Weather for Monday, May 20. Attention: N TX, Cen. OK, S KS High risk forecast

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Monday, 20 May 2019 could be a higher-end severe weather day. Only the 18th time @NWSSPC has issued a Day 3 Moderate Risk. Last time it was issued was on 07 May 2015.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...

SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY... ...Southern Plains... A complicated, yet potentially higher-end severe weather scenario will unfold across the southern Plains throughout the forecast period. Height falls associated with an approaching longwave trough centered over Arizona will overlie a strong surface dryline along the New Mexico/Texas border, resulting in a north-south oriented band of storms in that area around 12Z or so. These storms will migrate northeastward and contain a threat for hail and damaging wind gusts throughout the morning due to steep mid-level lapse rates and supercellular wind profiles. A tornado threat may also exist on the southern end of this activity - especially where convection can become surface-based and remain discrete amidst with slightly higher boundary layer moisture (i.e., upper 60s to 70s dewpoints). The evolution of this early morning complex will impact the severe risk in downstream areas of Oklahoma and northwest Texas through the afternoon and evening. A variety of operational models and CAMS suggest that some portions of this MCS will interact with the northward-moving surface warm front and possibly retard its movement into northern portions of the outlook area (near the OK/KS border area). Meanwhile, most model solutions suggest the development of isolated convection out ahead of any ongoing MCS activity - with this risk most evident across portions of southwestern Oklahoma and vicinity. These storms are expected to reside in a environmental parameter space supportive of all severe hazards, including significant hail and strong tornadoes, and this risk should be maximized as long as discrete, cellular convection can persist through the forecast period. This risk will become further enhanced by an increasingly strong low-level jet across the region during the early evening should storms maintain a relatively discrete mode.

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