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538: The GOP had a very real chance of controlling the WH for 28 years straight: 1980-2008
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:35 pm
heard this on a 538 election podcast a couple of days ago and found it interesting alternative history.
If HW bush was a slightly better politician and ross perot was not on ballot in 1992.
1992: despite economic recession earlier in year, economy was growing again. voters still liked Bush's leadership re kuwait. He wins reelection by a narrowish margin against a talented bill clinton.
1996: Economy healthy again, and the gop nominee rides a wave of voter satisfaction with peace and prosperity to a win
2000: Like in real life, would have been an extremely close race, 50/50 probably.
2004: GOP leadership after 9/11 and majority public support for iraq war would have given gop another win.
2008: GOP loses in historic landslide. voter fatigue with 28 years of gop rule, and the horrible economic conditions. Dem nominee wins 35+ states.
This could have been a very real scenario.
If HW bush was a slightly better politician and ross perot was not on ballot in 1992.
1992: despite economic recession earlier in year, economy was growing again. voters still liked Bush's leadership re kuwait. He wins reelection by a narrowish margin against a talented bill clinton.
1996: Economy healthy again, and the gop nominee rides a wave of voter satisfaction with peace and prosperity to a win
2000: Like in real life, would have been an extremely close race, 50/50 probably.
2004: GOP leadership after 9/11 and majority public support for iraq war would have given gop another win.
2008: GOP loses in historic landslide. voter fatigue with 28 years of gop rule, and the horrible economic conditions. Dem nominee wins 35+ states.
This could have been a very real scenario.
This post was edited on 7/9/20 at 1:37 pm
10
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:37 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
The uniparty never lost the office over that time period.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:38 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
2004: GOP leadership after 9/11 and majority public support for iraq war would have given gop another win.
9/11 probably doesn't happen in this timeline if the GOP had the presidency from 93-01.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:40 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
You’re assuming a lot.
For example, in the late 90s, there’s a low probability that a GOP POTUS refuses to take the kill shot on Osama bin Laden, given the chance (as Bill Clinton was).
No Osama, no 9/11. Different world.
There’s probably no 2008 housing bubble burst either, with a GOP POTUS in the late 90s.
For example, in the late 90s, there’s a low probability that a GOP POTUS refuses to take the kill shot on Osama bin Laden, given the chance (as Bill Clinton was).
No Osama, no 9/11. Different world.
There’s probably no 2008 housing bubble burst either, with a GOP POTUS in the late 90s.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:42 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Neither Bush would really count as Republicans
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:42 pm to notsince98
quote:
The uniparty never lost the office over that time period.
Yep. HW and W were both globalists. Little different from Dems.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:43 pm to Godfather1
quote:
You’re assuming a lot.
Exactly. Who the hell cares?
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:43 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
538: The GOP had a very real chance of controlling the WH for 28 years straight: 1980-2008
no. This is precisely the kind of crap that makes 538 uncredible. Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:44 pm to BuckyCheese
Here is another interesting alternative timeline to speculate upon
Ronald reagan defeats gerald ford in 1976 for the gop nomination.
How does he do against carter in 1976, as opposed to real life in 1980?
Ronald reagan defeats gerald ford in 1976 for the gop nomination.
How does he do against carter in 1976, as opposed to real life in 1980?
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:45 pm to OchoDedos
quote:
Exactly. Who the hell cares?
It’s all Butterfly Effect stuff.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:50 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
That's why Clinton was so hated. The plan was for republican rule for decades. He got in their way. And IMO, his impeachment is directly responsible for the division today. We never recovered.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:56 pm to Godfather1
quote:you clearly don't understand how the world works. must be blissful.
No Osama, no 9/11. Different world.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 1:58 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I recall hearing HW basically quit running in the 92 election
Posted on 7/9/20 at 2:02 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
The GOP has only won the popular vote in a presidential election 1 time since 1992 (2004). Like it or not, we are being outnumbered.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 2:04 pm to Man4others
When Clinton did strike Al Qaeda in Afghanistan with Infinite Reach he got the "wag the dog" accusal from some Republicans because the Monica story had just broken.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 2:08 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
While likely, politically and in a vacuum, but if you look back in history. There is something called a political pendulum. Only in extreme cases will it stay on one side for too many years.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 2:31 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:I REALLY like Reagan, but in this scenario he loses to Carter.
Here is another interesting alternative timeline to speculate upon
Ronald reagan defeats gerald ford in 1976 for the gop nomination.
How does he do against carter in 1976, as opposed to real life in 1980?
The American people wanted to change the roster after Vietnam. In 1976, the Dem candidate beats anyone the GOP sends up.
Hell, Carter only lost in 1980 due to the Iran hostage situation.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 2:50 pm to AggieHank86
quote:
Hell, Carter only lost in 1980 due to the Iran hostage situation.
You clearly do not know any American History from '76 to '80.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 2:55 pm to AggieHank86
quote:
Hell, Carter only lost in 1980 due to the Iran hostage situation.
Posted on 7/9/20 at 2:57 pm to arcalades
quote:
you clearly don't understand how the world works. must be blissful.
Oh God. One of THOSE.
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