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re: Why you should hope life isn't found in space: The Fermi Paradox / Great Filter
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:58 pm to Scruffy
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:58 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Scruffy could argue with some of what you said in there, but he won't. Lets just enjoy this moment where we actually agree on something.
I didn't say I was right that is just what I tend to believe. My opinion is basically worthless on this subject just as everyone else's is because we simply don't know. 
0
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:58 pm to DanTiger
quote:
also tend to believe that life came to earth from a meteorite and that that is likely how all life is spread throughout the universe.
I have never understood this theory.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:58 pm to DanTiger
quote:
For once we agree. I believe that the universe is teeming with life but that life ends before any intelligent life can travel to other galaxies or other solar systems. We cannot move at the speed of light and, I believe, before we ever will some catastrophic event will kill our species just as it is likely to do on other planets. Space is a very dangerous place and our species hasn't existed for even the blink of an eye in relation to the time our universe has existed. The only way I could see the inhabitants of one planet contacting another is if they happened to exist in the same solar system. I also tend to believe that life came to earth from a meteorite and that that is likely how all life is spread throughout the universe.
That's a mighty pessimistic outlook on the cosmos and life in general. In mine and Jeff Goldblum's opinion, unlike your's, is that life finds a way. It is incredibly resilient and finds a way to adapt to any environment it is introduced to. Humanity shouldn't be able to logically survive outside of the equator, but we've done it just fine by forming structures and society that allow us to survive. I expect the same from space.
Plus do you really think that every species in the universe wouldn't have access to a wormhole or a generation ship, even if physically exceeding the speed of light is impossible? Surely some aliens have made it to another solar system. frick, Voyager will in 70,000 years, so why not another species?
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:59 pm to bmy
quote:Disagree with all three.
Depending on where The Great Filter occurs, we’re left with three possible realities: We’re rare, we’re first, or we’re fricked.
There is also the idea that we are treating the entire universe as a singular entity, rather than a grouping of a near infinite number of smaller entities, which themselves are made up of a near infinite number of even smaller entities, etc.
The entire thing is pessimistic, narcissistic, and, frankly, moronic.
Even if we have already met our "great filter," guess what, our species will still end, meaning that there is a wall, not a filter, that everything will eventually hit.
It is an inevitable nature of existence. Everything with a beginning has an end.
And that makes the entire theory of a filter existing useless.
This post was edited on 11/13/14 at 10:02 pm
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:04 pm to Scruffy
quote:
That suggests that there’s a potentially-habitable Earth-like planet orbiting at least 1% of the total stars in the universe—a total of 100 billion billion Earth-like planets.
So there are 100 Earth-like planets for every grain of sand in the world. Think about that next time you’re on the beach.
Moving back to just our galaxy, and doing the same math on the lowest estimate for stars in the Milky Way (100 billion), we’d estimate that there are 1 billion Earth-like planets and 100,000 intelligent civilizations in our galaxy.[1]
Let's say some number of these civilizations have a couple billion year head start on us, and just in our galaxy. Would that be enough time to explore the Milky Way? Seems like it would. Where is the evidence? Surely in all those years somebody could have bounced through our system and left some type of marker?
I'm just discussing the theory which I find interesting.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:04 pm to Scruffy
quote:
It is an inevitable nature of existence. Everything with a beginning has an end.
The universe continues to grow. Perhaps it will never end and will grow infinitely. I think that our opinion is skewed because our existence and the existence of our planet and even solar system is finite.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:09 pm to Rust Cohle
quote:There must be some schools out there teaching this as the method to making words plural.
galaxy's
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:13 pm to weagle99
quote:They use dial up modems. Very slow.
quote: Moving back to just our galaxy, and doing the same math on the lowest estimate for stars in the Milky Way (100 billion), we’d estimate that there are 1 billion Earth-like planets and 100,000 intelligent civilizations in our galaxy.[1]
SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) is an organization dedicated to listening for signals from other intelligent life. If we’re right that there are 100,000 or more intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, and even a fraction of them are sending out radio waves or laser beams or other modes of attempting to contact others, shouldn’t SETI’s satellite array pick up all kinds of signals?
But it hasn’t. Not one. Ever.
Where is everybody?
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:13 pm to weagle99
quote:The potential number of changes physically, mentally, technologically, etc., make our attempts to form an understanding of a civilization that has existed for that long completely futile.
Let's say some number of these civilizations have a couple billion year head start on us
That is like Scruffy asking someone how God thinks. It is an idea that, at our current level of understanding, is impossible to grasp.
quote:Probably.
Would that be enough time to explore the Milky Way? Seems like it would.
Lets set aside two ideas here though.
1. Considering my previous statement on the numerous alterations anything would undergo over that time, it is highly unlikely that a civilization would last for such an extended period. We throw out 1 billion as if it is nothing in regards to numbers, but we humans only began evolving towards our current state 200,000+ years ago.
The scales are astronomically different. In our short timespan, we have evolved at such an insane rate, who knows what our society will be likely in 100,000 years, let alone 1 billion.
They may have visited the milky way 1 billion years ago for all we know.
2. You are under the assumption that a civilization that has existed for that period of time occurred in our galaxy. Maybe it has, maybe it hasn't. There are far too many assumptions being made with that theory.
quote:Yes, it is possible, but how long ago did they pass through if it happened?
Where is the evidence? Surely in all those years somebody could have bounced through our system and left some type of marker?
Would time not have a factor on the survivability of this "marker" if it was left 200,000 or 1 million or 500 million years ago?
This post was edited on 11/13/14 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:13 pm to arcalades
quote:
There must be some schools out there teaching this as the method to making words plural.
I hope not. Many here, like me, simply type quickly on a phone and spelling mistakes come with the territory
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:15 pm to DanTiger
quote:Perhaps.
The universe continues to grow. Perhaps it will never end and will grow infinitely.
But if everything within the universe ends, does the existence of the universe itself even matter?
Consider the universe as existence itself. If you have an infinite existence of nothingness, is it really existence?
This post was edited on 11/13/14 at 10:17 pm
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:20 pm to DollaChoppa
Yes we know you are
quote:
retarded
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:23 pm to weagle99
Not read it all yet, but who's to say there aren't multiple Great Filters? We can't even yet mimic abiogenesis in the lab or quite know exactly how it occurred. How can we begin to speculate about alien life and its probabilities? Just because a planet is in the Goldilocks zone and has a sun-like star... how close does that really get us to life? Even if it has water? We don't know the answer to those questions. The conservative calculations may be extremely high for all we know.
I think one of our problems is one of comparison, or lack thereof. We don't know how hard life is for random matter to create because we have nothing to compare ourselves to. We are relative to nothing. That makes the question impossible to answer.
We also don't know how life behaves beyond Earth life. Earth life appears to progress, or change, infinitely. Prokaryotes, Eukaryotes, Plants, Dinosaurs, Humans. Life may not involve similar genetic material on other planets and may be more constant, like an ever expanding bubble.
Actually, the more you think about it the more you want to come to deistic conclusion.
Edit: And don't you have to include the probability of intelligent life on Earth in those calculations? Out of all of the different species that have occurred on Earth and the huge variance of life, what percentage of that life (us) is of higher intelligence?
I think one of our problems is one of comparison, or lack thereof. We don't know how hard life is for random matter to create because we have nothing to compare ourselves to. We are relative to nothing. That makes the question impossible to answer.
We also don't know how life behaves beyond Earth life. Earth life appears to progress, or change, infinitely. Prokaryotes, Eukaryotes, Plants, Dinosaurs, Humans. Life may not involve similar genetic material on other planets and may be more constant, like an ever expanding bubble.
Actually, the more you think about it the more you want to come to deistic conclusion.
Edit: And don't you have to include the probability of intelligent life on Earth in those calculations? Out of all of the different species that have occurred on Earth and the huge variance of life, what percentage of that life (us) is of higher intelligence?
This post was edited on 11/13/14 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:24 pm to Scruffy
All good points. 
Which points to something consistently happening to end those societies. Star expansion, comet, who knows.
The numbers imply there could be 100,000 intelligent civilizations in the MW alone (but, there could be none as you say). For argument, none of them can survive for an extended period? Let's just say just 1 society out of 100,000 is a few million years ahead of us: That is plenty of time for them to colonize / travel to every part of the Milky Way including our system (if you believe the numbers).
quote:
it is highly unlikely that a civilization would last for such an extended period.
Which points to something consistently happening to end those societies. Star expansion, comet, who knows.
The numbers imply there could be 100,000 intelligent civilizations in the MW alone (but, there could be none as you say). For argument, none of them can survive for an extended period? Let's just say just 1 society out of 100,000 is a few million years ahead of us: That is plenty of time for them to colonize / travel to every part of the Milky Way including our system (if you believe the numbers).
This post was edited on 11/13/14 at 10:34 pm
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:25 pm to Bmath
quote:How would said life have survived flying through space on a rock? No food or oxygen. How would that life have survived entry into the earth's atmosphere? if it beat that trillion to one odds, how would it have survived crashing to earth? the odds of life coming into contact with Earth are no better than a gazillion to one. It's absurd far more than any number could calculate.
tend to believe that life came to earth from a meteorite and that that is likely how all life is spread throughout the universe.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:25 pm to weagle99
Still reading. frick, this is interesting.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:25 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Galaxy's
Once we master the English language (and we are going backwards here folks), then, and only then, can we master our universe...
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:26 pm to LSUTigersVCURams
quote:
There could be intelligent life beaming shite we can't pick up.
But are they beaming blue alien girl on girl action? Congress needs to fund the search quickly.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:28 pm to weagle99
quote:
Continuing to speculate, if 1% of intelligent life survives long enough to become a potentially galaxy-colonizing Type III Civilization, our calculations above suggest that there should be at least 1,000 Type III Civilizations in our galaxy alone—and given the power of such a civilization, their presence would likely be pretty noticeable. And yet, we see nothing, hear nothing, and we’re visited by no one.
So where is everybody?
The Prime Directive clearly states that contact is forbidden with any primitive planet that is not capable of faster than light travel..duh.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 10:36 pm to weagle99
quote:Our galaxy is 100,000-200,000 light years across. Anyone traveling through the galaxy has to move around it since you are unable to travel through the center. That inflates the time.
Again, looking at the numbers there could be 100,000 intelligent civilizations in the MW alone. None of them can survive for an extended period? Let's just say just 1 society out of 100,000 is a few million years ahead of us: That is plenty of time for them to colonize / travel to every part of the Milky Way including our system (if you believe the numbers).
Not to mention traveling throughout the entire galaxy would take such an exorbitant amount of time that calculating it is far beyond Scruffy's abilities.
There are simply far too many variables impacting anyone's ability to claim that there is or isn't intelligent life in the galaxy besides us.
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