re: Zillow is now forecasting home values to drop in every large US metro over the next year

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To compare violent crime rates in Nashville, Tennessee, and San Francisco, California, I’ll rely on the most recent and reliable data available from the provided references, focusing on violent crime statistics (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) per 100,000 residents. The data reflects trends up to 2023, with some projections for 2025 where noted. Since crime data can vary by source and reporting methodology, I’ll use consistent metrics and note any limitations.

Nashville, TN Violent Crime Rates

• 2021 Data (NeighborhoodScout): Violent crime rate of 1,149 per 100,000 residents (1 in 87 chance of being a victim). This includes murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Nashville’s murder rate was 14.8 per 100,000 in 2021, higher than the national average of 8.2.
• 2023 Data (Various Sources): The violent crime rate was approximately 1,102 per 100,000 residents, with 7,491 reported violent crimes. Tennessee’s overall violent crime rate was 628 per 100,000, but Nashville’s rate is significantly higher, ranking among the highest in the U.S. for cities of its size.
• Trends: Violent crime in Nashville decreased by 3% from 2022 to 2023, but specific offenses like gun violence remain a concern. Homicides dropped 7% in 2023 compared to 2022. In 2022, Nashville reported 108 homicides (Davidson County).
• 2025 Projections (CrimeGrade.org): Violent crime rate estimated at 566.7 per 100,000 residents (5.667 per 1,000), though this is a projection and may not reflect actual data. Nashville ranks in the 15th percentile for safety (safer than 15% of U.S. cities).

San Francisco, CA Violent Crime Rates

• 2021 Data (Spolin Law): Violent crime rate of 670 per 100,000 residents, with 5,933 reported violent crimes (population ~886,007). This included 40 murders, 324 rapes, 3,055 robberies, and 2,514 aggravated assaults.
• 2023 Data (PPIC): California’s statewide violent crime rate was 503 per 100,000 residents, but San Francisco’s rate is higher. The San Francisco Bay Area had a violent crime rate of ~600–670 per 100,000 (based on earlier data and regional trends). Specific 2023 city-level data is incomplete, but violent crime rose slightly in the Bay Area.
• Trends: San Francisco saw a decline in violent crime from 7,064 incidents in 2013 to 4,887 in 2021. In 2022, the city reported 56 homicides, lower than Nashville’s 108. Robbery and aggravated assault increased slightly in 2023 (by 3.8% and 1.7% statewide), while homicides and rapes decreased.
• Data Limitations: 2023 data for San Francisco is less granular due to incomplete reporting by some agencies (e.g., Oakland’s data issues). The San Francisco Police Department’s Crime Dashboard provides incident-based data but lacks a 2023 rate summary.

Comparison
1. Violent Crime Rates:
• Nashville: ~1,102–1,149 per 100,000 (2021–2023). Consistently higher than the national average (~370 per 100,000) and Tennessee’s state average (628 per 100,000).

• San Francisco: ~670 per 100,000 (2021), likely ~600–700 in 2023 based on regional trends. Higher than California’s state average (503 per 100,000) but lower than Nashville’s rate.

• Conclusion: Nashville’s violent crime rate is roughly 1.5–2 times higher than San Francisco’s, depending on the year and source.

2. Homicide Rates:
• Nashville: 14.8 per 100,000 in 2021; 108 homicides in 2022 (population ~709,786).
• San Francisco: ~6.3 per 100,000 in 2022 (56 homicides, population ~886,007).
• Conclusion: Nashville’s homicide rate is significantly higher than San Francisco’s.

3. Crime Trends:
• Nashville: Slight decline in violent crime (-3% from 2022–2023), with homicides down 7%. However, gun violence and aggravated assault remain elevated.
• San Francisco: Mixed trends; overall violent crime stable or slightly up in 2023, with robbery and assault rising but homicides and rapes declining. Historically lower violent crime than Nashville.
• Conclusion: Nashville shows a slight improvement, but its baseline violent crime rate remains much higher than San Francisco’s.

4. Context and Perception:
• Nashville: High violent crime is concentrated in specific neighborhoods (e.g., near Lafayette Street, parts of East Nashville). The city’s sprawl and lower police-to-resident ratio (2.6 per 1,000 vs. national average) may contribute.
• San Francisco: Crime is often perceived as high due to visible property crime (e.g., larceny, burglary), but violent crime is lower than in many large cities. Understaffed police and prosecutorial policies may influence enforcement.
• Conclusion: Nashville’s violent crime is more severe, while San Francisco’s issues are skewed toward property crime.
Limitations
• Data Gaps: San Francisco’s 2023 city-specific violent crime rate is not fully reported in the sources, requiring reliance on 2021 data and regional trends. Nashville’s data is more complete but varies by source (e.g., FBI vs. local reports).
• Reporting Differences: Nashville’s data includes Davidson County, inflating rates compared to city-only metrics. San Francisco’s data is city-specific but may underreport due to agency inconsistencies.
• Projections: 2025 estimates (e.g., CrimeGrade.org for Nashville) are speculative and may not align with actual trends.


Final Answer

Nashville has a significantly higher violent crime rate (~1,102–1,149 per 100,000 residents) than San Francisco (~600–700 per 100,000 residents) based on 2021–2023 data. Nashville’s homicide rate (14.8 per 100,000 in 2021) is over twice San Francisco’s (~6.3 per 100,000 in 2022). While Nashville shows a slight decline in violent crime, its rates remain elevated compared to San Francisco, where violent crime is lower but property crime is a bigger issue. For precise 2023–2025 comparisons, more complete San Francisco data would be needed.

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Housing stock should go up as deportations of illegal aliens go up. More hosing availability equals lower cost for Americans

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