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Message

re: August jobs revision from +54Kto -3K

Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:12 am to
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
298305 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:12 am to
Yeah, this isnt "targeted" or reciprocal tariffs. This is a Rull blown trade war.

Posted by wackatimesthree
Member since Oct 2019
10802 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:18 am to
quote:

Nah, young people can't find jobs because they're not qualified for the jobs available, and qualified for jobs not hiring. The jobs are out there.


First of all, job openings are the lowest they've been at in almost a year:
Entrepreneur

There's some of this mis-matching of qualifications, but I think there's a more systemic problem going on with hiring that aggravates the situation.

First of all, hiring has moved to being an entirely online driven exercise, and it's not a good thing. It's too easy to post job openings online and one result of that is that IMO companies have become a bit ridiculous about how specific their applicant qualifications requirements have become, and the fact that it is an employer's market (there are more people trying to get a job than there are jobs) in most industries with jobs that pay more than $15-$20 an hour exacerbates this trend.

I do know first hand that it's hard to hire someone for $16 an hour. Yes, at that level it's hard to hire. At the level of jobs that pay $50,000-$60,000 a year and up, companies want someone with exactly the right degree, exactly a certain amount of experience in exactly what they are hiring for, and the reason why is that companies do not want to train people anymore. They want to be able to hire someone that they do not have to invest time and money and effort in.

It didn't used to be that way. Not in my experience, anyway. I think the erosion of employee loyalty has led to that result. Companies are tired of investing in employees who never stop job searching and leave the hot second they can. And the constant searching is another consequence of hiring (or at least job posting and initial application) being moved almost entirely online.

Another consequence is the fact that a quite significant percentage of jobs posted online are for positions that do not exist. Some say it's as high as 38%. Studies have been done on this it has become so prevalent (see the link above). Companies will post fake job openings to give the illusion that they are expanding and growing when they aren't, or to collect labor market data. And this trend has increased over time.

So those job postings that are at a 10 month low right now are even lower than you think. Those of you who say, "The jobs are out there," the data doesn't support your perception. Including the unemployment level right now, which—its has been pointed out here recently—is lower than what is considered "full employment."

Posted by SoDakHawk
South Dakota
Member since Jun 2014
10166 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:20 am to
Low paying jobs at $15-$20 per hour are available. Actual professional career positions are hard to come by. The job market is bleak and about 200,000+ federal employees that took the deferred resignation just came off the government books and entered the unemployment numbers today. Maybe not the best idea for Trump to layoff hundreds of thousands more now. Unemployment numbers are about to get really, really ugly.
Posted by BTROleMisser
Murica'
Member since Nov 2017
10051 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:25 am to
Yeah... Think of how great we'd be doing if Kamala had been elected.
Posted by BTROleMisser
Murica'
Member since Nov 2017
10051 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:26 am to
quote:


quote:
We are fricked


WE SHOULD HAVE VOTED FOR KAMALA!!!


Posted by BTROleMisser
Murica'
Member since Nov 2017
10051 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:27 am to
Did those 100,000 fed workers resign yet? That should help.
Posted by BTROleMisser
Murica'
Member since Nov 2017
10051 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:27 am to
quote:

Says leisure and hospitality lost the most jobs.


Definitely is.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
298305 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:28 am to
quote:


Yeah... Think of how great we'd be doing if Kamala had been elected.



This is your defense of Trump. Comparing her to Kamala...
Posted by SoDakHawk
South Dakota
Member since Jun 2014
10166 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:29 am to
quote:

Did those 100,000 fed workers resign yet? That should help.


Came off the books yesterday. On the job market today.
Posted by trinidadtiger
Member since Jun 2017
18916 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:30 am to
quote:

How do ADP’s numbers compare to BLS numbers?


Good question oh wise one. BLS actually does a survey to supplement the data, last one I saw "foreign born" workers were losing jobs, over a million, at the same rate "Amueericans" were gaining them. Which would explain no job gains and the sky screamers.

But if there is no employment, why on earth would wages be rising at the highest rate in a decade? Hmm could it be illegals are being replaced with tax paying Amueericans? And these same taxpayers are no longer subsidizing illegals with govt handouts, hmmmm.

That means the worker makes more, the govt get more taxes, and the govt spends less on illegals, sounds like a frickin win to me.
Posted by Figgy
CenCal
Member since May 2020
9803 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:36 am to
The fact that we keep extending the deadline with China also shows me that we don’t have as much leverage as is believed and the expectation that China will bend the knee quickly to maintain market share was unrealistic. We aren’t entirely replaceable but we won’t ever entirely decouple from one another so that threat doesn’t matter.

Early on I warned that the World is a bigger market than the US and that China would be wise to make a push there.. and they have:


quote:

China's exports to the United States fell sharply in August from a year earlier amid concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff measures. Data released by Chinese customs authorities on Monday showed the value of US-bound shipments dropped 33.1 percent in dollar terms. The rate of decline widened from 21.6 percent in July. The value of imports from the US also fell 16 percent year on year. The two countries in mid-May significantly slashed additional tariffs they had imposed on each other. But remaining levies are believed to have impacted the figures in August. The two countries are working to reach a deal before a November deadline. But concerns persist that US-China trade friction could intensify again, depending on how the negotiations play out. As for China's overall trade, exports grew 4.4 percent in August from a year earlier, due to increased shipments to Southeast Asia and Europe. Imports rose 1.3 percent.


NHK
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
298305 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:38 am to
quote:

Early on I warned that the World is a bigger market than the US and that China would be wise to make a push there.. and they have:


Correct. In fact, China became the worlds leader in EV sales and they dont need to sell here in the USA for that to happen.

Posted by TigerAxeOK
Where I lay my head is home.
Member since Dec 2016
35657 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:54 am to
It's as if all these deportations are creating job openings that need filled maybe?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135805 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:59 am to
quote:

Low paying jobs at $15-$20 per hour are available. Actual professional career positions are hard to come by. The job market is bleak and about 200,000+ federal employees that took the deferred resignation just came off the government books and entered the unemployment numbers today. Maybe not the best idea for Trump to layoff hundreds of thousands more now. Unemployment numbers are about to get really, really ugly.
We are in a "No hire, No Fire" economy. That's fine if you have a job. It sucks if you don't. NHNF explains the elevated unemployment rate for GenZ.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135805 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:01 am to
quote:

August jobs revision from +54Kto -3K

I was told this only happened under Biden
You were told this only happened under Biden related to government data (BLS). This is not a BLS number.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
170790 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:01 am to
quote:

Yeah, this isnt "targeted" or reciprocal tariffs. This is a Rull blown trade war.

And we appear to be losing it. Bigly
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
298305 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:02 am to
quote:


And we appear to be losing it. Bigly


Yes, because there are no objective goals. Just whatever Trump feels on a certain day
Posted by Zgeo
Baja Oklahoma
Member since Jul 2021
3227 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:04 am to
Reduce interest rates now.

Powell is stupid…..
Posted by BuckI
Grove City, Ohio
Member since Oct 2020
7116 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:08 am to
quote:


Oh no. Gloom and doom. Might as well pull the pin and see what is next.
It is for Republicans come election time. If the economy continues to tank and prices on groceries and other necessities soar, the Democrats will return to power.
Posted by LSUTANGERINE
Baton Rouge and Northshore LA
Member since Sep 2006
38031 posts
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:16 am to
This is not good news on Day 254.
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