Weather gurus, this time of the year anything outside of 4 day forecast is just guessing?

no, next!

I think it's a little bit longer than that, right? Although it definitely seems like it reverts to historical averages at some point

I'm basing that entirely off the fact that 10 day forecasts for Atlanta in October are like

95 94 96 94 93 93 93 85 85 84

TDsngumbo, you seem to know your shite. What kind of winter are we looking at, especially with all the cold fronts we've been getting. I'm unsure if this is normal or not.

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I'm basing that entirely off the fact that 10 day forecasts for Atlanta in October are like

95 94 96 94 93 93 93 85 85 84

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Long term forecast (greater than 5 days) May though October seem easier than November through April in southern U.S. It's not until a disturbance in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf start making the forecast uncertain during the warm months.

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you're the political boards official climate scientist,

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Climate is not weather.


Unless it's record breaking heat.

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look at the 10 day forecast on weather.com and it looks like around the 4-5 day mark the forecast pretty much revert to the historical average in terms of high and low temps. Is that right?

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Kind of. They're reasonably locked in the 48 to 72 hours, they probably have a 90% solution for the 96 to 144 hours out and a 75% solution in that 7 to 10 day range - now that's primarily on the temperature.

Their ideas about when and where there will be precipitation don't age nearly as well 10 days out. Probably about half as accurate on precipitation, in my experience.

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TDsngumbo, you seem to know your shite.

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He doesn't

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I don't know man. I just watch the models all the time during hurricane season and winter because I am a weather fanatic. I've learned quite a bit over the years but I'm no expert.

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I am no meteorologist, but from what people say on this board all the following predictions have a better track record than meteorologists:

Throwing spaghetti on the wall and see what sticks

Use a Ouija board

Consult a magic 8 ball

Flip a coin

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Yeah I think they're good at picking up the large scale things (cold front, big storm system) pretty early on. It's the nuances (rainfall amounts, rain/snow line, exact timing) that aren't fine tuned. Winter precip is especially difficult, as a 1-2 degree difference either way, or just a little more/less moisture has major implications.

Fewer factors go into the summer pattern forecasts.

There's a ridge over nearish Florida and sometimes a stout high over the plains. The shape and strength of those dictate most of the summer weather. On the edge? We'll get more rain and it won't be as hot (bc rain). Under the dome? Hot and no rain.

A call of 93 for the high, 73 for the low and 40% chance of afternoon showers. That'll be right pretty often in the summertime here.

Come the transition to winter, it's the jet stream dips and mid latitude cyclones. The variables at play increase quite a bit. We got airmasses mixing a lot more, polar jet stream dips, the subtropical jet coming to play more.