- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Violent crime dropped an estimated 3% in the United States last year, FBI crime data shows
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:19 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:19 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Violent crime is decreasing
Other than baton rouge I bet the vast majority of the other cities that you listed are experiencing a similar trend of decreasing violent crime
How would you really know they are experiencing a decrease since there are far fewer police working in those cities thus by the time they go to take a report the victims/perps have long left the scene.
Now if you want a better representative of what the crime rates actually look like then compare the DOJ's National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) with the FBI data? Strangely they are both trending in different directions!
1
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:20 pm to Gaggle
quote:
because that's not the observation.
I anticipated this, hence the part you ignored. I'll ask again
quote:
Do you have personal experience in all of the cities for which I've posted data? Any of them?
quote:
What if you didn't have data?
Then I certainly wouldn't be taking a side in this discussion.
quote:
What would you think of the rate of violent crime over recent years?
That would depend on how you define "recent years"
I mean, you still have people who look at the 80s on here as some halcyon period when it was more violent than anytime in their lives.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:20 pm to Gaggle
quote:
Why do you think so many people here think it's going up?
Is it media manipulation for political purposes? Because that would be, like, a conspiracy theory.
According to the BOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey, since 2020:
—Violent crime is up 37%
—Rape is up 42%
—Robbery is up 63%
—Stranger violence is up 61%
The NCVS captures crimes whether they are reported to the police or not. In the 2023 NCVS, crime victims conveyed that a majority—55%—of violent victimizations weren’t reported to the police, while 70% of property-crime victimizations weren’t reported. The FBI publishes data only
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:20 pm to RLDSC FAN
When you stop reporting crimes or reclassify them numbers go down.
It’s magic
It’s magic
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:21 pm to lsufan1971
quote:
The FBI has been doing data modeling to fill in the missing data gaps for these large agencies. Their algorithms take historical trends and comes up with a crime data set. Many folks inside the industry are critical of the modeling because it’s almost impossible to model crime in a way that is consistent with actual reporting.
I understand this. You can look to the data from the individual cites, though, which largely tracks the modeling.
quote:
I don’t doubt for a solitary second the FBI is manipulating stats to feed a narrative.
You don't have to trust them. You can look up the data on these cities yourself. I have for like 4+ cities in this thread alone.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:23 pm to Gaggle
quote:
Why do you think so many people here think it's going up?
Cognitive biases all the way to partisan brain rot.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:23 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
They're either manipulating the sata or they're not.
This is a logical flaw and reveals your weakness.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:24 pm to MrLSU
quote:
How would you really know they are experiencing a decrease since there are far fewer police working in those cities thus by the time they go to take a report the victims/perps have long left the scene.
Which applied in 2022, as well.
And it's hard to cover up a murder.
quote:
Now if you want a better representative of what the crime rates actually look like then compare the DOJ's National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)
That is actually a terrible thing to reference but I'm not shocked it's being cited again (as it's made the rounds in the echo chamber).
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:24 pm to SlowFlowPro
Are you really unable to understand the vast amounts of human, political, prosecutorial, enforcement manipulation factors inherently involved in any crime statistics?
I mean, you have heard of how places have decreased crime rates by reclassifying certain crimes as misdemeanors, just as an example?
You are actually aware that is is no way like reading the number off a thermometer?
I still want to know what you think of the robbery report BY VICTIM rate going from 64% to 44%? That is a deep sociological phenomenon with many unquantifiable causes that can be discussed at length. That should be enough to help you understand that these are not and can never be just raw scientific numbers of data, and that you are foolish to ever consider crime numbers as FACTS and DATA
I mean, you have heard of how places have decreased crime rates by reclassifying certain crimes as misdemeanors, just as an example?
You are actually aware that is is no way like reading the number off a thermometer?
I still want to know what you think of the robbery report BY VICTIM rate going from 64% to 44%? That is a deep sociological phenomenon with many unquantifiable causes that can be discussed at length. That should be enough to help you understand that these are not and can never be just raw scientific numbers of data, and that you are foolish to ever consider crime numbers as FACTS and DATA
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:25 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:Then you shouldn't take a side, Because you don't have data in the manner you think. You have human reporting and political/enforcement maneuvering.
Then I certainly wouldn't be taking a side in this discussion.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:25 pm to moneyg
quote:
This is a logical flaw a
It is not.
quote:
and reveals your weakness.
"weakness" is subjectively changing whether data is real or fraudulent based along the spectrum of what the person wants the data to say.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:25 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
You don't have to trust them. You can look up the data on these cities yourself. I have for like 4+ cities in this thread alone.
Are you advocating that we discount the Bureau of Justice's NCVS data?
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:26 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:What biases and why do they have them?
Cognitive biases all the way to partisan brain rot.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:26 pm to Gaggle
quote:
Are you really unable to understand the vast amounts of human, political, prosecutorial, enforcement manipulation factors inherently involved in any crime statistics?
Do these not apply to the crime spike as well?
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:27 pm to MrLSU
quote:
Are you advocating that we discount the Bureau of Justice's NCVS data?
No. I said HE didn't have to trust the FBI, because he can look up the individual cities' data.
It all effectively says the same thing. q
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:28 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:Yes, they do. Once again.
Do these not apply to the crime spike as well?
So, since they do apply in all cases, inherently. Does this not mean that it's not actually DATA and FACTS in the way you present it?
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:30 pm to Gaggle
quote:
What biases and
A lot of the doom casting is a 4-year melt b/c their team didn't win in 2020. When the out group is in power, society goes to shite in their eyes.
When Trump wins in November, you'll see the left take up the charade again like they did 2017-2020.
quote:
why do they have them?
In/out group dynamics which have been amplified recently due to a few factors, promoting emotional-irrational thinking and pushing larger populations to the poles. You do this enough and with our ready-made echo chambers (thanks to social media), you get partisan brain rot
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:31 pm to RLDSC FAN
Check the records on how many things are being classified as an "incident" and not a crime.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:32 pm to Gaggle
quote:
So, since they do apply in all cases, inherently. Does this not mean that it's not actually DATA and FACTS in the way you present it?
No it's still data.
You're trying to argue it's perfect data and likely changing the scope of what's being analyzed. I never said that we know exactly how many of these crimes occur, which is the standard you are embedding in this question. I have spoken in terms of trends and aggregate specifically to avoid this.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:32 pm to SlowFlowPro
Brain rot is thinking you can only have notions based on government numbers that are easily manipulated
A normal person knows which parts of town are high crime and to avoid, they know when things get better or worse, and they do this without knowing the numbers.
A normal person knows which parts of town are high crime and to avoid, they know when things get better or worse, and they do this without knowing the numbers.
Page 6 of 10
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News