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Message
Betting Politics on Kalshi
Posted on 11/2/26 at 3:20 pm
Posted on 11/2/26 at 3:20 pm
I've never bet on politics before and don't really bet too much on sports either. But I just went on Kalshi and I'm looking at the odds on some of these senate races. Alaska and Texas are essentially paying out 3:1 odds if the Republican choice wins those races. Rodgers in MI is a 5:1 dog to Al Sayed winning that race.
What are we thinking here? Is anyone else betting this?
What are we thinking here? Is anyone else betting this?
Posted on 11/2/26 at 3:24 pm to mytigger
They are not in a habit of losing... Texas is the only one I would take, the others I fully expect Repubs to lose
Posted on 11/2/26 at 3:25 pm to mytigger
quote:
What are we thinking here? Is anyone else betting this?
Oh everyone says they are, but there has been an alarming lack of proof
Posted on 11/2/26 at 3:28 pm to mytigger
Out of principle I don't "predict" on these markets, but for someone with less scruples, it seems like easy money to bet on the R's in all of the swing states. and maybe throw some on the D's in places like LA, MS, and SC. Even if only a couple hit you can be massively positive.
Posted on 11/2/26 at 3:28 pm to mytigger
quote:
your entry price (the price/implied probability you paid when you bought the contract) is locked in for the specific position you hold. Subsequent market fluctuations do not change the cost you paid or the maximum payout of $1 per winning contract.
If you hold your contract until the event resolves and you win, each contract always pays out $1.01 to $1.00 (specifically $1.00 per winning contract)
As market odds change after you buy, the current market value of your open position will go up and down in your portfolio display. This means your unrealized profit/loss changes live, even though your original purchase price remains the same.
Because Kalshi is an exchange rather than a traditional sportsbook, you do not have to wait for the event to end. If the odds move in your favor, you can sell your contract back to the market at the current price to lock in a profit (or cut losses if they move against you)
Posted on 11/2/26 at 3:31 pm to mytigger
no because im not a degenerate gambler anymore Besides, didnt they say that wacko lady in wisconsin had a 80% chance of winning and she got absolutely stomped?
To put it simply: if i were an influencer and not some guy, and told people that Y was a surefire win over X and betting Y is free money, most of them would bet on Y because what what i tell them is the extent of their knowledge on the matter.
But I know everything else going on behind the scenes, i've done my research. X will most likely win. But since I and my friends have peddled BS, X is now a massive underdog, I will make tons of money even with a moderately sized bet by taking the money from idiots who didn't do their research.
And finally, as pointed out above, Kalshi has a specific mechanism. You dont have to ride your bet out, you can take profits. Thus its very, very easy for people who are good at using it to make money off of people who have no idea how it works and think its just regular sports betting.
Besides, didnt they say that wacko lady in wisconsin had a 80% chance of winning and she got absolutely stomped? To put it simply: if i were an influencer and not some guy, and told people that Y was a surefire win over X and betting Y is free money, most of them would bet on Y because what what i tell them is the extent of their knowledge on the matter.
But I know everything else going on behind the scenes, i've done my research. X will most likely win. But since I and my friends have peddled BS, X is now a massive underdog, I will make tons of money even with a moderately sized bet by taking the money from idiots who didn't do their research.
And finally, as pointed out above, Kalshi has a specific mechanism. You dont have to ride your bet out, you can take profits. Thus its very, very easy for people who are good at using it to make money off of people who have no idea how it works and think its just regular sports betting.
This post was edited on 11/2/26 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 11/2/26 at 3:32 pm to aubie101
quote:
They are not in a habit of losing...
I'm under the impression that Kalshi isn't predicting, but presenting the odds based on the money coming in, assuming they "win" either way.
Posted on 11/2/26 at 3:39 pm to mytigger
Betting markets are the new tool for voter suppression of conservatives. It’s ruining the political process
Posted on 11/2/26 at 3:56 pm to Poboy1911
quote:
make money off of people who have no idea how it works and think its just regular sports betting
You would qualify as a Dim if you fall into this category
Posted on 11/2/26 at 4:57 pm to aubie101
quote:
They are not in a habit of losing
Kalshi is making money either way, this is not Vegas. Please take time to understand how prediction markets work.
Posted on 11/2/26 at 5:12 pm to LSUbest
quote:
the maximum payout of $1 per winning contract.
I'm guessing you're new to this kind of thing. Think of it as a share of stock. At the end of the event, the share, or contract is either worth $1 or 0.00. You buy the contracts at a price in the middle. So if you buy 100 shares at 33 cents per shares, that's a $33 purchase price with the opportunity to be paid $100.
You can also sell your contracts before the end of the event at the current market rate to lock in your gains or cut your losses
This post was edited on 11/2/26 at 5:15 pm
Posted on 11/2/26 at 5:15 pm to mytigger
You guys understand how betting works, right?
Posted on 11/2/26 at 5:36 pm to CubsFanBudMan
quote:
I'm guessing you're new to this kind of thing
I never bought a contract.
That information was from Google.
Posted on 11/2/26 at 6:42 pm to mytigger
Yeah, I made an account today.
Had to put down something in Texas races- on Paxton at .29, then twice the amount on Abbott at .62 as a hedge. I feel very confident about Abbott.
Basically break even if Abbott wins but Paxton loses, more than double my money if they both win.
I think the Paxton race will be much closer than many of the polls indicate, and hope he takes it.. We’ll see.
Had to put down something in Texas races- on Paxton at .29, then twice the amount on Abbott at .62 as a hedge. I feel very confident about Abbott.
Basically break even if Abbott wins but Paxton loses, more than double my money if they both win.
I think the Paxton race will be much closer than many of the polls indicate, and hope he takes it.. We’ll see.
Posted on 11/2/26 at 6:53 pm to aubie101
quote:
aubie101
take everything this flaming liberal says with a grain of salt
Posted on 11/2/26 at 6:59 pm to Rockne
quote:
Had to put down something in Texas races- on Paxton at .29, then twice the amount on Abbott at .62 as a hedge. I feel very confident about Abbott.
Well played.
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