re: Will "Learn to Weld" become the new "Learn to Code" with AI coming for the coding jobs?

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think that’s what you want to believe

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It's a fundamental misunderstanding of how AI works. Common theme in these threads, no offense to you.

In that scenario you laid out, AI was effective because of the prompts it was fed. People who already were intimately familiar with the code and had an idea of what the issue was, what was the expected behavior, etc. gave all that information to AI. I assure you there was a shite ton of back and forth and trial and error involved.

People in these threads act like AI would detect some random issue in the code, find it, fix it, without input and prompting. It is only as good as the information being fed to it. In the same scenario, the team of coders could have told AI the code was fine and working as desired and it would have persisted the issue forever.

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People in these threads act like AI would detect some random issue in the code, find it, fix it, without input and prompting. It is only as good as the information being fed to it. In the same scenario, the team of coders could have told AI the code was fine and working as desired and it would have persisted the issue forever.

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Right - this is what I always tell folks that are concerned by AI taking their jobs. It's actually NOT some all knowing, all powerful magical oracle that can just do whatever you ask it. It still cannot think like a human brain despite all the bullshite that AI companies keep trying to sell the general public.

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I think the massive push towards blue collar jobs is a mistake. I don’t know if some of you have been paying attention but we have flood the country with manual labor over the past 10 years.

Also, if every young kid goes to blue collar work it will saturate the market just like has happened with coding. Programmers are a dime a dozen.

With all that negativity, I don’t know what the answer is, because AI is inevitably coming for a lot of white collar jobs.

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The push to trades is the same, age old idea of the elite that education is wasted on all but the elite. People like Mike Rowe, the ring leader, have never worked a trade job a week in their life...certainly have not done so when the weather wasn't perfect. Mike Rowe was a fricking opera singer for fricks sake...anyone who listens to an opera singer extolling the virtues of trade school while vilifying education is a dumb arse. Technology is replacing trade jobs faster than white collar jobs and has been for about 100 years. There is not a trade in the US that requires more skill and knowledge today than it did 20 years ago and the skill and knowledge required 20 years ago wasn't comparable to what was required 20 years prior to that. None. As the requirement for skill goes down the number of qualified candidates goes up.

I think the terror associated with AI is blown out of proportion. Technology has replaced workers at a rapid clip from the first time one of our ancestors stood on their hind legs and said "damn, the view is great from up here....my back hurts". Technology creates different jobs, almost always better jobs....its often painful for the individual for some period of time but most have managed to overcome over the centuries, its doubtful this won't hold true with AI. I may be wrong, we all may be doomed, but typewriter repairmen did not starve to death, they moved on....and so will the majority of us.....

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Where will all the coders go?

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To program the robot welders?

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I think his point is that robots are primarily used in shop spaces with production runs. Not in the field. Not saying it can't or won't happen, but a small mom and pop business won't be able to afford the computer driven fabrication machinery. And customers wanting something built on their land won't be able to afford the businesses that owns the AI driven welding operation at least in the near term. There will be a long term need for a good majority of welders. IMO.

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Laser welding is quickly becoming very cost effective and almost anyone can become proficient using one in a matter of days instead of months and years. The data is also pretty quickly showing that the end results are better penetration and better welds. Startup costs are still somewhat prohibitive but Lincoln and Miller are both making machines that are under $50k that were around $70k just a few years ago....in about the time it takes someone to become proficient, not employable but proficient in mig welding those machines will be under $40k and by the time they become employable those machines will be under $30k. They also offer the ability to weld just about any material with one machine. At $50k now they aren't out of line with start up costs considering the quality of welds and the range of materials that can be welded with one machine. They havent replaced traditional welding machines yet but they are doing so at an alarming rate of speed.

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I am not a coder obviously and you’ve forgotten more about it then I know, but I do listen to the AI experts and futurists and believe I know exactly where this is headed; mass depopulation, universal income, sophisticated game theory as business strategy , survival of the fittest. A three decade process of reorganizing society on a fundamental level.

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The main risk is that AI doing away with junior level roles is that you are ending the pipeline of developing senior level talent. If no one can work a junior level or entry level job, how can they gain the experience to be a senior level or experienced level employee down the line?

Bean counters are so obsessed with using AI to meet the next quarter's profit targets and thats all they care about, they don't care about the long term implications.

I am a senior level employee in the tech world but I don't get here without first cutting my teeth as a junior working entry level jobs. 10-15 years from now companies will be looking to hire experienced workers and won't be able to because they shut out an entire generation from gaining the skills needed to check off the experience boxes. Then they will just say that Americans are lazy and use the fact that there aren't enough experienced Americans (by their own doing) to say we need to import infinity Indians to fill the skill gaps

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I am not a coder obviously and you’ve forgotten more about it then I know, but I do listen to the AI experts and futurists and believe I know exactly where this is headed; mass depopulation, universal income, sophisticated game theory as business strategy , survival of the fittest. A three decade process of reorganizing society on a fundamental level.

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We'll be entering this post-work world just about the time I retire

I am not defending welding. But the cost of replacing a welder with a robot is likely higher than replacing a team of coders with a software license

Or any other number of skilled labor fields that involves physical work. AI isn't going to put up drywall or fix a transmission.

Robots will take over the blue collar jobs next.