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Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:00 am to Enadious
quote:
We are 36 trillion in debt. Are we likely to exist as we know us in the next 10-15 years?
China is far worse in absolute dollars and even worse than that as a percentage of GDP. Their demography won't allow for a consumption-led recovery and the world, particularly the E.U. and U.S., is in the process of weaning themselves off of Chinese goods, so there can be no export-led recovery either. They're cooked.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:01 am to Enadious
quote:
Are we likely to exist as we know us in the next 10-15 years?
Are you saying this in absolute terms or relationally?
We still project to be the world's only superpower in 10-15 years, without a close 2nd option.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:04 am to RollTide4Ever
quote:
They manufacture stuff and building trade routes such as a port in peru. Buying gold as well.
They manufacture shitty stuff and the world is starting to buy less and less of their products. Building a port in Peru doesn't make them a superpower, particularly when we could deny them the use of it if we were so inclined.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:08 am to Tantal
Also, as their economic power decreases, so does their ability to project. The Belt and Road Initiative only works for China if they have the power to force these countries to honor the agreement. Billions are going to be wasted once they lose this force
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:11 am to John Barron
Andrei Martyanov is former Soviet Navy who lives in the state of Washington. He has been a very interesting follow since the start of the Ukraine conflict. He's a little hard to understand at times, but he has been constantly making fun of American leadership and the military and how it's in decline, although I think he does respect the Navy. He basically says it's a bunch of elites who suck each other off with their international studies diplomas from degree mills, but don't understand how anything in the real world works -- and why our military fails all the time. He would agree with you that engineers, mathematicians, and physicists, etc. should be running things. Boeing is a great example. This is his website.
LINK
LINK
quote:
Warfare is a geopolitical tool of the first order; only wars of scale can measure the real strength of nations. For decades American claims of hegemony, and by extension that of the West, have been based on what has now proved to be a carefully constructed mythology of economic and military supremacy. This is Andrei Martyanov’s fourth book addressing this issue, now as it concerns the war in Ukraine. In America’s Final War, he lays out in detail the underpinning causes and extent of its self-deception.
Washington’s eight years of preparing Ukraine and its armed forces for war with Russia was a mistake of historic proportions, due to its misperception of American military power based on its 1991 Gulf War victory against a minor military player. Washington believed its own propaganda about crippling sanctions on Russia, about the viability of its Ukrainian proxy army, and the economic and military weakness of Russia, spelling doom for the American empire and its “rules-based order”.
Martyanov lays out Washington’s utter incompetence and shocking military amateurism. But then, he claims, the US doesn’t do strategy; it does business plans. Through 2022-2023, Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO) exposed US and NATO forces as legacy armies stuck in the 1990s, still viewing the world from that vantage point. The massive destruction of the West’s high-cost weaponry ensued, annulling their vaunted superiority. Western armaments, from anti-tank Javelins to APC Bradleys to air defense complexes such as the Patriot PAC3 or NASAMS, performed dismally and proved unready for what has become the largest military conflict in Europe since WWII. By 2023 the Kiev regime could no longer exist without the West’s support, both financial and in war materiel. By 2024 Russia will have not just exhausted Ukraine, but also demilitarized NATO as a whole, exposing the industrial and military impotence of the US and its European vassals.
The finance and tech-based economy is not a real economy; expeditionary warfare and doctrine is not real war. The global balance of power has shifted to Eurasia. Western Europe has become a collection of weak and fast deindustrializing economies which will increasingly become irrelevant against the background of the explosive economic, technologic, scientific and military development in Eurasia.
The world has noticed what has been exposed, and because of that, life as we knew it is no more. The rule of the West of the last half-millennium is over.
This post was edited on 11/21/24 at 8:16 am
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:17 am to Tantal
quote:
Their demography won't allow for a consumption-led recovery
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:17 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
The Belt and Road Initiative only works for China if they have the power to force these countries to honor the agreement.
They won't. They're too geographically isolated and can't project power past the first island chain or into the Indian Ocean. On land they're surrounded by powerful enemies (Russia and India). They could theoretically push into the 'Stans, but that doesn't really do much for them.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:17 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
Through 2022-2023, Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO) exposed US and NATO forces as legacy armies stuck in the 1990s, still viewing the world from that vantage point.
This is bad.
We do not have a military that projects with our ground forces primarily.
When we fight, like legitimately fight, we use our navy and airpower. Neither have been used in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Russia, on the other hand, almost exclusively relies on ground forces. If they're facing an opponent who can't project from the air/sea, they are likely to win.
It would be like a modern NBA team going to play a 90s team and not being able to shoot 3s....or a modern CFB team forced to play the Nebraska I-option offense.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:17 am to John Barron
Lawyers tend to have one of the 3 lowest scores on psychopathy tests which should tell you everything you need to know about our government.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:18 am to Tantal
quote:
They could theoretically push into the 'Stans, but that doesn't really do much for them.
Well also Russia would have something to say about that
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:18 am to Indefatigable
quote:
BREAKING: Lawyers write laws
Privates fight wars, but that's not who decides what war we're going to fight.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:20 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
We do not have a military that projects with our ground forces primarily.
When we fight, like legitimately fight, we use our navy and airpower.
Maybe stick to law.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:21 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
China projects to be the world's only superpower in 10-15 years, without a close 2nd option.
Fixed it for you. We are already bankrupt, both fiscally and morally.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:22 am to John Barron
quote:
Fixed it for you.
You did not.
quote:
We are already bankrupt, both fiscally and morally.
China is worse in both respects.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:23 am to Flats
quote:
Maybe stick to law.
What did I say that was wrong?
I did not think it was controversial to state our military was based on projecting air and seapower when we engage in full scale conflicts.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:23 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
He would agree with you that engineers, mathematicians, and physicists, etc. should be running things. Boeing is a great example. This is his website.
Nice. Thanks for the link
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:26 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I did not think it was controversial to state our military was based on projecting air and seapower when we engage in full scale conflicts.
It's not based only on those. If you don't have the threat for boots on the ground you've taken away a critical piece of leverage.
I'm not a loggie, but in a week we could probably put enough ground forces in Ukraine to completely push Russia out. Putin knows that and it impacts his decision making.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:29 am to John Barron
So it’s not the Jews? Japan just said it was.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 8:30 am to Flats
quote:
It's not based only on those
I didn't say only
I said primarily
quote:
but in a week we could probably put enough ground forces in Ukraine to completely push Russia out.
I imagine this would come after a slew of planes starting with F secured the airspace and permitted bombers to frick up Russian positions, supply lines, etc.
I'm not much of a Navy guy so I can't explain what they would do exactly but I'm sure someone else could. The geography of the conflict kind of makes that difficult as well. But usually we use them as well to secure the areas where our ground troops will go into after they clear it out.
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