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Bond market sends warning signal to Wall Street

Posted on 12/4/18 at 4:40 pm
Posted by Nastradamus
Member since Oct 2018
238 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 4:40 pm
LINK

quote:

Why the pessimism over that obscure-sounding shift? Historically, when short-term rates rise above longer rates – which is dubbed an "inversion of the yield curve" – it signals an economic slowdown is coming.

"Investors are questioning whether the Treasury market is telegraphing a more material economic slowdown," says Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.

But fears of a coming recession weren't the only thing worrying investors. Other fears that drove the Dow down 3.1 percent to 25,027 Tuesday include:


quote:

Fading glow of trade cease-fire

The optimism following the cease-fire on trade between the U.S. and China over the weekend at the G-20 summit lasted just one trading day. Now there's rising skepticism about whether a deal between the world's two biggest economies can be reached during the 90-day pause.

That's causing a lot of uncertainty for investors and is exacerbating worries about slowing growth, as tariffs result in higher prices for goods, which hurts sales and earnings of U.S. companies.

"The post G-20 relief rally in stocks seems to be fizzling out," Oliver Jones of investment research firm Capital Economics says.



quote:

Stocks fall below key price floor

The broad Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, which lost 3.2 percent, also fell below a key price level that suggests its long-term trend of rising prices might be coming under assault. The large-company stock gauge dipped below its average price over the past 200 days, which prompted jittery investors to sell stocks more aggressively.



Glad Trump sent signals to Fed not to raise interest rates again. Clearly they listened. Economy isn’t in bear or bull market imo. Think we are in a wait and see mode but we certainly need this trade war to end and I do think it ends soon. Maybe that can be a positive catalyst going into 2019.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69294 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 4:41 pm to
Rakim alter

Same exact posting style and the key tell tale sign: changing avatar pic every day to some random political figure

I’ll be notifying relevant authorities
Posted by MisslePig
Member since Jul 2018
961 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 4:45 pm to
Jesus...the inaccurate assumptions you're reaching for are on an IB Freeman level.
Posted by Seldom Seen
Member since Feb 2016
40106 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 4:46 pm to
Our President warned us that this would happen if we elected Democrats to Congress.
Posted by Nastradamus
Member since Oct 2018
238 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

Jesus...the inaccurate assumptions you're reaching for are on an IB Freeman level.


I really don’t know what’s going on here?

If I’m not welcome I’ll leave though?

I didn’t mean to offend anyone.
Posted by biscuitsngravy
Tejas, north America
Member since Jan 2011
3000 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 5:06 pm to
quote:

Our President warned us that this would happen if we elected Democrats to Congress


Lol there it is. Before the new congress is even sworn in

These trillion $ budget deficits and trade wars are all the orange man.
Posted by WildTchoupitoulas
Member since Jan 2010
44071 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 5:09 pm to
quote:

I didn’t mean to offend anyone.

Well then, clearly, you're on the wrong board.

Posted by Skeezer
Member since Apr 2017
2296 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 5:19 pm to
Trumps idiotic tariffs will end up being the pebble that causes the Boulder to free fall down the hill.

Smoot Hawley was deemed to be repeated I guess because Americans on whole have no understanding of economics. It’s not really taught in school.
Posted by Seldom Seen
Member since Feb 2016
40106 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 5:22 pm to
quote:

Lol there it is. Before the new congress is even sworn in



In business you have to always be looking ahead. Just like the economy crashing in late 2007 when it because obvious to everyone Obama was going to win.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118761 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 5:23 pm to
quote:

we certainly need this trade war to end


Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
46058 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 5:25 pm to
FBN had their financial experts commenting that the market dropped because Trump said “I’m the tariff man” or something like that. Then they said investors didn’t trust Trump to get a deal done with China, then they said the 2 and 5 year bond yield curve was flattening, then they said interest rates were a concern, then some big shot from Ameritrade said traders love this trading environment when the VIX is rising, saying it’s when the big money is made, then they said yada, yada, yada, lol!

My guess is institutional investors are wanting a substantial drop in equities so they can swoop in when the mass selling panic commences. A lot of money is sitting on the side waiting for this anticipated event.
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
146714 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 5:27 pm to
If it is Rakim don't narc, PLEASE! he is my and Polly's son.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
46058 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 5:29 pm to
quote:

Trumps idiotic tariffs will end up being the pebble that causes the Boulder to free fall down the hill. Smoot Hawley was deemed to be repeated I guess because Americans on whole have no understanding of economics. It’s not really taught in school.


I don’t like the tariff BS but you’re not going to address the trade imbalance with China by any other method, China was quite happy with how the way things were. China won’t make a deal unless they too feel some discomfort.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118761 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 5:31 pm to
quote:

Smoot Hawley was deemed to be repeated I guess because Americans on whole have no understanding of economics.


Do you realize that tariffs made up almost half of the revenue to the federal treasury during that time? Tariffs currently make up 1.5% of the revenues to the federal treasury.

The point is, total taxes first then we can argue about what is worse, regressive or progressive taxes.

I also find it quite ironic that the same people that are huge advocates of the Fair Tax react negatively at an emotional level against tariffs. Both are regressive taxes. One is a pure consumption tax (Fair Tax) and one is a hybrid consumption tax and trading partner tax when they can't embed those tariffd in the cost of goods.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118761 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 5:35 pm to
Wall Street is panicking because they realize the multinational party of raping Americans is over under Trump. Gone are the days of American companies moving manufacturing to China for cheap labor and selling back to America draining American wealth.
Posted by biscuitsngravy
Tejas, north America
Member since Jan 2011
3000 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 6:07 pm to
quote:

n business you have to always be looking ahead. Just like the economy crashing in late 2007 when it because obvious to everyone Obama was going to win.
Posted by DallasTiger11
Los Angeles
Member since Mar 2004
11809 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 6:40 pm to
quote:

I don’t like the tariff BS but you’re not going to address the trade imbalance with China by any other method, China was quite happy with how the way things were. China won’t make a deal unless they too feel some discomfort.

Trump’s mistake was taking on the whole world at the same time. He should have zeroed in on China and rallied our allies around us against them. Instead he pissed them all off on trade too.
Posted by cahoots
Member since Jan 2009
9134 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 7:11 pm to
quote:

Wall Street is panicking because they realize the multinational party of raping Americans is over under Trump. Gone are the days of American companies moving manufacturing to China for cheap labor and selling back to America draining American wealth.


What do you think is going to happen between the US and China?
Posted by funnystuff
Member since Nov 2012
8330 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 7:16 pm to
This was always going to happen as the market adjusted to the tax cuts.


Your post is like the oracle of delphi warning of a coming storm if the king doesn’t sacrifice his eldest son just before hurricane season. The timing might check out, but it doesn’t mean the causality does.
Posted by funnystuff
Member since Nov 2012
8330 posts
Posted on 12/4/18 at 7:19 pm to


It takes a lot to lower the bar on the PT. Congrats on burying it ten thousand feet under ground lol
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