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re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks

Posted on 6/29/21 at 9:47 am to
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
164659 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 9:47 am to
Cool front this weekend baw?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 11:05 am to
quote:

The models like 97L Invest > 95W


Does have more potential than 95L. The 06z HFAS 95L domain captures what appears to be 97L and has it south of Jamaica in 5 days.
Posted by LSUfanNkaty
LC, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
11738 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 11:08 am to
quote:

95L domain captures what appears to be 97L


Posted by LSUfanNkaty
LC, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
11738 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 11:18 am to
quote:

6z run goes a little west and weaker. Almost into Cameron.



Well frick me....
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 11:20 am to
12z runs it into cuba though and loses it as it gets into the gulf though
Posted by LSUfanNkaty
LC, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
11738 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 11:36 am to
quote:

12z runs it into cuba though and loses it as it gets into the gulf though


Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67043 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 11:41 am to
Don't get too high or low on a particular GFS run at this point. Just look for trends. There aren't many trends with system yet. GFS is gonna be all over the place with it.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 11:47 am to
Yeah, and I'm generally bearish on development out toward the MDR as we get into July.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 12:02 pm to
12z HMON is spinning up 97L. It didn't do anything with 95L but climo and SSTs would still argue against this happening that fast.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67043 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 12:09 pm to
Is HWRF and HMON only storm-specific? Or is there a wider view somewhere other than Tropical Tidbits? They annoy me sometimes not being able to zoom out for a bigger picture.
Posted by KiwiHead
Auckland, NZ
Member since Jul 2014
33227 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 12:29 pm to
Which one should Gulf States pay attention to?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 12:30 pm to
quote:

Is HWRF and HMON only storm-specific? Or is there a wider view somewhere other than Tropical Tidbits? They annoy me sometimes not being able to zoom out for a bigger picture.



A little while after it's released, you can see the parent imagery where it's zoomed out.
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
14735 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 12:55 pm to
Posted by Riolobo
On the lake
Member since Mar 2017
4985 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 12:56 pm to
Oh shite. It’s happening again.
Posted by PhillyTiger90
Member since Dec 2015
11328 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 1:48 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67043 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

A little while after it's released, you can see the parent imagery where it's zoomed out.

I didn't downvote you, btw.
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
108406 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

If we review the last 55 years and count up the fish storms we should get a good idea how many we missed in the past.


You forget global warming/climate change.

I bet there were zero fish killers until the 1950s.
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43474 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 2:07 pm to
Posted by Riolobo
On the lake
Member since Mar 2017
4985 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 2:34 pm to
Beach trips to the redneck rivera for the 4th may be in trouble.
Posted by AP83
Cottonport
Member since Sep 2009
2825 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 2:45 pm to
We fly into Punta Cana Thursday morning. This thing has me nervous. Not sure what t expect.

Are there any time frames on the progress of 97l and where it will be on certain days?
This post was edited on 6/29/21 at 2:47 pm
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