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Message
re: Violent crime dropped an estimated 3% in the United States last year, FBI crime data shows
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:32 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:32 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
weakness" is subjectively changing whether data is real or fraudulent based along the spectrum of what the person wants the data to say.
No, weakness is demanding that all datasets be viewed as either valid or all viewed as invalid and ignoring the actual examples of problems with data reporting.
That’s you.
It’s a very logical and plausible possibility that the spike in crime led to the manipulation of the data to achieve a desired result.
More importantly people have a lived experience. They know that crime is not decreasing. Every day they see crimes expanding into areas that used to be safe.
1
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:32 pm to RLDSC FAN
Sure clark
Those are numbers after cities cheery pick thru them. Not factual numbers.
#FactsoverurFeelings
Those are numbers after cities cheery pick thru them. Not factual numbers.
#FactsoverurFeelings
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:33 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:No, YOU are.
You're trying to argue it's perfect data
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:34 pm to Gaggle
quote:
Brain rot is thinking you can only have notions based on government numbers that are easily manipulated
This is literally what the doom casters are using to say crime is spiking
That and "common sense" silliness.
quote:
A normal person knows which parts of town are high crime and to avoid, they know when things get better or worse, and they do this without knowing the numbers.
This would only be a point if the numbers disagreed in your metaphor
Update: they do not
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:34 pm to RLDSC FAN
If the FBI said it, then it’s true.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:35 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
You don't have to trust them. You can look up the data on these cities yourself. I have for like 4+ cities in this thread alone.
You mean like NOPD?
quote:
The New Orleans Police Department under-counted sex crime data that was furnished to the FBI for its national reporting program for the years 2021 and 2022, department officials said on Tuesday.
quote:
Civil rights attorney Mary Howell and a researcher flagged a stark discrepancy between the number of aggravated and simple rapes NOPD furnished in weekly reports and those contained in year-end reports, and a stark and inconsistent drop in rapes reported from 2020 to 2022.
quote:
But advocates say the under-count may already have prevented Louisiana from getting its due of federal funds that are calculated based on population, the share of state crime reported in a district, and the crime rate within the district, according to a September letter from the city's Office of Criminal Justice Coordination.
LINK
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:36 pm to moneyg
quote:
No, weakness is demanding that all datasets be viewed as either valid or all viewed as invalid a
That is using their logic, not mine.
You're confusing their bad logic and applying me showing why it's bad, as me making their logical leaps.
I am glad you agree that their logic is bad.
quote:
It’s a very logical and plausible possibility that the spike in crime led to the manipulation of the data to achieve a desired result.
Why would the result be desirable?
The follow up will be: why did they let this undesirable spike to occur in the first place? All they had to do was lie.
quote:
More importantly people have a lived experience. They know that crime is not decreasing. Every day they see crimes expanding into areas that used to be safe.
Exactly the same arguments used to say the 80s were safe than pre-Covid America. EXACTLY. I've heard all of this silliness for years.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:37 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:No, you're using them to say crime is falling
This is literally what the doom casters are using to say crime is spiking
quote:A point? Update: your numbers do disagree with my notion
This would only be a point if the numbers disagreed in your metaphor Update: they do not
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:37 pm to lsufan1971
quote:
You mean like NOPD?
Yes. I posted the data earlier. Violent crime is decreasing.
quote:
The New Orleans Police Department under-counted sex crime data that was furnished to the FBI
So had Nola been included, the FBI data would show even less crime.
I don't think this is the argument you're trying to make
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:38 pm to Gaggle
quote:
No, you're using them to say crime is falling
From a spike, which was based on "notions based on government numbers that are easily manipulated"
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:41 pm to SlowFlowPro
Your argument is trust the data. NOPD has been fricking terrible at reporting crime data. Most major cities are terrible at it. Houston has a big problem right now with thousands of cases never being turned over to the DA's office.
My counter argument to yours was trust the cities that are reporting. I didn't say trust because its falling. The data being reported is flawed plain and simple.
Go read the Marshall project article on it.
LINK
My counter argument to yours was trust the cities that are reporting. I didn't say trust because its falling. The data being reported is flawed plain and simple.
Go read the Marshall project article on it.
quote:
In Florida, however, only 49 of the state’s more than 500 agencies submitted data to the FBI last year, representing less than 8% of the state’s police departments. Some of the largest agencies, like the Miami Police Department, the Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office, and the St. Petersburg Police Department, are missing from the national context.
quote:
When the FBI released its 2021 national crime data last fall, it couldn’t say if crime went up, went down, or stayed the same. The FBI concluded that all three scenarios could be possible because of the gaps in the data collection.
LINK
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:43 pm to RLDSC FAN
lol, everyone is lying to us
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:45 pm to SlowFlowPro
The spike was observed and continues, regardless of the numbers. Congratulations that it perhaps kind of matched for a little while. You are now arguing your own numbers, which you presented as the FACTS and DATA, are useless in order to set a a logical trap and win the argument. Please, abandon your entire notion in order to win the logical point. You win, all the numbers are useless including the spike. So we will just discuss our anecdotal echo chamber observations and you admittedly can't have notions or participate. Congratulations again.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 12:46 pm
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:45 pm to lsufan1971
quote:
Your argument is trust the data. NOPD has been fricking terrible at reporting crime data. Most major cities are terrible at it. Houston has a big problem right now with thousands of cases never being turned over to the DA's office.
Well since we can't rely on the data, then there was no spike, either.
See how that works? You don't get to only proclaim data legitimate when it conforms to your preconceived notions, and then discard any data that refutes them.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:47 pm to RLDSC FAN
How stupid do these spooks think we are..?
We are the ones driving around with guns on our persons to protect our families from these "decreased crime numbers", drug zombies, and homeless beggers...
Bullcrap.
We are the ones driving around with guns on our persons to protect our families from these "decreased crime numbers", drug zombies, and homeless beggers...
Bullcrap.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:47 pm to Gaggle
quote:
The spike was observed and continues, regardless of the numbers.
And so is the decrease.
quote:
You are now arguing your own numbers, which you presented as the FACTS and DATA, are useless in order to set a a logical trap and win the argument.
I am not.
Don't confuse me showing your "logic" is silly with me adopting your "logic".
quote:
You win, all the numbers are useless including the spike.
That's your argument based on your "logic"
I'm not the one attacking the data. You are.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:48 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:statistics are legitimate when they back up what I want to be true
This is literally what the doom casters are using to say crime is spiking
When they don't? They are manipulated or don't matter or don't capture the full picture
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 12:49 pm
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:49 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:You said you couldn't do observations
And so is the decrease.
quote:But you are, you attacked the data of the spike when it was pointed out the many ways the data is manipulatable
I'm not the one attacking the data. You are.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:50 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
statistics are legitimate when they back up what I want to be true
When they don't? They are manipulated or don't matter or don't capture the full picture
Correct.
Also don't forget my most recent axiom: when the data proves my argument wrong, I'll just add another layer to the conspiracy
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:50 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
See how that works? You don't get to only proclaim data legitimate when it conforms to your preconceived notions, and then discard any data that refutes them.
You aren't reading what I am saying. My argument is that the data is flawed. That is my argument. You narrative is that its not and we should accept the data even though its been shown to be incomplete and inaccurate.
The NIBRS reporting system is overly complicated and has too many error reporting failures. My old system had 120K lines of handwritten code just to catch the reporting errors.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 12:51 pm
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