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re: Betting markets are currently pricing in a 95% chance of no change in interest rates
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:32 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:32 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Gentrification is one of the weirdest topics.
It's not just the super liberals bitching about being racist, either. White, well-to-do urbanites often see it as a bad thing b/c it affects the "culture"
I think gentrification is great
The well to do whites bitch about it because they fear it will drive people to their areas. They like keeping it contained, in other words.
Imagine Oak Park being gentrified. It would be great for the mid-city which is dying or dead but where would those people wind up? Probably the college streets by McNeese or something.
0
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:33 am to WongsPalace
quote:We're already being taxed. The last two tax years I've paid $79,054 just in Federal income taxes.
Trump needs to listen to Bannon and tax the millionaires. It would solve every problem.
So why do we still have "problems."
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:33 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Gentrification makes housing values/costs explode.
That's just another progressive platitude that intentionally overlooks any nuance. Gentrification opens up areas to investment that are under-valued. That's exactly what needs to happen if we want to increase housing supply rapidly for younger people.
But they aren't going to invest in a neighborhood where violent crime is the norm. And they can't afford an established neighborhood closer to the city center where crime is low. So they will either piss away more and more of their future net worth in rent or buy in a distant suburb - both of those are bad for this country's financial health.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:35 am to SDVTiger
quote:has nothing to do with politics. The economy is still too strong to drop rates
CME has it at 99% no cut
Everyone knows too late is playing politics
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:37 am to LSURussian
Overspending. Which obviously isn't going to change. Need more revenue.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:37 am to stout
quote:Silly hypo.
What will your reaction be if they cut rates, but the 10YY rises because a cut makes investors anticipate economic stimulation and potential future inflation?
Powell and the Fed are inexplicably working on a "tariffs are inflationary" premise. In my experience, when DC folks are doing something inexplicable, there are usually partisan and/or nefarious motives underlying the action. That is my predisposition with Powell.
The counterfactual to your hypothetical is Powell's actions stunt economic growth. His Fed threw headwinds at Trump45. His Fed is doing the same now.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:38 am to member12
quote:
That's exactly what needs to happen if we want to increase housing supply rapidly for younger people.
Most of the housing supply in a municipally backed gentrification area ends up just being apartments. Lake Charles just had this happen downtown with two new complexes, and it is happening again on Lake Street after they tore down all the low-income houses behind the mall.
If you want true gentrification, the best way is to extend tax credits and support to individuals who will purchase and remodel houses in that area, with the stipulation that they will be living in the house for a period of time.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:38 am to sidewalkside
quote:
has nothing to do with politics. The economy is still too strong to drop rates
Just based on the last few years, I'm sure that if that changes it wouldn't be recognized for about 18 months....then they'll try to cram in a year's worth of incremental changes in a very short period of time.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:39 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The counterfactual to your hypothetical is Powell's actions stunt economic growth. His Fed threw headwinds at Trump45. His Fed is doing the same now.
I didn't deny that Powell may be politically motivated anywhere in my post.
What I posted is a very real possibility, which is directly the opposite of what SDV has been cheering for the past 2-3 years when he cheers for the Fed to cut rates, hence my question.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:41 am to Bard
quote:
You lower rates when the economy starts getting bad. You raise rates or hold them steady when the economy is good.
I understand this is ideal but there is hard reality.
And hard reality is different.
Reality is you lower rates when you have a Democrat as president.
You raise rates or keep them high when you have a republican as president.
I think who is in the white house has a much effect as anything else.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:41 am to Bard
quote:
You lower rates when the economy starts getting bad.
So the economy was getting bad 1 month before the election to the tune of a 50 bips (not just 25) lowering?
Occam's Razor suggests that was Powell being political because there were absolutely no signs that the economy was bad in October 2024 and needed a full 50 jolt.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:47 am to member12
quote:
If we are going to deficit spend - we should do it to build something that will expand and boost our productivity and GDP. Things like bridges, highways, ports, etc. are worthwhile.
You must have loved Obama's nearly $900B stimulus in 2009.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:49 am to stout
quote:
The Feds impact on mortgage rates is greatly overestimated by many.
I've heard you say this a dozen times and somehow convinced yourself this is a set in stone truth.
"It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so." M.Twain
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:56 am to sidewalkside
quote:
has nothing to do with politics. The economy is still too strong to drop rates
Posted on 6/4/25 at 9:24 am to WongsPalace
quote:Do detail that out please. With April 15th taxes just behind us, and June quarterlies coming up quickly, my ears are perked. I just looked up the median HH Fed Income Tax burden. Shocking low by comparison would be an understatement. I'd like to know what my "fair share" should be.
tax the millionaires. It would solve every problem.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 9:27 am to WongsPalace
quote:If you think so (I don't btw), then you are going to have to go after the middle and working classes as is done overseas.
Need more revenue.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:01 am to stout
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:03 am to member12
quote:
I don't know how we can do something about crime.
We build 3x as many prisons as we have now and we use them. Easy.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 11:33 am to lsu480
The feds are still using quantitative tightening and have reduced their balance sheet by close to 2 trillion and the reserve repo facility has also seen a big decline. However bank reserves are still above where the feds targeted even though they have declined (all according to JP Morgan).
Probably means they will keep "tightening" and keep rates the same, knowing that some fashion of the bbb will pass and money supply will once again increase.
The point is, while the msm ooohs and ahhhs over interest rates, the feds have removed close to 4 trillion dollars floating around causing inflation.
Probably means they will keep "tightening" and keep rates the same, knowing that some fashion of the bbb will pass and money supply will once again increase.
The point is, while the msm ooohs and ahhhs over interest rates, the feds have removed close to 4 trillion dollars floating around causing inflation.
Posted on 6/4/25 at 11:36 am to member12
quote:
Right now suburbs are safer bets in many places despite their lack of infrastructure, traffic issues, and affordability problems.
Many of those suburbs are also having major crime problems.
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