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re: 538 projecting Biden to win!!!
Posted on 7/12/24 at 1:48 pm to Midget Death Squad
Posted on 7/12/24 at 1:48 pm to Midget Death Squad
I am not making any prediction, but if people believe Biden will win, now is the time to put down bets. You can pull in some cash.
0
Posted on 7/12/24 at 1:48 pm to Midget Death Squad
538 takes all the polls where trump is leading (state and national) and then "adds" the 538 "correction factor"
quote:
Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
Full forecast
Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on both polls and fundamentals and accounting for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Posted on 7/12/24 at 1:48 pm to HubbaBubba
Tempted to bet the house on Biden. If he is the candidate I have no doubt they will find a way to steal it.
Posted on 7/12/24 at 1:50 pm to kcpizzle
I might put a few grand down now. 
Posted on 7/12/24 at 1:52 pm to Midget Death Squad
Prepare for it, seriously. It won't surprise me 1 bit and everyone will be so confused.
Posted on 7/12/24 at 1:59 pm to Midget Death Squad
538 uses the same stuff that Lichtman uses… incumbency advantagement, economic outlook, etc… They also pick & choose what polls to use & then “weight” them.
538 is a scam. Only delusional leftist like 538
538 is a scam. Only delusional leftist like 538
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:01 pm to cajuntiger1010
Wouldn’t be surprised - A ton of people would rather pick a dead Biden than a love Trump - his VP pick will determine if he wins
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:10 pm to cajuntiger1010
They might be doing it just for the clicks. It's honestly not a bad strategy.
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:12 pm to Midget Death Squad
Complacency kills
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:13 pm to SCLibertarian
quote:
We deserve all bad things
frick that. I've lived my life straight and narrow. frick if im going to let the crazies bring me down with the ship.
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:17 pm to Midget Death Squad
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:17 pm to SirWinston
100% a business move. Deranged leftists want to believe Biden is winning. So of course they will suscribe to a site that caters to their narrative
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:19 pm to Midget Death Squad
And yet if you go to Project 538, and apply the polls from each individual state onto the 270 To Win map, you come up with Trump winning with 319 EVs
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:21 pm to Midget Death Squad
Great news!! Give Joey some Sugar!!
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:30 pm to Midget Death Squad
Nate plastic
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:47 pm to Midget Death Squad
Would be the saddest thing of all time to lose to a corpse
Posted on 7/12/24 at 2:48 pm to Midget Death Squad
No one's above the law not even trump
Posted on 7/12/24 at 3:14 pm to da prophet
quote:
It’s becoming apparent Biden will be the nominee.
Agreed. I think they played their hand to force Biden to drop out, and it isn't working. Dr Jill is not letting him do that. Now they have to cook the polls and set the narrative to try and keep it close enough to steal.
Posted on 7/12/24 at 3:16 pm to SirWinston
quote:
Nate Silver doesn't run 538 anymore
This for real? Is he not a part of it at all, or does he just not run it? I'm fully expecting him to start pushing the Biden to win narrative before long
Posted on 7/12/24 at 3:19 pm to Midget Death Squad
quote:
DO NOT GIVE UP
You stole this saying from that awesome speech by Jimmy V that he made at the Espy’s before he passed away.
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