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:05 am to VolcanicTiger
quote:
If you thought "black people can't afford ID's" was bad...
There are more smartphones than voters in this country.
Besides, would be a good way to put those "Obamaphones" to work.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:09 am to David_DJS
quote:
potential for fraud?
We have almost run the cycle of the Republican election defeat cycle:
There was fraud, tons of evidence;
There was fraud, people had to wait in line;
There was fraud, the Republican lost;
There was...potential for fraud
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:13 am to David_DJS
quote:
Where this argument falls apart is the "if it casts the outcome in doubt" part. And nobody arguing the judge's ruling was wrong has explained how KL's arguments casts the election's outcome in doubt. We're talking about a 17K vote deficit for Lake. If you take KL's arguments about all the shenanigans by county election officials - the 50 ballots by the contractor, and even the door 3 ballots - you don't get to 17K votes.
Correct me if I’m wrong but weren’t the “50 ballots” from a very small sample and the assumption that if you audited statewide the number would likely be far larger?
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:15 am to Robin Masters
quote:
Correct me if I’m wrong but weren’t the “50 ballots” from a very small sample and the assumption that if you audited statewide the number would likely be far larger?
You're confusing the ballots sampled that showed the 19" ballot image was a real thing.
The 50 ballots I'm referring to are the ballots brought into the ballot collection center by the contractor's employees.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:17 am to DisplacedBuckeye
quote:
Besides, would be a good way to put those "Obamaphones" to work
I think you mean BushPhones.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:18 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
There was fraud, the Republican lost;
Democrats are still up one stolen election. You idiots claim 2000 and 2016.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:18 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
We have almost run the cycle of the Republican election defeat cycle:
There was fraud, tons of evidence;
There was fraud, people had to wait in line;
There was fraud, the Republican lost;
There was...potential for fraud
You didn't address my question. Forget about the Dems and Reps that cry fraud every time they lose.
I'm asking - is it unreasonable/unfair or does it have no value to design a voting system with minimizing fraud in mind?
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:19 am to David_DJS
The lack of chain of custody of 17,000 ballots mixed in with 250000 ballots for which no chain of custody documents were produced places the result in doubt. No documentation existed to show any of theee ballots were legal votes:
The inference created by the 17000 undocumented ballots, along with the violations of law in other contexts (such as random Runbeck employees putting random ballots in with the rest) - are examples of circumstantial evidence. Circumstantial evidence is perfectly acceptable and admissible.
You seem to be expecting direct evidence on every element of proof. Circumstantial evidence including reasonable inferences from other direct evidence and expert opinion testimony are examples of circumstantial evidence. Circumstantial evidence is used by lawyers more commonly to prove cases, than direct evidence, particularly in those cases involving intent. For example, you can infer an intent to kill by the weapon selected. Circumstantial evidence is such a bedrock principle of law that it’s in standard jury instructions.
The inference created by the 17000 undocumented ballots, along with the violations of law in other contexts (such as random Runbeck employees putting random ballots in with the rest) - are examples of circumstantial evidence. Circumstantial evidence is perfectly acceptable and admissible.
You seem to be expecting direct evidence on every element of proof. Circumstantial evidence including reasonable inferences from other direct evidence and expert opinion testimony are examples of circumstantial evidence. Circumstantial evidence is used by lawyers more commonly to prove cases, than direct evidence, particularly in those cases involving intent. For example, you can infer an intent to kill by the weapon selected. Circumstantial evidence is such a bedrock principle of law that it’s in standard jury instructions.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:20 am to DisplacedBuckeye
quote:
Nope. We already have that.
We don't.
quote:
We should all be voting from our smartphones by now, if not for the technologically illiterate and overly paranoid.
I'd be all for it, but you're a racist, sexist Nazi for thinking this.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:26 am to Wednesday
quote:
The lack of chain of custody of 17,000 ballots mixed in with 250000 ballots for which no chain of custody documents were produced places the result in doubt
This didn't happen.
I don't know what to tell you if you don't want to look at the reality of what was testified to last week.
quote:
You seem to be expecting direct evidence on every element of proof. Circumstantial evidence including reasonable inferences from other direct evidence and expert opinion testimony are examples of circumstantial evidence. Circumstantial evidence is used by lawyers more commonly to prove cases, than direct evidence, particularly in those cases involving intent. For example, you can infer an intent to kill by the weapon selected. Circumstantial evidence is such a bedrock principle of law that it’s in standard jury instructions.
I'm okay with a rational narrative. I'm good with statistical estimates that simply touch on possible. But nobody has done that yet.
I'm not being obtuse here. I think I'm one of the few that's actually paying attention to the facts of the case.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:29 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
There was fraud, tons of evidence;
No, we're still right here. Don't confuse what can be proven beyond all reasonable doubt in a courtroom, with perhaps a biased judge who reached his conclusion well before the trial ever started, with what rational people know happened.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:31 am to David_DJS
quote:
We don't.
Sure we do. There are countless election laws designed to do exactly that.
quote:
I'd be all for it, but you're a racist, sexist Nazi for thinking this.
That's OK. Anyone who knows me knows I generally ignore insults because they're never from a source that I respect.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:34 am to David_DJS
quote:I think that we live in a federal system (in which the states run the elections) and that each state will make its election process as "secure" as is desired by the residents of THAT state.
Do you believe it has no value or is unfair to design a system of voting that requires a modicum of effort in order to minimize the potential for fraud?
Florida may have airtight systems and Wisconsin less so.
As it should be in such a federal system.
Posted on 12/27/22 at 10:34 am to Mickey Goldmill
And you are Biden's butt buddy.
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