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Jeb Busch Lite
Mississippi St. Fan
Member since Apr 2016
1131 posts

At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
Michigan

Wisconsin

Pennsylvania

This is assuming Biden can hang on to Minnesota and Nevada, I know Trump has a good chance here but let’s just say Biden holds on. On the flip slide, let’s also assume trump hangs on to Arizona and North Carolina (safer assumption IMO). Trump has to win just one of the 3 above to get to 270. He won all 3 in 2016

Biden just said he’d end fracking and transition from the oil industry. Goodbye Pennsylvania


4Ghost
Tulane Fan
Member since Sep 2016
6599 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
2 of 3, but still worried about fraud. Dems will Dem.


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410
anc
Member since Nov 2012
14278 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
If Trump can pick off Nevada or New Hampshire, it puts a lot of pressure on Biden. Trump wins if he would get one of MI, WI or PA, and Biden would have to sweep.



Tiger on the Rag
LSU Fan
Cattle Gap Egypt
Member since Jan 2018
4503 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
He will win all 3 again and Arizona. I believe he will win NC but it will be close. I also think Trump makes it very close on the national vote as well.


imjustafatkid
UAB Fan
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
25503 posts
 Online 

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
The only way Trump loses Pennsylvania is due to fraud. Thanks to Roberts, that is a possible outcome.
This post was edited on 10/23 at 9:18 am


LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
43440 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
quote:

I also think Trump makes it very close on the national vote as well.


The increase in Latino/AA support should vault him ahead in popular vote, so those crying about that won't have it to point to.


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110
Mr Perfect
Lamar Fan
Member since Mar 2010
17836 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
wrong. florida all that matter


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62
armtackledawg
Georgia Fan
Member since Aug 2017
5652 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
I am very worried about Arizona


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09
Clashmore Mike
Notre Dame Fan
Member since Oct 2014
453 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
Florida is still in play (as always).

This is why both Trump (Pensacola and The Villages) and Pence (Lakeland and Tallahassee) will be in Florida during the next few days. Obama will be in Miami on Saturday.


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110
ROPO
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2016
2644 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
quote:

(safer assumption IMO).


I hope you're right but your characterizations of your assumptions are objectively wrong. Trump is projected to lose both states you assume he will win and all three states you think he has a shot at.

And 1/3 of all votes have already been cast.

Pennsylvania
Biden +5
Biden +5 Biden +8
Even Precious Trafalgar group Biden +2.5

Michigan
Biden +12
Biden +7
Biden +10
Precious Trafalgar only has Trump up 0.5% (well within margin of error)

Wisconsin
Biden +5
Biden +8
Biden +8
Precious Trafalgar Has Biden +1.3

North Carolina
Trump +1
Biden +3
Biden +3
Biden +3
Biden +4

Arizona
Biden +1
Biden +3
Biden +6
Biden +3




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Tigertracks
LSU Fan
Houma La.
Member since Nov 2007
758 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
Trump wins narrowly with FL, AZ, NC, ME2, NE2, and Wisconsin. Should he lose one or both of the two small districts, then he needs to win either Michigan or Pennsylvania instead of Wisconsin.

This assumes Biden wins NV NH MN, Trump wins TX IN IA OH.

The only poll that counts is the one on November 3.
This post was edited on 10/23 at 9:38 am


LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
43440 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
quote:

Wisconsin
Biden +5
Biden +8
Biden +8
Precious Trafalgar Has Biden +1.3


Hillary's RCP average entering the election in 2016 was +6.5 and Trump won the state by +0.7

Traditional polling is inherently flawed and only those who follow new (improved) methodologies should be trusted.


the808bass
SE Missouri Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
77996 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
Good analysis.


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ROPO
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2016
2644 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
quote:

Traditional polling is inherently flawed and only those who follow new (improved) methodologies should be trusted.


Do you really believe that these polls, who got it wrong in 2016 but got it right in 2018, are reverting back to 2106 methodology? Of course not. But, hey, it's all we've got to hope for a miracle.

Trump lost this election via his tweets, his dog whistles and what he did or didn't due in April.


MrLSU
LSU Fan
Whistler/New Orleans/Lake Como/Alys
Member since Jan 2004
17188 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
quote:

At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states


At this point it might come to California, Hawaii, and New York.


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11
gthog61
Georgia Tech Fan
Irving, TX
Member since Nov 2009
65945 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
quote:

I hope you're right but your characterizations of your assumptions are objectively wrong. Trump is projected to lose both states you assume he will win and all three states you think he has a shot at.






You just posted in the other thread about posting shite that projects your biases


LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
43440 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
quote:

but got it right in 2018


There was a Presidential Election in 2018?



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120
Jake88
George Mason Fan
LSU/Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2005
47879 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
Why is Trump rallying in NH this weekend?


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oogabooga68
Member since Nov 2018
11780 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
quote:

are reverting back to 2106 methodology?


Yes.

The people conducting these polls are suicide bombers who will do anything to get rid of OMB.

What have these liars done that would make you give them the benefit of the doubt?

They weren't wrong in 2016 by accident, it was an intentional, coordianated effort to get Hildabitch elected....they didn't suddenly become unbiased.


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82
Jake88
George Mason Fan
LSU/Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2005
47879 posts

re: At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
quote:

but got it right in 2018
They didn't. They did not pick up on the historic gains in the Senate. Ask governor Gilum and Senators Nelson and Mccaskill.


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