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re: Will New Orleans become more affordable as Airbnb’s crash?

Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:34 am to
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481222 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:34 am to
quote:

right. and it will get worse, no question. nola will be hurting for awhile

let me be clear. i'm assuming a major, worldwide recession (possibly depression). i'm not singling out Nola

quote:

but things also can get really good, really fast too.

what industry will be able to prop up Nola? especially their mega RE bubble? very few countries will be unaffected and will have money for tourism
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481222 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:35 am to
quote:

if you havent saved



FIRST MISTAKE

quote:

than you are just an idiot and deserve to go under

i agree but that's how bubbles pop. the ripple affects everyone
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
131809 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:35 am to
quote:

Detroit is the future of NOLA - go look at housing/rental prices there. That's your answer.


Detroit was dependent on the auto industry and that went away almost completely, hence what happened to them.

NOLA is dependent on tourism and that will come back, despite what everyone thinks right now.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41888 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:37 am to
quote:

what industry will be able to prop up Nola? especially their mega RE bubble? very few countries will be unaffected and will have money for tourism


are there any numbers to compare domestic and international tourism for nola?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481222 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:39 am to
quote:

NOLA is dependent on tourism and that will come back

i'm not saying Nola will never see tourism again, but it's possibly going to take years. that's going to have a major effect on Airbnb, which is an economic bubble but also part of a much larger RE bubble that will ultimately pop if the Airbnb ripples are large enough

you combine a RE crash with no tourism in a major city of an oil economy, and you're not going to have a good time

yes, it can come back, but it could be a long, hard 5+ years
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481222 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:40 am to
quote:

are there any numbers to compare domestic and international tourism for nola?



Americans won't have money either. we are still part of the world
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
111647 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:40 am to
quote:

NOLA is dependent on tourism and that will come back, despite what everyone thinks right now.


It will be interesting to see the long term effects of this on the convention circuit.

It may bounce back, but I wouldn't be surpirsed to see a rather large scale contraction of it either. That would be a pretty big blow to N.O.
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:41 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 2/3/21 at 12:48 am
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481222 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:43 am to
oh yeah if you have one, or hell, even a couple, you should be able to withstand it. but the problem is, like with Wall Street, the leverage. people who are WAY over-invested (and likely invested at a premium cost b/c they invested on the incline) can only make money if the bull market keeps on
Posted by big_tuna
Member since Jun 2019
600 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:43 am to
Ehh, i dont know how easy it will be to walk away from the leases. specifically if there was clauses in said leases that prevented him from renting property that was already rented.

I'd imagine he's going to lose his arse on this one.

Either way, not a good outlook for airbnb in the foreseeable future.
Posted by glassman
Next to the beer taps at Finn's
Member since Oct 2008
118614 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:43 am to
quote:

Detroit is the future of NOLA


Nope. Does Detroit have one of the largest ports in the world?
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41888 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:44 am to
geez man, idk think we are going to dip into a long-arse recession/depression bc of this - you could be correct, but i think the recovery can potentially be very quick. guess we will see.

i do believe by august is important towards timing as october is scheduled to be a very huge month for the city
Posted by weadjust
Member since Aug 2012
15818 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:44 am to
quote:

Well, paid mine off in 2014 and its paid for itself about 100x over since then.



So a 100K house would make $10 million in 6 years or 1.6 million a year
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481222 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:45 am to
dude i'm pretty sure football isn't going to happen next year. i just don't see how we can make that work while we (1) still try to flatten the curve and (2) have the 2nd wave threat looming in the winter
Posted by GreatLakesTiger24
Member since May 2012
61600 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:47 am to
I can’t see football happening. We’re so fricked.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41888 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:48 am to
yea, we need football as a society to keep the sanity, without it, it will get ugly
Posted by GreatLakesTiger24
Member since May 2012
61600 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:50 am to
I won’t even pretend to be above the fray. I need football, even if it’s just on tv.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481222 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:52 am to
i didn't follow football much at all in 2017-18 b/c i had other interests to focus on, but even that's not available to me now so yeah

but football was a non-Nola example (since so many people think i am just targeting Nola). it's the "nuclear" example

but that means, no festivals, conventions, or hell, even family get togethers for Thanksgiving/Christmas are in danger
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:56 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 2/3/21 at 12:46 am
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481222 posts
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:57 am to
quote:

70% of the people we deal with are legacy types and they come once a year. Germany, Spain, Italy, Australia, the Northeast of the US and the West coast.

think about what you just said
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