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Why is the weather forecast suddenly so bad
Posted on 4/25/22 at 12:23 am
Posted on 4/25/22 at 12:23 am
The last few years the weather forecast, particularly offshore has been dismal. I know they are poorly funded and in serious need of software updates etc. but you would think with all the advancements in computer power and technology the forecast would be getting better. Instead it’s the exact opposite, most of serious fisherman I know have all gone to private forecast.
What the hell is going on.? Is it just outdated equipment, programs or are the models having trouble with new environment (global warming, whatever )
What the hell is going on.? Is it just outdated equipment, programs or are the models having trouble with new environment (global warming, whatever )
10
Posted on 4/25/22 at 12:25 am to TutHillTiger
I think the fear of liability has taken over
We are scared of everything now
We are scared of everything now
Posted on 4/25/22 at 12:30 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
The last few years the weather forecast, particularly offshore has been dismal.
Very subtle, “I work offshore”, brag.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 12:31 am to TutHillTiger
Do you have any data to show it's really worse, or do we maybe just expect more?
Posted on 4/25/22 at 12:32 am to DrSteveBrule
As a trial lawyer don’t get that as being responsible but i do understand the problems being a government employee.
But predicting 1-2 foot seas they are actually 3-5 or worse for two years is ridiculous
But predicting 1-2 foot seas they are actually 3-5 or worse for two years is ridiculous
Posted on 4/25/22 at 12:38 am to Breauxsif
Posted on 4/25/22 at 12:42 am to TutHillTiger
It’s ever since they let them start moving the cone.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 6:54 am to TutHillTiger
Old school Analog forecasters are better than computer model forecaster reporters. The later just reports what the models say. The former actually compares weather patterns similar over many decades.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 11:36 pm to CitizenK
Yes I agree but you can’t tell anyone that anymore. Just like some people are better at deer hunting, building things, fishing etc and some people like Nash Roberts, (undefeated against all computer problems for hurricane predictions ) are just better at weather prediction.
I am a fisherman not an offshore worker (did some rig work as a teen though to the jackal who brought that up. Ask anyone who is charter boat captain, or works offshore about weather forecast last few years.
I know that the EU and a lot of big private companies believed that there were serious errors in NWS forecasting programs in the 80s but of course NOAA did nothing about it, so the European wrote their own programs while business entity like chevron, Shell, Litton etc all put money into a private service, maybe this is a result of that, not sure but they suck now
I am a fisherman not an offshore worker (did some rig work as a teen though to the jackal who brought that up. Ask anyone who is charter boat captain, or works offshore about weather forecast last few years.
I know that the EU and a lot of big private companies believed that there were serious errors in NWS forecasting programs in the 80s but of course NOAA did nothing about it, so the European wrote their own programs while business entity like chevron, Shell, Litton etc all put money into a private service, maybe this is a result of that, not sure but they suck now
Posted on 4/25/22 at 11:50 pm to TutHillTiger
Covid
Posted on 4/25/22 at 11:54 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
most of serious fisherman I know have all gone to private forecast.
Just curious, could you give a couple of examples of the private forecast/meteorology outfits they are using?
Posted on 4/26/22 at 2:20 am to TutHillTiger
Honestly? 5G cell communication.
It’s literally been talked about for the past few years.
It’s super high frequency, nearly microwave. The 24Ghz signal is very close to the 23.8 GHz signal that weather satélites use to gauge water vapor present in air.
Something like 80-90% of weather data fed into models is based on that, and 5G introduces a lot of background noise that decreases resolution and accuracy.
It’s literally been talked about for the past few years.
It’s super high frequency, nearly microwave. The 24Ghz signal is very close to the 23.8 GHz signal that weather satélites use to gauge water vapor present in air.
Something like 80-90% of weather data fed into models is based on that, and 5G introduces a lot of background noise that decreases resolution and accuracy.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 2:29 am to TutHillTiger
From my limited knowledge, it is my understanding that offshore weather reports are severely limited because of the lack of data collection. Besides some buoys, rigs, and ships, there isnt anything to collect the date needed to predict weather like we have on land.
On land, data is collected nonstop pretty much everywhere across the country. A weather system could go 100 miles on land here and have thousands of points of data collected. That same system could move 100 miles over the ocean and not one piece of data would be collected.
Iirc, this was explained in a class I had years ago by a guy that worked at NOAA
On land, data is collected nonstop pretty much everywhere across the country. A weather system could go 100 miles on land here and have thousands of points of data collected. That same system could move 100 miles over the ocean and not one piece of data would be collected.
Iirc, this was explained in a class I had years ago by a guy that worked at NOAA
Posted on 4/26/22 at 4:15 am to TutHillTiger
I was saying the other day that the old forecasters like Nash Roberts and Shingleton used their brains and experience... They used computers but more so used logical thinking... The new guys like "DR" Josh Eachis use fricked up computer models and have no ability to use rational thought or gut level experience...... A problem with a lot of things in modern times. They are wrong WAY more than they are right.. Even in very dangerous situations, and it is getting very old.
My family talks all the time about how you cannot trust these guys, and how we wish we could be this wrong at our jobs and get away with it.
My family talks all the time about how you cannot trust these guys, and how we wish we could be this wrong at our jobs and get away with it.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 4:22 am to Tigahs24Seven
Nash Roberts has left the building. (remember the ends of Elvis concerts with the same reverence.)
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