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re: What would have prevented the amount of Flood Disaster loss of life?
Posted on 7/11/25 at 12:17 pm to AGGIES
Posted on 7/11/25 at 12:17 pm to AGGIES
Once in a 40 yr period flood.
No one could have seen this coming.
Two protocols:
1) Stop the second guessing.
2) Declare it a flood zone and do not allow people to rebuild there.
No one could have seen this coming.
Two protocols:
1) Stop the second guessing.
2) Declare it a flood zone and do not allow people to rebuild there.
0
Posted on 7/11/25 at 12:19 pm to John Casey
quote:
The river rose 26 feet in 45 minutes in the early-morning hours. How long did the flood wall take to move down river? At what point would the sirens have gone off and would they have provided significantly more time to get to safety?
This is the Watch/Warning timeline overlayed on the river gauge at Hunt, TX (so not exactly at the location of the camps, it is downstream of that area). It does give an idea of the warning timeframes you would have been looking at.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 12:22 pm to LegendInMyMind
thanks for posting that. If that Flash Flood Emergency gets issued earlier, i think we may be talking a significantly lower number of casualties. At that point, all hell is breaking loose.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 12:23 pm to Mr Sausage
quote:
thanks for posting that. If that Flash Flood Emergency gets issued earlier, i think we may be talking a significantly lower number of casualties. At that point, all hell is breaking loose.
It is relative to your location. If you're in a flood plain and waiting on a FF Emergency to be issued, you've already lost.
This post was edited on 7/11/25 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 7/11/25 at 12:26 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Everything changes when you put children, other people's children
I was thinking about how much of a nervous wreck I would be if I was responsible for hundreds of children for a week.
Flood, tornados, snakes, weirdos, etc. No way.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 12:36 pm to AGGIES
Hindsight is always 20/20. Sometimes bad stuff happens and people die. Since the beginning of the existence of people. It's very sad that all these people died. Yes, things could have been handled differently. Hopefully things will change concerning warnings etc.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 12:47 pm to AGGIES
quote:someone on night patrol monitoring river level during a flash flood watch...buoys that would sound alarms when they raise above a certain heights
What would have prevented the amount of Flood Disaster loss of life?
Posted on 7/11/25 at 1:23 pm to KamaCausey_LSU
quote:
Not an expert, but 12 inches of rain in a 6 hour period, seems like it would be a 100+ year event.
I mean there are different ways to measure this. But the flooding event is not a 100+ year for the area. Last I saw number for the level early in the week this was maybe the 3rd or 4th highest levels for the river in the last barely over 100 years. Pretty sure just 1987 was worse. At some point how do you calculate the odds to say it’s 100+ or 500 year event. Do you history of the levels or just the expected rain fall?
Then take into account urban development and such over the years it should not even take a Noah type rainfall to cause this occurrence. At some point it starts to be we need to apply some sense. There is more than rainfall data that says this is not a 100+ year event.
This post was edited on 7/11/25 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 7/11/25 at 1:45 pm to nealnan8
quote:
Due to the loss of 10 lives from the flodding in 1987 from the same river, they should have been better prepared for this
They did prepare, and had a system working. Then the company running the system quit and (this sounds like the big telescope in outer space) the replacement parts were outdated and there was apparently a lot of discussion of what the next generation should be. The co-owner of the camp who died with the campers was involved in getting the first generation made and installed.
The second generation didn't happen.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 2:39 pm to LegendInMyMind
Yes I gave since gotten one last week. This tragedy instilled a little more fear in me
Posted on 7/11/25 at 3:16 pm to AGGIES
Not having looked at the flood plain maps, this seems someone missed the hydrology and flood elevations in a flash flood event.
It's one thing if a homeowner moved to a flood plain area knowing it's in a flood plain and it floods- that's on them.
Its another item entirely when you put large groups of children in an area that can see double digit flash floods and it becomes a mass life safety issue.
It's one thing if a homeowner moved to a flood plain area knowing it's in a flood plain and it floods- that's on them.
Its another item entirely when you put large groups of children in an area that can see double digit flash floods and it becomes a mass life safety issue.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 3:30 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Not having looked at the flood plain maps, this seems someone missed the hydrology and flood elevations in a flash flood event.
That is not the case.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 3:34 pm to AGGIES
Only one thing, sirens up and down the river
Posted on 7/11/25 at 3:42 pm to NoMercy
quote:
I wonder if areas like Texas have so much influx of transplants that you get so much of this type of knowledge and experience lost. Even the elected officials end up not being around from a prolonged family of experience so despite these type of issues really not being all that uncommon, it starts to become ignorant to the population due to population turnover and lack of experience of the area.
I think in a lot of places it just came up to fast too leave. These were near Hunt where it was some of the worst flooding. I have seen several stories of families who owned vacation homes there that had been in their families for 40+ years. They knew how far uphill and away from the river they were. They'd seen lots of flooding but NEVER anything like this. Both these families lost people. They didn't know it was that high till they someone at their place woke up at night and found water seeping in. At that point, They started trying to get people together to leave and before they could, the water was either sweeping away their home or had broken out windows/doors and was sweeping away everything in their home, including the people. I believe the word unprecedented truly applies. I see lots of references to the 1987 deaths, but that bus was on the road. Usually in all our flood prone areas, we think we are better off in a building than on the road, especially at night.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 3:53 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
I have and I spelled it out to my state representative and state senator. a. Stacked water level monitors in slotted steel sleeves attached permanently to the lee side of bridge pilings. b. Electric connection to computer monitoring of the amount and location of water rise. c. A "tornado siren" warning system connected to monitor system. d. A regular program of siren testing. First Monday over every month at noon. d+ Instruct all campers what siren means and where to egress to higher ground. e. State purchase the property of Camp Mystic for the purpose of a robust memorial to honor each and every victim of the flood. It is to last 1000 years. f. Consider zoning that won't allow masses of people camping right by the river. That is if people don't accept the sirens. g. Have one or two point person who understand what the sirens mean and can get up clear headed at 2:00AM to instruct emergency personnel. Have either the University of Texas and/or Texas A&M civil engineering department along with hydrologists model the July 4 flood and model future cases to understand the development of the flood. I can think of other things. But early recognition of water rise is imperative and AI monitoring could recognize this. There are likely class 1, 2 and 3 floods.
All seem like good ideas. I’m not familiar with the area, but looking at a satellite map looks like a lot of remote area, how do you cover it all with sirens? From what I’ve read a lot of that area doesn’t even have cellphone coverage.
It’s difficult to legislate safety, people want to be out camping in remote areas. There has to be some kind of balance, people have to realize just living life carries a degree of risk.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 7:47 pm to LegendInMyMind
No son, I excelled. Apparently you are still in Kindergarden.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 9:01 pm to bluedragon
quote:
No son, I excelled
Sure......sure.
And I ain't your damn son, bitch.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 9:06 pm to bluedragon
quote:
What warning? BS
The ones issued by the National Weather Service. Those warnings were very timely. They also were disseminated via NOAA weather radio. Unfortunately, most people don’t utilize NOAA weather radios. The National Weather Service can only do so much. People have to utilize tools that allow them to receive the watches & warnings that the NWS issues.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 9:20 pm to AGGIES
If you don't live in this region, you would never understand. It hardly ever rains here. It was very hard for me to get use to no rain for 4 or 5 years, I am from Louisiana which gets plenty of rain. And when it rains that much so quickly, it just builds up quickly because of the rock foundation of soil, it does NOT soak in ,it just flows and builds momentum.
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