- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
are Ohio + Iowa best indicators that polls are ignoring a Trump groundswell?
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:25 pm
A FEW FACTS:
Per RealClearPolitics.com, the last six polls (Sept/Oct) polls in Iowa show: Tie, Biden+2, Biden+5, Trump+3, Biden+3, Tie
RCP IOWA Average: Trump +0.5
the last four polls (Sept/Oct) polls in Ohio show: Biden+1, Biden+1, Trump+4, Tie
RCP OHIO Average: Biden +1.2
More facts:
- both states voted TWICE for Obama
- Iowa had the largest swing of any state from Dem in 2012 to R in 2016 (5.8% win for Obama to 9.4% for Trump)
- Ohio had the second-largest swing from Dem in '12 to R in '16 (3.0% win for Obama to 8.1% for Trump)
- that is a four-year, 15.2 percentage point swing to Trump/Republicans for Iowa
- and a four-year, 11.1 percentage point swing to Trump/Republicans for Ohio
OPINION/QUESTION:
I live in Ohio, and travel the state often.. I highly, HIGHLY doubt that Trump has lost enough support here to represent a 9.3 point swing back to Democrat.
Why should I believe Iowa, in four years, has eroded the unprecedent swing towards Trump into an 8.9 point turn towards Biden?
The 'Shy Trump Voter' - if he/she shows up - will surely give President Trump four more years.
Per RealClearPolitics.com, the last six polls (Sept/Oct) polls in Iowa show: Tie, Biden+2, Biden+5, Trump+3, Biden+3, Tie
RCP IOWA Average: Trump +0.5
the last four polls (Sept/Oct) polls in Ohio show: Biden+1, Biden+1, Trump+4, Tie
RCP OHIO Average: Biden +1.2
More facts:
- both states voted TWICE for Obama
- Iowa had the largest swing of any state from Dem in 2012 to R in 2016 (5.8% win for Obama to 9.4% for Trump)
- Ohio had the second-largest swing from Dem in '12 to R in '16 (3.0% win for Obama to 8.1% for Trump)
- that is a four-year, 15.2 percentage point swing to Trump/Republicans for Iowa
- and a four-year, 11.1 percentage point swing to Trump/Republicans for Ohio
OPINION/QUESTION:
I live in Ohio, and travel the state often.. I highly, HIGHLY doubt that Trump has lost enough support here to represent a 9.3 point swing back to Democrat.
Why should I believe Iowa, in four years, has eroded the unprecedent swing towards Trump into an 8.9 point turn towards Biden?
The 'Shy Trump Voter' - if he/she shows up - will surely give President Trump four more years.
7
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:41 pm to JPinLondon
Ohio margin is important because it provides a glimpse into what might be happening in PA and MI.
Trump will win Ohio but by what margin.
If he wins Ohio by 3-5 it likely means he's going to lose in PA, MI and WI.
If we see him winning Ohio 7-9 pts it's a safe bet those other states will be very very competitive.
Early call for Ohio would be great news.
Trump will win Ohio but by what margin.
If he wins Ohio by 3-5 it likely means he's going to lose in PA, MI and WI.
If we see him winning Ohio 7-9 pts it's a safe bet those other states will be very very competitive.
Early call for Ohio would be great news.
This post was edited on 10/19/20 at 1:43 pm
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:59 pm to Tiger985
Help me out please.
I get confused with all the polls. I need a simplified approach.
If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, does he win the election?
I get confused with all the polls. I need a simplified approach.
If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, does he win the election?
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:01 pm to Rohan Gravy
quote:
If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, does he win the election?
Yes, Florida is 190 electoral votes and Ohio is 81.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:03 pm to JPinLondon
quote:
Why should I believe Iowa, in four years, has eroded the unprecedent swing towards Trump into an 8.9 point turn towards Biden?
Here, let me help you.
LINK
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:08 pm to Rohan Gravy
quote:
If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, does he win the election?
If he takes NC, Iowa & Arizona, he will need to win Michigan or Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin & Minnesota.
This post was edited on 10/19/20 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:11 pm to JPinLondon
If you're looking for early east coast indicators on election night then keep an eye on NC and NH. FL as well but it's got that CST time zone in the panhandle.
If NC and FL are quick calls and NH drags on it could be a good night for Trump because the polls were overly pessimistic.
If NH is a quick call and NC and FL drag on then it might not be a good night for Trump because the polls were not as far off as hoped for.
None of this takes into account the potential for fraud.
If NC and FL are quick calls and NH drags on it could be a good night for Trump because the polls were overly pessimistic.
If NH is a quick call and NC and FL drag on then it might not be a good night for Trump because the polls were not as far off as hoped for.
None of this takes into account the potential for fraud.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:11 pm to JPinLondon
The NYTimes and others are pulling suburban voters out of the woodwork who claim they have misgivings in previously supporting TRUMP and are now for Hiden. Have that many suburban voters swung towards a low energy, corrupt candidate? Doubtful. They had that with Crooked and look how far the Democrats got. Plus, TRUMP will pick up a good amount of Latino support which will make up for any suburban losses.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:13 pm to Rohan Gravy
No on the right track though
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:13 pm to JPinLondon
Why are you people constantly chirping about the RCP Average. It's a crock of shite. An average of Media Polls structured purely for Democrat propaganda. The Des Moines Register is one of the biggest left wing rags in the Country. Their polling is structured to produce an outcome prejudicial to Democrats.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:18 pm to JPinLondon
After seeing thousands of people in each recent truck parade (but specifically convincing were the ones on Rodeo Drive and in Miami-Dade), and seeing tens of thousands line up for each & every recent Trump rally, a quarter of whom identified themselves as registered Democrats...
..I don't need any more evidence that polls are ignoring a Trump groundswell, and a November landslide.
..I don't need any more evidence that polls are ignoring a Trump groundswell, and a November landslide.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:19 pm to JPinLondon
quote:
Yes, Florida is 190 electoral votes and Ohio is 81.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:50 pm to LSUFreek
quote:
..I don't need any more evidence that polls are ignoring a Trump groundswell, and a November landslide.
I'll take that!
Posted on 10/19/20 at 3:01 pm to JPinLondon
quote:
I live in Ohio, and travel the state often.. I highly, HIGHLY doubt that Trump has lost enough support here to represent a 9.3 point swing back to Democrat
I lived there for 15 years (moved last year). I still have plenty of friends and family there. I don't think Ohio is even a swing state this year. I think Trump wins it easily.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 8:31 pm to VADawg
quote:if yard signs mean anything, Trump is 15:1 in the rural areas and 3:1 in small and medium-sized towns/cities.
I lived there for 15 years (moved last year). I still have plenty of friends and family there. I don't think Ohio is even a swing state this year. I think Trump wins it easily.
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News