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Started By
Message
re: Vox.com says murders are up but crime is not
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:22 am to PhillyTiger90
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:22 am to PhillyTiger90
quote:
murder rates increased in cities run by Democrats and Republicans
Pretty much any population center that is big enough to be called a city is run by a Democrat and has been for decades.
0
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:22 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
love it, can't wait to see people flee.
It's enjoyable until you look around and realizing where they are fleeing to.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:23 am to stout
It's not the defunding talk. It's the tolerance of rage impulses.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:30 am to stout
Just looked up a list of large cities by party affiliation:
LINK
Jacksonville, FL: LINK /
Fort Worth, TX: LINK
I imagine I could keep going down the list. The reality is that people who murder people don't give a lot of thought in the moment to whether they will get caught. If they did, they probably wouldn't murder people. The idea that potential murderers are sitting there thinking "well, I probably wouldn't try to kill this person last year, but police funding is down this year, so my odds of success have increased X%..."
LINK
Jacksonville, FL: LINK /
Fort Worth, TX: LINK
I imagine I could keep going down the list. The reality is that people who murder people don't give a lot of thought in the moment to whether they will get caught. If they did, they probably wouldn't murder people. The idea that potential murderers are sitting there thinking "well, I probably wouldn't try to kill this person last year, but police funding is down this year, so my odds of success have increased X%..."
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:32 am to stout
quote:
What’s going on?
Every major metro PD said they're no longer arresting people for dozens of crimes, so that's what's going on. Crime didn't stop, they just stopped locking people up for committing crime.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:32 am to Joshjrn
quote:
The idea that potential murderers are sitting there thinking "well, I probably wouldn't try to kill this person last year, but police funding is down this year, so my odds of success have increased X%..."
So IYO a stronger police presence would in no way reduce murders?
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:36 am to stout
quote:
So IYO a stronger police presence would in no way reduce murders?
Depends on what you mean by stronger. If you're talking about putting a highly trained, efficient police officer on literally every street corner, you would likely see a reduction, but even then, probably not as much as you'd think. You'd also have the totalitarian police state that my friends on the right claim to want to avoid.
But increasing police as an investigatory force? No, I don't think this has much impact on the murder rate. Just doesn't mesh with what experienced handling murders. I can count on one hand the number of "well thought out" murders I've seen in the last decade.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:42 am to stout
quote:
So IYO a stronger police presence would in no way reduce murders?
Weaker presence plus “bail reform”.
30 people have have charged with murder or attempted murder while out on a felony bond in Chicago this year.
Latest example, guy shot a woman 10 times this week while out on bond for felony gun possession and 2 counts of felony battery of a police officer. Oh by the way, this guy has 5 previous felony convictions. But hey, it’s racist to set bond at a high level.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:45 am to stout
If you don't arrest people for crimes and let them go free then sure I guess by that metric there's "less" crime.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:46 am to Joshjrn
quote:
No, I don't think this has much impact on the murder rate
Of course it does. Not as a deterrent but in taking people off the street, it damn sure does. If you can't solve crimes in a timely manner, do you think gang bangers are stopping at one incident?
Reduced police presence + bail reform + soft DA's = Sky high crime rate.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:48 am to Bruco
quote:
Weaker presence plus “bail reform”.
30 people have have charged with murder or attempted murder while out on a felony bond in Chicago this year.
Latest example, guy shot a woman 10 times this week while out on bond for felony gun possession and 2 counts of felony battery of a police officer. Oh by the way, this guy has 5 previous felony convictions. But hey, it’s racist to set bond at a high level.
As a rule, people who discuss bail reform don't hold the position that no one should be held pre-trial. What they (and I include myself in this) are saying is that monetary bond is a terrible system for ensuring 1. public safety and 2. that the person will make court appearances.
Setting a monetary bond for every charge only succeeds in making sure poor people remain incarcerated no matter their charge, and that wealthy people will remain free no matter their charge. And with the rise of of private surety (read: bondsman), bond no longer has any purpose in ensuring people make their court dates. If I set your bond at $50,000, you can either come up with the full amount cash/property, or you can pay a bondsman $6,000 (12%). But here's the rub: if you come up with the full $50k, you get your money back at the end of the case as long as you make all of your court dates. If you go through a bondsman, you lose your $6,000 no matter what, even if your case gets dismissed the next day. So there is literally zero financial incentive for you to return for your court dates.
The federal system makes far more sense. Instead of setting a monetary bond for everyone, you have a detention hearing. The Court makes a decision on whether this person is a flight risk or public danger. If so, they are detained. If they are not, they are released without bond. It's the rare case that monetary bond is used as a middle ground.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:49 am to stout
Actively not enforcing laws doesn’t mean crime is down. You can’t exactly ignore murders.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:50 am to Joshjrn
quote:
The Court makes a decision on whether this person is a flight risk or public danger.
We tried this, our crime rates skyrocketed. CJ reform was ended after less than three years.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:51 am to Joshjrn
quote:
Joshjrn
Great post.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:53 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
We tried this, our crime rates skyrocketed. CJ reform was ended after less than three years.
The federal system appears to have been doing just fine for the last several decades. What, exactly, was the "this" that you tried? For example, you can obviously swing too far in either direction, by finding too few people need to be detained, or by detaining everyone.
This post was edited on 7/25/21 at 11:53 am
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:53 am to ell_13
quote:
Actively not enforcing laws doesn’t mean crime is down.
We lost two of our biggest stores. Closed down because crime rings located here during CJ reform.
They were losing as much in theft as they were selling. I watched a guy walk in, take a very expensive torch set out of a hardware store, and calmly walk out.
We called it "catch and release" and it was a fricking nightmare.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:55 am to Joshjrn
The main thing I want to see is equity in sentencing. Don't give a guy 5 years in one state when a guy two states away gets 75 years for the same damn crime. That's not justice. Don't let overworked, lazy, or otherwise useless DAs circumvent the system because it is too broken to fix.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:55 am to Joshjrn
quote:
The federal system appears to have been doing just fine for the last several decades.
The feds aren't dealing with your local hood rat violence, meth heads and crime rings.
This post was edited on 7/25/21 at 11:56 am
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:56 am to stout
Black on black murder doesnt count as crime with vox.
Dont read vox or the atlantic.
Dont read vox or the atlantic.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:56 am to Joshjrn
quote:
As a rule, people who discuss bail reform don't hold the position that no one should be held pre-trial.
That does not appear to be the way many of these judges are handling it. If you aren’t going to use high bail as a proxy for no bail, then you need to lower the bar on who gets detained pre trial.
Just setting it low for everyone not on a murder charge does not seem to a good system for public safety
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