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Started By
Message
re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks
Posted on 7/1/21 at 7:13 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 7/1/21 at 7:13 am to Bobby OG Johnson
4
Posted on 7/1/21 at 7:25 am to Bobby OG Johnson
If that song gets stuck in my head so help me God
Posted on 7/1/21 at 7:26 am to The Boat
quote:
Aren’t y’all farmers?
Oh no you don't, you sumbitch.
Bingo has to be organic. You can't bait it into happening.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 7:26 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 7/1/21 at 7:27 am to Jwho77
quote:
That's a whole lot more Florida than previous updates.
frick
Posted on 7/1/21 at 7:32 am to whiskey over ice
quote:
If that song gets stuck in my head so help me God
Posted on 7/1/21 at 7:40 am to rds dc
Some pretty big short term differences in the models this morning are generating some significantly different solutions. The Euro keeps this weak and quickly sweeps it up into a trough that is rounding the Canadian ridge. The GFS is stronger and slower.
The ensembles highlight this nicely:
00z Euro EPS through D5
00z GEFS through D5
Through 48hrs the Euro has a pretty disorganized system with a weak H5 signature, while the GFS has a deeper more organized system.
00z Euro
00z GFS
And by Sunday evening the Euro is sweeping this away while the GFS has it anchored in the Caribbean.
The Euro performed poorly in the tropics last season and the NHC track currently leans heavy towards the GFS.
The ensembles highlight this nicely:
00z Euro EPS through D5
00z GEFS through D5
Through 48hrs the Euro has a pretty disorganized system with a weak H5 signature, while the GFS has a deeper more organized system.
00z Euro
00z GFS
And by Sunday evening the Euro is sweeping this away while the GFS has it anchored in the Caribbean.
The Euro performed poorly in the tropics last season and the NHC track currently leans heavy towards the GFS.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 7:45 am to rds dc
Hopefully she’s as wet as Elsa jean
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:13 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:18 am to The Boat
Not sure why you’d think that? 
This post was edited on 7/1/21 at 9:21 am
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:21 am to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
My concern right now for the Gulf Coast is that Elsa has been consistently south of the model initialization. Meaning more and western component in her path potentially as she creeps towards the Gulf. It's such a low confidence forecast right now.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:22 am to rds dc
A bit of a SW shift in the 12z early cycle guidance with the NHC track down the middle. The next 24 - 36 hrs will play a big role in the future track with a stronger system potentially resulting in additional SW shifts and a weaker system producing the opposite.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:25 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
Tropical Storm Elsa has formed in the Atlantic Ocean. Yes, I know. You hear Elsa, and you automatically think of Albert Einstein’s second wife, and first cousin Elsa Einstein. I know that’s an obvious observation, but please, let it go.
Ok I got that out of my system. Elsa could be a Florida threat, or could possibly hook just east of Florida. For our purposes, it’ll be a big stack of nothing, so we can go back to our regularly scheduled summer heat. But today is the first day of July. That means we are just a month away from August, which puts September in pretty clear view. After that we might even see a cold front or two in October, and by November, it’ll be pretty comfortable. Then comes the December cold, which never bothered me anyway.
Nick Mik got jokes
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:29 am to rt3
quote:
After that we might even see a cold front or two in October, and by November, it’ll be pretty comfortable.
I can't wait. Bring on October.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:30 am to sta4ever
quote:
I’ll go ahead and say this before the weather channel, but this is reminding me of Katrina
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:54 am to Cosmo
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:54 am to rds dc
that thing is definitely not hitting in that cone of where it says its hitting.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 9:55 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
My concern right now for the Gulf Coast is that Elsa has been consistently south of the model initialization. Meaning more and western component in her path potentially as she creeps towards the Gulf. It's such a low confidence forecast right now.
I'm not sure that the "southward" shifts at this point play a big role in the future track. The system is currently dealing with northerly shear and this is resulting in some downshear convection which can result in a southward trend in consolidation of the LLC. However, strength and organization of the system over the next 48hrs will play a bigger role in track. A deeper system will be more influenced by the upper level flow than a shallow weak system.
This post was edited on 7/1/21 at 10:00 am
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:07 am to rds dc
Without looking at the upper levels, I guess we will have UL ridge West-Upper trough east basically keeping the Gulf closed during next 4-8 days ?
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:10 am to rds dc
Have you looked at the GFS ensembles? That's a pretty significant shift west, with a much bigger cluster over the Louisiana coast now.
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