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re: Zeta - The cleanup begins

Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:46 pm to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:46 pm to
quote:

I see the thread has now hit the delirious stage.

Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:48 pm to
quote:


What are your estimates for wind speed in New Orleans


It is so track dependent and well, I don't do forecasts on here. Reasonably I think the range is 45-60 mph, assuming the NHC path and intensity is dead on accurate. Gusts pushing 60-75 mph. Farther west of the path and a stronger storm, and you start pushing the winds toward hurricane force and gusts higher.

The NWS forecast for my location in uptown is for winds of 60 mph with gusts near 75. It will be fast in and fast out. You'll get the high winds for like an hour with an hour ramp up and ramp down on each side.
Posted by TheRouxGuru
Member since Nov 2019
14209 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:50 pm to
Thanks. I’m actually staying on the Westbank and the only thing I’m concerned about is the wind. Doesn’t really flood too much where I’m at
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:52 pm to
I'll be posting through the night, so any questions feel free to ask.
Posted by tigafan4life
Member since Dec 2006
50975 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:53 pm to
NOLA bout to back to Phase twooooooooooo after this storm wrecks them.
Posted by Legion of Doom
Old Metry
Member since Jan 2018
5726 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:54 pm to
Duke, I’m essential at work. My wife and kids age 10 and 7 will be riding this out in Old Metairie. Some of those models coming in at 960. Freaked me the hell out. Is that a real possibility that this thing will come in that strong? I wanted them to leave but my wife refuses
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131445 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:55 pm to
The only reason to leave is if you cant survive without power or there is a big water oak set to fall on your house
Posted by Cajunese
Louisiana
Member since Jun 2005
7186 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:56 pm to
quote:

I'll be posting through the night, so any questions feel free to ask.



What are the odds that this thing can intensify into a Cat 2? Right now, time is our friend if this storm keeps moving quicker. The last thing we need is for the entire SE Louisiana region to be completely blindsided by this thing.
Posted by Notasnitch
Member since Dec 2017
315 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:56 pm to
quote:

posting through the night, so any questions feel free to ask.

Oh how I dont miss the 3 hour feedings...
But now my little shits got attitudes and talk back so I kind of miss it
Posted by AmosMosesAndTwins
Lake Charles
Member since Apr 2010
19013 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:57 pm to
quote:

What are the odds that this thing can intensify into a Cat 2? Right now, time is our friend if this storm keeps moving quicker. The last thing we need is for the entire SE Louisiana region to be completely blindsided by this thing.


Oh good lord.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:01 pm to
quote:

Is that a real possibility that this thing will come in that strong?


It's possible, we've got two pretty good models on intensity showing it but the HWRF for example that came in at like 962 has the storm with a pressure of 982 mb right now and a fully closed off eyewall. Which is too strong and not quite accurate on the structure. So that run is probably too strong.

It has a chance to ramp up very quickly in the next 12ish hours but I think the 960s pushing Cat 3 are overcooked at this point because the storm would be stronger now.

Now these 970s and a Cat 2, that seems like a reasonable possibility.

quote:

I wanted them to leave but my wife refuses


Hey, is your house pretty sturdy? Do you have a forest of water oaks around you or some outsized risk of trees falling on it? Assuming you're not worried about trees and you're not in a trailer in Old Metairie ( ) they'll probably be fine. Tell him to hunker down in the interior of the house for the worst part. Have some flashlights.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:02 pm to
quote:

I'll be posting through the night, so any questions feel free to ask.

is the Jay Grimes sleeve scale just a lie???????
Posted by Legion of Doom
Old Metry
Member since Jan 2018
5726 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:04 pm to
Thanks. My house has been renovated to the studs recently but I do have trailers a couple of blocks away??
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 11:05 pm
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
110872 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:04 pm to
quote:


Storm2k is wishcasting so bad for this thing to blow up.



Those fricking people.
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15724 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:04 pm to
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:07 pm to
I fully expect to wake up tomorrow and see this track shift west more towards Houma.

I decided to take my grandmother to Hammond like last storm and stay at a friend since he has a house generator. Not sure that was a good idea if it hits somewhere like Houma. Hope it doesn't carve up on that path when it heads NE. Obviously depends on how far west it gets.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
78302 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:10 pm to
quote:

The NWS forecast for my location in uptown is for winds of 60 mph with gusts near 75


What part of uptown?

I'm in the nice part so I only expect courteous 30mph winds.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14258 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:10 pm to
Posted by DoctorTechnical
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2009
3024 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:11 pm to
Brother Duke,

1) Just checking to see if you and your family are OK.

2) Tonight, I happened to capture this WeatherUnderground wind prediction for Chelsea, AL (zip 35043, south suburb of Birmingham). Other than being cool to see the remnant eye predicted to pass over our office, what's your take? Computer glitch? Amazingly accurate prediction?

Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
78302 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:15 pm to
That looks like shite
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